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Weather Forecast January 21, 2025

Brrr it is -5.2° F out. It feels like -5.2° F and the wind chill is -5.2° F. For those of you that are wondering about this statement. Wind chill and feels like is calculated and unreliable. The media uses it to dramatize and play on your mind. Is it cold? Yes. Can you get frost bite? Yes. We need to respect the weather and be smart about it. It is winter an we should dress for the environment. On another note. Media uses “Polar Vortex” to make things scary. Just a 10k word for a high pressure system coming in from Canada with wind. Just change the channel if they scream dramatic words.

On another note blizzard warning along the gulf of America. A combination of Tonga eruption in 2022 a pull on our planet from the large planets and the weak sun from Grand Solar Minimum. This is just a taste as we progress through the next 10+ years or so.

High of 15° F by 4pm. No precipitation expected. Windy. Dress accordingly. Take care. MP.

How Your Own Weather Forecasts Can Help You Live A Better Life

Staying ahead of the weather game can make all the difference in our daily lives. From planning outdoor activities to preparing for severe weather conditions, having access to accurate and reliable weather forecasts is crucial. But did you know that creating your own weather forecasts can take your preparedness to the next level?

Understanding the Basics of Weather Forecasting

Weather forecasting is the application of science and technology to predict atmospheric conditions for a given location and time. By collecting quantitative data about current weather conditions, land, and ocean, meteorologists use computer-based models to project how the atmosphere will change. However, human input is still required to pick the best possible model and interpret the results.

Benefits of Creating Your Own Weather Forecasts

  1. Improved Accuracy: By understanding the local weather patterns and using data from personal weather stations, you can create forecasts that are tailored to your specific location.
  2. Enhanced Preparedness: With your own weather forecasts, you can plan ahead for severe weather conditions, such as hurricanes, floods, or heatwaves.
  3. Increased Safety: By having access to accurate and reliable weather forecasts, you can make informed decisions about outdoor activities, travel, and other plans.
  4. Better Decision-Making: Your own weather forecasts can help you make informed decisions about agriculture, construction, or other weather-dependent activities.

Tools and Resources for Creating Your Own Weather Forecasts

  1. Personal Weather Stations: Invest in a personal weather station that can provide you with real-time data on temperature, humidity, wind speed, and other weather conditions.
  2. Weather Modeling Software: Utilize weather modeling software, such as the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, to create forecasts based on your local weather data.
  3. Online Resources: Take advantage of online resources, such as weather forums and blogs, to stay up-to-date with the latest weather trends and forecasting techniques.

Conclusion

Creating your own weather forecasts can be a game-changer for individuals who want to stay ahead of the weather game. By understanding the basics of weather forecasting, utilizing the right tools and resources, and benefiting from improved accuracy and preparedness, you can take control of your weather forecasting needs. So why not give it a try? Start creating your own weather forecasts today and see the difference it can make in your life and you won’t be tied to dramatic media that elevates a minor event.

Saturday January 11, 2025 Forecast

Good morning. High temperature for today is 35° F give or take. We ended up with a trace more of snow after 6am yesterday. We ended with an official 1.5” of additional snow accumulation for South Blue Springs over the past 48 hours. My measurements are based on 6am measurements every morning.

COOP REPORT 1/11/2025 6AM.

High: 34.0° F
Low: 14.5° F
Observed: 15.4° F
Precipitation: Trace
New Snow: Trace
Total Snow: 6.4”

Skies will be dominated by clouds and you may catch the sunshine periodically. Windy today. Peaking to 31 mph by 1pm.

Precipitation is expected this evening with the possibility of a short bout of freezing rain to a mix of rain start time will be around 10 pm this evening. The good news is it looks to be short lived. It looks to end by midnight. Temperatures will be sitting at 32° F during this time. So if you are out and about, please drive carefully. Models sho none to a trace in ice accumulations.

That is about it for today. MP

WINTER WEATHER UPDATE as of 1/9/2024 at 5:20am

WINTER WEATHER UPDATE as of 1/9/2024 at 5:20am. Models moved back an hour for start time. We are now at 8pm this evening. The NWS says mixed precipitation. HRRR shows straight snow. The WPC has shown a shift for chances of snow accumulations to 60% from 50% last night. Jumping down in the weeds for snow amounts. It looks like we could get up to 1.6-1.7 inches of snow over the evening hours. I do not know a stop time as of yet. That will have to wait till the evening.

For today’s temperature. Looks like we will hit a high of 33° F give or take by 2pm today. Winds will pick up a little today and peak to about 26 mph by 2pm. When the snow moves into the area, visibility will reduce significantly, not with blizzard winds like the other day. Skies will be mostly clear today until about 1pm. That is about it. Take care. MP

8pm CST start time

Monday Evening Forecast For January 6,2024 to January 7,2024

BRRRR. Drip them faucets tonight. We will hit a low at 7am with a low of -2° F.

Clouds will dominate the evening hours with some periods of mostly clear skies. No precipitation is expected.

Meanwhile over the past two days the sun has caused a lot of activity on our planet. We have FOUR coronal holes on the sun that have cause TWO earthquakes on TWO days. One in Nepal at a 7.1, and one in El Salvador at 6.2.

That is about it for tonight. Have a good evening. MP

The 7 Secrets About Weather Forecast the Media Is Hiding

As we continue to rely on the media for our daily weather forecasts, have you ever stopped to think about the intricacies of weather forecasting? While the media presents the weather in a straightforward and easy-to-understand manner, there’s more to it than meets the eye.

In this article, we’ll delve into seven secrets about weather forecasting that the media might not be telling you.

1. Computer Models Are Prone to Errors

Weather forecasting relies heavily on computer models that use complex algorithms to predict future weather patterns. However, these models are only as good as the data they’re fed, and small errors can quickly multiply into significant discrepancies. This happed with yesterday’s event.

The media often presents weather forecasts as fact, but the reality is that these forecasts are based on probabilities and are subject to change. Sometimes they acquire a “God Complex” with pride, thinking the common man cannot make their one forecasts and have to be “educated” in the area of meteorology and knowing all the ten thousand dollar words that can be reduced to simple trims such as rain, sleet, snow and fog, etc.

2. Forecasters Use Their Own Judgment

While computer models provide a foundation for weather forecasting, human forecasters still play a crucial role in interpreting the data. Experienced forecasters use their knowledge and expertise to adjust the model outputs, making educated guesses about future weather patterns.

This means that different forecasters might interpret the same data differently, leading to variations in weather forecasts.

Keep in mind the forecaster has their own personal perspective on weather forecast reports. Some have personal or political agendas behind them.

3. The Butterfly Effect Is Real

The butterfly effect suggests that even tiny changes in atmospheric conditions can significantly impact weather patterns. This means that seemingly insignificant events, like a butterfly flapping its wings, can influence the weather.

While the media often presents the weather as a predictable, linear system, the reality is that small changes can have significant effects.

4. Weather Forecasting Is a Complex Science

Weather forecasting involves understanding complex interactions between atmospheric conditions, ocean currents, and land surfaces. It’s a multidisciplinary field that draws on physics, mathematics, geography, and more. The real final decision on the outcome, comes from God.

The media often simplifies weather forecasting, making it seem like a straightforward process. However, the reality is that weather forecasting is a rich and complex science.

5. Nowcasting Is Becoming Increasingly Important

Nowcasting refers to the practice of predicting weather patterns over short periods, usually up to a few hours. This approach uses current weather conditions, radar data, and other sources to make highly localized forecasts.

The media is starting to recognize the importance of nowcasting, particularly for severe weather events. However, there’s still more work to be done in this area.

6. Ensemble Forecasting Is the Future

Ensemble forecasting involves running multiple computer models simultaneously to generate a range of possible forecasts. This approach helps to quantify uncertainty and provides a more comprehensive understanding of potential weather scenarios.

The media is slowly adopting ensemble forecasting methods, but there’s still a long way to go in terms of communicating the complexities of ensemble forecasting to the public.

7. Citizen Scientists Are Contributing to Weather Forecasting

Citizen scientists, armed with smartphones and weather apps, are contributing valuable data to weather forecasting efforts. This crowdsourced data helps to improve the accuracy of weather forecasts, particularly in areas with limited weather stations.

The media is starting to recognize the importance of citizen scientists in weather forecasting, but more work needs to be done to integrate this data into mainstream forecasting efforts.

Conclusion

Weather forecasting is a complex and multifaceted field that’s often oversimplified by the media. By understanding the secrets behind weather forecasting, we can gain a deeper appreciation for the challenges and uncertainties involved.

As we move forward, it’s essential to recognize the importance of ensemble forecasting, nowcasting, and citizen science in improving the accuracy and reliability of weather forecasts. By working together, we can create a more comprehensive and nuanced understanding of the weather.

Monday January 6, 2025 Daily Forecast

Good morning. I was contacted by a member of the community that they have not been getting my weather updates and wanted to get emails. I told them I would do my best to submit a blog post. So here we go.

Here is the 6am COOP Weather Observer Report for station 2SSE.

High: 20°F
Low: 9° F
Observed: 9° F

Liquid Precipitation Equivalent: 0.73”
New Snow Measurements: 7.4” averaged due to drifting.
Total New and old Snow: 8”

Today’s high will be 19° F give or take by 3pm. Looks like we should see a little bit of sunshine today, baring that fog doesn’t move into the area. Models don’t show fog at this time. The rest of the time we will be under an overcast. Dew points will be in the negative, meaning that the atmosphere will be very dry.

Someone asked about humidity yesterday during this snow event Dew Point. The higher the dew point the higher the moisture content in the air. So in the summer time I refer to the dew point a lot anything with a dew point of 55° F or higher will be humid and sticky. Wintertime normally has a low dew point, so the air is very dry.

That is about it for today. Take care. MP