More accurate than the media.
Here is the latest Tuesday Weather Forecast. Looking at the long-range GFS models, our next event is Thursday. The start time is about noon and ends at 6 pm on Thursday. Precipitation amounts are minimal, according to the GFS. It shows 0.39 inches of rain when all is said and done.
Today, we will hit a high of about 42° F by 3 pm. Skies will be mostly clear to clear and there may be a point in the day we encounter an overcast.
That is about it for today. MP
Here is the 2023 Missouri Tornado Highlights based on an 11-year cycle between 2013 to 2023. I took these from official NOAA storm reports.
2023 confirmed tornadoes based on NOAA have increased 60% from 10 reports in 2022 to 25.
2023 tornado reports are down 124% from 56 to 25.
Out of 11 years, 2017 was the high for Missouri Tornadoes at 56. The low was 10 for 2022.
For Jackson County Missouri, the highest number of recorded tornadoes was 2 for 2019.
These two confirmed tornadoes were in Cockrell and Vale with no injuries or deaths.
in 2017, NOAA recorded 12 injuries when an EF3 tornado started in Tarsney Lakes, Missouri, and ended in Oak Grove, Missouri.
2024 prediction for Jackson County based on trends and patterns looks to be possible 2 tornadic events. I believe that these events may lead to an EF1 and an EF2 event. I cannot determine a location and it would be too difficult.
2023 prediction for the state of Missouri based on trends and patterns looks to be possible 9-12 events. These events may lead to an EF3 event. The location of these events are undetermined because that would be too difficult to determine.
Good morning. Here is the Sunday Forecast, but first, the measurements and current weather. I am ready for the summer now—enough of this white stuff. I walked out to get the Stratus and get measurements. We ended with 2.4 inches of snow with a liquid equivalent of .27 inches. That makes the ratio 8.9 inches of snow to 1 inch of liquid. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) was off by about an inch. God said, “Here is a little more to grow on.” He is in control. The WPC is still a more accurate source than the snow amounts for others.
The current temperature is 25° F. Skies are mostly cloudy, and winds are three miles per hour out of the northwest. The relative humidity is at 92%. The barometric pressure is at 29.83 inches of mercury. The radar is pretty clear, and the atmosphere is pretty dry now.
Here is the Sunday Forecast for today. We will hit a high of 36° F, give or take, by 3 pm. It will be a bit breezy today, with wind gusts peaking at about 27-28 miles per hour by noon today. Winds should begin to calm down at about 6 pm tonight.
Lots of activity on the sun’s surface. There are still lots of sunspots. The sun is trying to hold on to that solar maximum before it goes back to sleep and becomes dormant again.
That is all I have to talk about today. Take care. MP
Good morning. Here is the latest winter weather update. I was looking at the latest models. The start time is about 2 pm for rain, and shifts to snow by 5 pm. The Weather Prediction Center still shows a mix as this system moves through the area. The snow probability of one inch or greater has shifted to about 40-50% for the Blue Springs Area, and 60-70% of snow amounts to 1 inch and greater for Independence and Kansas City. With snow amounts of 2 inches and greater, the percentage drops substantially for all areas, so I would not count on more than an inch of accumulation, if any.
Precipitation amounts for the HRRR show too much snow. It sits at 1.8 inches of snow by 10 pm, and the NAM shows snow amounts that are way too much at 4 inches plus. The reason why I don’t subscribe to those is because of the Weather Prediction Center. Don’t hold your breath for an accumulation of 4 inches, or even one inch for that matter, for Blue Springs.
The current temperature is about 26° F. The HRRR models show a high of almost 39° F, give or take, by 1 pm. After that, the temperature will begin to fall, and it looks to hover around 33° F by evening.
That is about it for today. If anything else changes, I will likely post it on Facebook directly. Take care. MP
Good morning. There seems to be a lot of talk about a winter weather forecast this weekend. Most media are dramatizing it and saying we will get a significant measurable amount. If you are new here, you will soon discover that my weather forecasts, especially the winter ones, will be significantly different and sometimes the opposite of what the media says. I have had people who do this sort of thing for a living turn around and tell me that my forecasts are wrong because of whatever atmospheric 10k dollar words they use. I always say we will have to wait and see. Once the event ended, my prediction was correct.
I will be the first to tell you that I am not always accurate, and I always tell folks to grab other sources and compare and go based on what you see. Every once in a while, I get some hecklers that try and put a bad name on my site and they share my page in other groups saying this guy is terrible don’t use him he does this, that, and the other. I smile because people begin to gravitate to my site and I end up increasing in followers and traffic and the people realize that, hey this guy is pretty accurate. Free advertising. Anyway, enough of the rambling from me. How about this Winter Weather Forecast?
Looking at the medium- and long-range models and the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) at this point, it is looking like a do n’t-hold-your-breath sort of forecast. It is still really early in the game, even though we are three days out from the event. Don’t bank on any sort of significant amounts of snowfall. In fact, I will go as far as it being a wintery mix and we would be lucky to have any accumulation.
I base my winter weather forecast on these observations and sources. There are some inconsistencies with these models. One inconsistency is comparing GFS 10-1 totals, NAM totals, and the probabilities from Winter WX model totals on the WPC. Here are the differences and below that I will put the images.
I always steer towards the WPC model because that model is spot on practically every single time with winter forecasts.
One of the things that is similar is the timing. Every model shows a start time of 6 pm on Saturday evening. It also shows leaving the area by 3 am on Sunday. As we progress, I will post a short statement on social media or another blog post if it is extensive. That is about it for today.
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That is about it for today. Take care. MP
Good morning. Here is the Wednesday weather forecast for Wednesday, November 22, 2023. Models were about 3 degrees off this morning. We hit a low of 28 degrees. That said, my forecast for today will be 3 degrees lower from the reporting HRRR models on the College of Dupage site. My Atlas is about two degrees lower than the official COOP National Weather Service provided Nimbus, sitting at 26° F. Skies are clear this morning. Winds are calm.
There is not a whole lot going on for today’s forecast. It’s pretty quiet, and even the WPC shows nothing but a warm front to our west. Clear skies will dominate the day. We may shift to an overcast to mostly cloudy by about 11 am today, but it will only last about an hour.
As for today’s Wednesday weather forecast, we will be struggling with temperature for a possible high of 41° F (Based on the adjusted temperature).
Winds may become breezy around 11 am with a peak gust of 17 mph, give or take.
That is about it for today. Take care and I hope you have your Thanksgiving prepped and ready! Please consider visiting the rest of my posts here. MP
Good morning. Here is the Tuesday weather forecast. The temperature is going to struggle to get above 40° F today. Highs will be about 43° F if it makes it. Clouds should begin to move out of the area by 1 pm today. We may see a short bout of rain by 11 am, but after that we should be done for the day.
Current temperature is sitting at 39° F. Skies are cloudy. Wind speeds at 4 mph out of the northwest. We received 0.25 inches of precipitation over the past 24 hours making the total over the past 48 hours at 1.07 inches of precipitation. No lightning strikes recorded.
That is about it for today. Take care. MP
Good morning, here is the latest Monday weather forecast – November 20, 2023, hope your weekend was good and you got everything ready to go for Thanksgiving!
Rain will continue off and on throughout the day today and well into the evening. This system is just sitting over us and spinning. We will only reach to about 44° F by noon.
Currently we sit at 39°, with pressure at 29.91 inches of mercury. The AcuRite shows 0.48 inches of rain fall so far since midnight. We have a total of 0.76 inches of rain measured on AcuRite and 0.82 official inches of rain on the Status. Relative Humidity is at 95%. Winds at 9 mph from the NNE.
That is pretty much it for today. Take care and drive safely to work this morning. MP
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If you want to learn more about this fantastic phenomenon, here are some excellent resources. Keep in mind when searching for resources there is a lot of rhetoric on the web that references the phrase Cl##### Ch#### that you want to steer away from. There is a lot of fraudulent data that NOAA has contaminated to drive an agenda. They are doing a pretty good job at trying to cover this sort of thing up. You have to dig around to find these articles.
Storm Prediction Center Storm Reports
Blue Springs Weather Site
Tornado Safety
Junk Science
Good morning everyone. We will get to the Sunday weather forecast shortly. I woke up this morning to view the security cameras, and we had a nice-sized buck pass through the neighborhood. I am pretty sure it was lost. It likely showed up due to it being hunting season. It was right about 4 am when it showed up.
I spent Saturday cleaning out the leaf-infested gutters and unclogging the downspouts. Did not take long at all. I’m almost done with the leaves on my property. I spent several hours cleaning up the pine needles from the large tree next door. I’m not too fond of pine trees. Their needles destroy ground nutrients if you don’t clean them up. They kill any vegetation around the area and destroy the soil’s PH. It hinders grass growth, too. To get back that grass, you have to either cut down the tree and/or replace the soil with good soil and plant sod or grass seed. The best solution is to get rid of the tree. They get pine cones and needles everywhere. I had one and got rid of it. The grass still does not grow right from it. Anyway, I digress. Let’s get on with the weather.
Tonday’s weather will be wet over the next 24 hours. Models are showing we could get a decent soaking, so if you were planning on doing any yard work, you have till about 2 pm to do that. It does show rain upon us by 3 pm today. You may hear a rumble or two of thunder while this system moves through the area. The Storm Prediction Center still shows just a chance of non-severe thunderstorms, which is to be expected since we are out of our peak season. Rain amounts are looking to be somewhere around half an inch to an inch for the Jackson County area. Rain amounts are much harder to get than snow amounts. We will reach to about 63° by 1 pm.
Our current temperature sits at 41° F. The barometric pressure is at 29.82 inches of mercury, humidity is at 73% Relative and skies are mostly clear since I see a few light clouds in the sky.
Sun activity is pretty minimal and quiet. We thought it was goung to go spotless for the first time in Solar Cycle 25, but that proved to be wrong and 3489 showed up. Looking at today’s image from Space Weather Live, we have two more sun spots that popped up ont he weatern hemisphere 2490 and 2491. That small coronal hole is slowly making its way acrossed the equator and is now passing through the eastern hemisphere. We do have an earth directed solar storm from a filliment on the 15th and should be here by Monday. We may have an increase of sunspot and solar activity.
That is pretty much it for today. Enjoy your day today.