We use cookies to help you navigate efficiently and perform certain functions. You will find detailed information about all cookies under each consent category below.
The cookies that are categorized as "Necessary" are stored on your browser as they are essential for enabling the basic functionalities of the site. ...
Necessary cookies are required to enable the basic features of this site, such as providing secure log-in or adjusting your consent preferences. These cookies do not store any personally identifiable data.
Functional cookies help perform certain functionalities like sharing the content of the website on social media platforms, collecting feedback, and other third-party features.
Analytical cookies are used to understand how visitors interact with the website. These cookies help provide information on metrics such as the number of visitors, bounce rate, traffic source, etc.
Performance cookies are used to understand and analyze the key performance indexes of the website which helps in delivering a better user experience for the visitors.
Advertisement cookies are used to provide visitors with customized advertisements based on the pages you visited previously and to analyze the effectiveness of the ad campaigns.
More accurate than the media.
66° F by 5 pm. The SPC still shows a marginal chance of severe weather. Storm start time looks to be around 4am Sunday morning. Strength wise it looks to be a strong thunderstorm. Models are not showing any severe level systems but cannot rule it out. Tornadoes not so much, but keep in mind, tornadoes can happen anywhere at any time and any season. MP
Here is the latest on this year’s severe weather forecast for spring and summer of 2025. Keep in mind this forecast is subject to change.
Key Points
Spring and summer 2025 in Jackson County, Missouri, are forecasted to be warmer than normal, influenced by La Niña conditions. Precipitation will be mixed, with some areas potentially experiencing above-average rainfall, increasing the risk of flooding, especially from tropical systems.
Due to La Niña, tornado activity is expected to be above average during spring, with a higher frequency of severe thunderstorms bringing strong winds and large hail. Summer may see continued severe weather, exacerbated by warmer temperatures.
This report provides a detailed analysis of the severe weather forecast for Jackson County, Missouri, for the spring (March to May) and summer (June to August) of 2025, based on current climate predictions, historical patterns, and regional meteorological data. The analysis incorporates insights from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), Severe Weather Europe, local news reports, and other authoritative sources, ensuring a thorough understanding of potential severe weather events.
The forecast indicates that spring and summer 2025 will be warmer than normal across Jackson County, Missouri, aligning with broader trends for the southern United States under La Niña conditions. The CPC’s seasonal outlook, updated as of February 2025, suggests a higher probability of above-average temperatures, particularly in the Southern Tier, which includes Missouri. This warming trend is attributed to the influence of La Niña, which shifts weather patterns to favor warmer conditions in the south.
Precipitation forecasts are mixed, with regional variations. The CPC’s spring forecast (March to May) shows an equal-to-higher probability of above-average precipitation in parts of the eastern United States, including the Southeast, where Jackson County, Missouri, is located. However, some areas, particularly the Southwest and Southern Plains, are expected to be drier, and the Southeast may experience localized heavy rain events, especially from tropical systems. For summer, the Almanac.com’s extended forecast suggests hotter and drier conditions, with potential for tropical storms in mid-July and hurricanes in late August, which could bring significant rainfall.
Tornado activity is expected to be above average during the spring months, driven by La Niña conditions. Research from the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) and NOAA Climate.gov indicates that La Niña is linked to a higher frequency of tornadoes in the southern United States, particularly in spring, due to increased moisture and instability. This is supported by historical data showing that La Niña years often see more tornado outbreaks, with the southern Plains and Southeast, including Missouri, being particularly susceptible.
Severe thunderstorms are also likely to be more frequent, especially in spring and early summer, due to warmer temperatures and increased moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. These storms can bring strong winds, large hail, and heavy rain, increasing the risk of flash flooding. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) does not provide specific seasonal tornado forecasts for individual counties, but general patterns suggest an elevated risk for Jackson County, Missouri, given its location.
Jackson County, Missouri, located in the southeastern part of the state, is particularly vulnerable to severe weather due to its coastal proximity and exposure to Gulf moisture. Local news reports, such as those from the Clarion Ledger, highlight that Mississippi will be warm in spring, with readiness advised for storms and severe weather. The NWS Jackson/Mississippi office, covering the region, provides current weather updates but lacks specific long-term forecasts for 2025. However, based on regional trends, the combination of warmer temperatures, increased tornado activity, and potential hurricane landfalls suggests a heightened severe weather risk.
This table is derived from CPC seasonal outlooks, Severe Weather Europe forecasts, and historical La Niña impacts, providing a structured view of expected conditions.
The analysis began with a web search for severe weather forecasts specific to Jackson County, Missouri, for spring and summer 2025, using platforms like the National Weather Service (NWS), CPC, and local news outlets. Initial searches revealed short-term forecasts for the city of Jackson, necessitating a focus on county-level data through CPC seasonal maps and regional forecasts. Additional searches targeted tornado activity under La Niña, and local meteorological reports, ensuring a comprehensive dataset. The CPC’s seasonal outlook for March to May 2025, accessed via CPC Seasonal Outlook, and Severe Weather Europe’s article on spring 2025, found at Spring 2025 Forecast, were pivotal. Local insights were supplemented by the Clarion Ledger’s report, available at Mississippi Spring Forecast, and historical tornado data from NOAA Climate.gov at Tornadoes and La Niña.
Conclusion
The severe weather forecast for Jackson County, Missouri, for spring and summer 2025 indicates a period of heightened risk, with above-average tornado activity in spring, warmer temperatures throughout, mixed precipitation with flooding potential, and increased hurricane risk in summer. Residents should prepare for these conditions by monitoring local weather updates, ensuring emergency plans are in place, and staying informed through NWS alerts and regional forecasts.
Key Citations
Even though we have a warming period, snow. has not left just yet. If this holds out we could see more significant snow up through March 11th. Keep in mind March still has an average snowfall of 1.7” of accumulation. #BlueSpringsWX
Brrr it is -5.2° F out. It feels like -5.2° F and the wind chill is -5.2° F. For those of you that are wondering about this statement. Wind chill and feels like is calculated and unreliable. The media uses it to dramatize and play on your mind. Is it cold? Yes. Can you get frost bite? Yes. We need to respect the weather and be smart about it. It is winter an we should dress for the environment. On another note. Media uses “Polar Vortex” to make things scary. Just a 10k word for a high pressure system coming in from Canada with wind. Just change the channel if they scream dramatic words.
On another note blizzard warning along the gulf of America. A combination of Tonga eruption in 2022 a pull on our planet from the large planets and the weak sun from Grand Solar Minimum. This is just a taste as we progress through the next 10+ years or so.
High of 15° F by 4pm. No precipitation expected. Windy. Dress accordingly. Take care. MP.
Staying ahead of the weather game can make all the difference in our daily lives. From planning outdoor activities to preparing for severe weather conditions, having access to accurate and reliable weather forecasts is crucial. But did you know that creating your own weather forecasts can take your preparedness to the next level?
Understanding the Basics of Weather Forecasting
Weather forecasting is the application of science and technology to predict atmospheric conditions for a given location and time. By collecting quantitative data about current weather conditions, land, and ocean, meteorologists use computer-based models to project how the atmosphere will change. However, human input is still required to pick the best possible model and interpret the results.
Benefits of Creating Your Own Weather Forecasts
Tools and Resources for Creating Your Own Weather Forecasts
Conclusion
Creating your own weather forecasts can be a game-changer for individuals who want to stay ahead of the weather game. By understanding the basics of weather forecasting, utilizing the right tools and resources, and benefiting from improved accuracy and preparedness, you can take control of your weather forecasting needs. So why not give it a try? Start creating your own weather forecasts today and see the difference it can make in your life and you won’t be tied to dramatic media that elevates a minor event.
Good morning. High temperature for today is 35° F give or take. We ended up with a trace more of snow after 6am yesterday. We ended with an official 1.5” of additional snow accumulation for South Blue Springs over the past 48 hours. My measurements are based on 6am measurements every morning.
COOP REPORT 1/11/2025 6AM.
High: 34.0° F
Low: 14.5° F
Observed: 15.4° F
Precipitation: Trace
New Snow: Trace
Total Snow: 6.4”
Skies will be dominated by clouds and you may catch the sunshine periodically. Windy today. Peaking to 31 mph by 1pm.
Precipitation is expected this evening with the possibility of a short bout of freezing rain to a mix of rain start time will be around 10 pm this evening. The good news is it looks to be short lived. It looks to end by midnight. Temperatures will be sitting at 32° F during this time. So if you are out and about, please drive carefully. Models sho none to a trace in ice accumulations.
That is about it for today. MP
WINTER WEATHER UPDATE as of 1/9/2024 at 5:20am. Models moved back an hour for start time. We are now at 8pm this evening. The NWS says mixed precipitation. HRRR shows straight snow. The WPC has shown a shift for chances of snow accumulations to 60% from 50% last night. Jumping down in the weeds for snow amounts. It looks like we could get up to 1.6-1.7 inches of snow over the evening hours. I do not know a stop time as of yet. That will have to wait till the evening.
For today’s temperature. Looks like we will hit a high of 33° F give or take by 2pm today. Winds will pick up a little today and peak to about 26 mph by 2pm. When the snow moves into the area, visibility will reduce significantly, not with blizzard winds like the other day. Skies will be mostly clear today until about 1pm. That is about it. Take care. MP
BRRRR. Drip them faucets tonight. We will hit a low at 7am with a low of -2° F.
Clouds will dominate the evening hours with some periods of mostly clear skies. No precipitation is expected.
Meanwhile over the past two days the sun has caused a lot of activity on our planet. We have FOUR coronal holes on the sun that have cause TWO earthquakes on TWO days. One in Nepal at a 7.1, and one in El Salvador at 6.2.
That is about it for tonight. Have a good evening. MP
As we continue to rely on the media for our daily weather forecasts, have you ever stopped to think about the intricacies of weather forecasting? While the media presents the weather in a straightforward and easy-to-understand manner, there’s more to it than meets the eye.
In this article, we’ll delve into seven secrets about weather forecasting that the media might not be telling you.
Weather forecasting relies heavily on computer models that use complex algorithms to predict future weather patterns. However, these models are only as good as the data they’re fed, and small errors can quickly multiply into significant discrepancies. This happed with yesterday’s event.
The media often presents weather forecasts as fact, but the reality is that these forecasts are based on probabilities and are subject to change. Sometimes they acquire a “God Complex” with pride, thinking the common man cannot make their one forecasts and have to be “educated” in the area of meteorology and knowing all the ten thousand dollar words that can be reduced to simple trims such as rain, sleet, snow and fog, etc.
While computer models provide a foundation for weather forecasting, human forecasters still play a crucial role in interpreting the data. Experienced forecasters use their knowledge and expertise to adjust the model outputs, making educated guesses about future weather patterns.
This means that different forecasters might interpret the same data differently, leading to variations in weather forecasts.
Keep in mind the forecaster has their own personal perspective on weather forecast reports. Some have personal or political agendas behind them.
The butterfly effect suggests that even tiny changes in atmospheric conditions can significantly impact weather patterns. This means that seemingly insignificant events, like a butterfly flapping its wings, can influence the weather.
While the media often presents the weather as a predictable, linear system, the reality is that small changes can have significant effects.
Weather forecasting involves understanding complex interactions between atmospheric conditions, ocean currents, and land surfaces. It’s a multidisciplinary field that draws on physics, mathematics, geography, and more. The real final decision on the outcome, comes from God.
The media often simplifies weather forecasting, making it seem like a straightforward process. However, the reality is that weather forecasting is a rich and complex science.
Nowcasting refers to the practice of predicting weather patterns over short periods, usually up to a few hours. This approach uses current weather conditions, radar data, and other sources to make highly localized forecasts.
The media is starting to recognize the importance of nowcasting, particularly for severe weather events. However, there’s still more work to be done in this area.
Ensemble forecasting involves running multiple computer models simultaneously to generate a range of possible forecasts. This approach helps to quantify uncertainty and provides a more comprehensive understanding of potential weather scenarios.
The media is slowly adopting ensemble forecasting methods, but there’s still a long way to go in terms of communicating the complexities of ensemble forecasting to the public.
Citizen scientists, armed with smartphones and weather apps, are contributing valuable data to weather forecasting efforts. This crowdsourced data helps to improve the accuracy of weather forecasts, particularly in areas with limited weather stations.
The media is starting to recognize the importance of citizen scientists in weather forecasting, but more work needs to be done to integrate this data into mainstream forecasting efforts.
Weather forecasting is a complex and multifaceted field that’s often oversimplified by the media. By understanding the secrets behind weather forecasting, we can gain a deeper appreciation for the challenges and uncertainties involved.
As we move forward, it’s essential to recognize the importance of ensemble forecasting, nowcasting, and citizen science in improving the accuracy and reliability of weather forecasts. By working together, we can create a more comprehensive and nuanced understanding of the weather.
Good morning. I was contacted by a member of the community that they have not been getting my weather updates and wanted to get emails. I told them I would do my best to submit a blog post. So here we go.
Here is the 6am COOP Weather Observer Report for station 2SSE.
High: 20°F
Low: 9° F
Observed: 9° F
Liquid Precipitation Equivalent: 0.73”
New Snow Measurements: 7.4” averaged due to drifting.
Total New and old Snow: 8”
Today’s high will be 19° F give or take by 3pm. Looks like we should see a little bit of sunshine today, baring that fog doesn’t move into the area. Models don’t show fog at this time. The rest of the time we will be under an overcast. Dew points will be in the negative, meaning that the atmosphere will be very dry.
Someone asked about humidity yesterday during this snow event Dew Point. The higher the dew point the higher the moisture content in the air. So in the summer time I refer to the dew point a lot anything with a dew point of 55° F or higher will be humid and sticky. Wintertime normally has a low dew point, so the air is very dry.
That is about it for today. Take care. MP
Notifications