Author: Michael

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Thursday October 3rd 2019 Forecast

Good morning Blue Springs! Nice crisp morning this morning. Current temperature is 53.6°. Our Max temperature was 86.2° and min temperature was 53.6°. Relative humidity 95%. Barometric pressure 1018(30.06 inches) and rising. Winds at 0 gusting to 6 out of the South Southeast. Dew point temperature 52°. Lightning strikes detected since midnight 1. Lightning detected over the past Forty-Eight hours 23. Skies are cloudy. Between the .04 inches of rain we had yesterday morning and .76 inches of rain we had over night it was a total of .80 inches since 6am yesterday. Feels like 52.

Today, temperature will be in the low 60s. Chance of rain 11%. Dew point temperature will be in the upper 40s. Skies will be partly cloudy shifting to mostly clear by 4 p.m. this afternoon.

Tonight, temperatures will be in the low 50s possibly in the upper 40s. Chance of rain 1%. Dew point temperature upper 40s. Skies will be mostly clear.

Friday, temperature will be in the low 60s. Chance of rain 2%. Dew point temperature in the upper 40s. Sky is mostly clear.

Friday night, temperature in the upper 50s. Chance of rain 12%. Dew point temperature in the low 50s. Skies will be mostly cloudy.

Saturday, temperatures in the upper 70s. Chance of rain 66%. Dew point temperature in the upper 50s. Skies will be mostly cloudy to cloudy. Rain likely ending after 1 pm.

Saturday night, temperature will be in upper 40s to low 50s. Chance of rain 9%. Dew point temperature in the low 50s. Sky’s mostly clear.

Convective Outlook for today there is no chance of severe weather or non severe thunderstorms. Friday we have chance of non severe thunderstorms. Saturday we have a marginal chance of severe thunderstorms.

Models show today between 8am and 1pm another round of rain, but models are inconsistant with each other. I would just have an umbrella handy in case. The NAM model shows Saturday rain and thunderstorms possble between 7am and 1pm. Rain amounts do not look like much. .10 inches to as high as .30 inches or so between the NAM model and what the National Weather Service says.

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Wednesday October 3rd 2019 Forecast

Current conditions. Temperature is 73.2°. We had a high of 87.6° and a low of 69.9°. Relative humidity 86%. Barometric pressure 1011(29.85 inches) and steady. Winds at 0 gusting to 2 out of the South Southeast. Dew point temperature 68°. Humid. Skies are cloudy. Feels like 80°.

Temperature today will be in the low 80s. Chance of rain 77%. Dew point temperature will be in the low 70s. Humid. Skies will be cloudy.

Tonight temperature will be in the low to mid 50s. Chance of rain 86%. Dew point temperature will drop from 70s to the low 50s by 4 AM. Skies will be cloudy to mostly cloudy. National Weather Service says rain amounts after 1 a.m. will be about a half an inch or a little more.

Thursday temperature will be in the upper 60s. Chance of rain 3%. Dew point temperature in the low 50s. Skies will be mostly cloudy to partly cloudy.

Thursday night temperatures will be in the low 50s. Chance of rain 3%. Dew point temperature will be in the upper 40s. Skies will be partly cloudy.

Friday temperatures will be in the upper 60s. Chance of rain 11%. Dew point temperature will be in the upper 40s. Skies will be mostly cloudy.

Friday night temperatures will be in the upper 50s to low 60s. Chance of rain 23%. Dew point temperature will be in the low 50s. Skies will be mostly cloudy.

Models currently show scattered showers starting about 9 or 10 a.m. roughly. The main system will begin between 4 p.m. and 7 p.m. or so. Models are fairly consistent with each other.

Today convective Outlook gives us a marginal chance of severe weather. With a 5% chance of high winds and large hail. Less than 2% of tornadoes. Tomorrow convective Outlook shows very Southern edge of our County with a Chance of non severe thunderstorms. Friday shows no chance of severe or non severe thunderstorms.

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Tuesday October 1 2019 Forecast

Good morning Blue Springs! Happy Tuesday. Goodbye September hello October.

Current conditions. Temperature 72.3°. We had a high of 86.7° and a low of 67.8°. Relative humidity 88%. Barometric pressure 1011(29.85 inches) and steady. Winds are at 3 winds are three gusting to 6 out of the south southwest. Dew point temperature 67°. Feels like 76°. Skies are mostly clear. No precipitation to report.

Today temperature will be in the upper 80s. Chance of rain 7%. Dew point temperature in the low 70s. Humid. Skies will be partly cloudy to mostly clear.

Tonight temperatures will be in the upper 60s. Chance of rain 51%. Dew point temperature in the upper 60s. Humid. Skies will shift to mostly cloudy.

Wednesday temperatures will be in the low 70s. Chance of rain 71%. Dew point temperature shifting from the upper 60s to low 60s by 4pm. Skies will Skies will be mostly cloudy to cloudy.

Wednesday night temperature in the mid to upper 50s. Chance off rain 72%. Dew point temperature shifting from upper 60s to upper 50s by 4am Thursday.

Thursday temperature in the upper 60s. Chance of rain 6%. Dew point temperature continues to fall from low 50s to upper 40s. Skies partly cloudy to mostly clear.

Thursday night temperature in the low 50s possibly upper 40s. Chance of rain 2%. Dew point temperature upper 40s. Skies partly cloudy.

Convective outlook. Today no chance of severe or non severe thunderstorms. Wednesday we have a mrginal chance of severe thunderstorms. Thursday no thunderstorms, severe or otherwise.

Have a beautiful Tuesday! Be blessed!

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Blue Springs Weather Fall Photo Contest

This contest is strictly for fun and no cash or prizes will be given out. This contest is set up to test your talent and creativity through weather and seasonal photography for this page. This will be challenging and possibly difficult for some. I made it that way because I want to show off the beauty of our city’s natural environment and hopefully spark some creativity. One winner will be selected to have their image displayed on the banner of this Facebook page and website at https://bluespringsweather.michaeltpratt.com. Winner will receive bragging rights by being announced on my Facebook page and a blog banner for the rest of the fall season.

Rules:

Please note that ALL submissions become the property of this page and will be used in future posts. Please make sure you read through all the rules and understand them before you submit your photo so you don’t get disqualified.

  1. The photographer must be a Blue Springs resident, all others will not be accepted. One photo submission per person. Photos MUST be within the city limits of our city.
  2. Photo must not have any water marks from photography businesses or any other businesses or it will not be accepted.
  3. Must be weather related to the season, such as fall colors, leaves, rain, thunderstorms etc. No holiday themed photos they must be fall seasoned.
  4. No humans in photos, vehicles, buildings, homes or man made objects in the photographs, must be all natural. (example: Rotary park pond is man made and therefore cannot be used in a photo but the stream that runs to the pond can be used as long as the bridge is not in it.)
  5. Must be high resolution digital images unfiltered with no enhancements, cell phones photos are fine as long as they are high definition type images. Use of flash lighting is fine as well.
  6. Color or black and white photographs are fine.
  7. image format must be in JPG and less than 5 megabytes in size.
  8. Age limit is from freshman to adult.

DEADLINE will be Friday November 1st 2019 at 6pm. Winner will be announced the following week and no later than November 8th 2019.

Questions and entries may be emailed to mpratt@michaeltpratt.com.

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Evening Weather September 30th 2019

Last day of September and I am loving the nice hot weather. I am a Spring/Summer type of person. I dont care for Fall or Winter. I don’t like to put on jackets and coats.

Current conditions. Temperature is 86. We had a high of 86.7° and a low of 67.8° Relative humidity 66%. Winds at 3 gusting to 14 out of the southwest. Barometric pressure is 1011(29.85) and falling. Dew point temperature 73°. Humid.

Current NAM model shows a start time of 1am Wednesday morning. Passing passing through by 7am.

The second system on Wednesday will be on top of us by 7pm. The second system will last until about 10pm.

Temperature will plummet to about 45° give or take at 10am October 3rd Thursday morning barely reaching the low 50s by 7pm. Temperature will dip even further by 1am early Friday October 4th morning, to the low 40s (43 is what the model says).

Time to break out the windbreakers, prepare the humidifiers, and break out and break out the hand lotion. Fall is on its way.

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Monday September 30th Weather Forecast

Good morning Blue Springs and all who follow. Happy Monday! We should be able to dry out before our next system.

Current conditions. Temperature 72.7°. Max temp was 85.1 and min temp was 67.8. Relative humidity 89%. Barometric pressure 1012 and steady. Winds at 2 gusting to 10 out of the east southeast. Dew point 68°. Skies are clear. No precipitation to report. Feels like 75°.

Today temperatures will be in the upper 80s. Chance of rain 0%. Dew point temperatures in the low 70s. Humid. Skies will be mostly clear.

Tonight temperature will be in the upper 70s. Chance of rain 3%. Dew point temperature in the upper 60s. Humid. Skies will be mostly clear.

Tuesday temperatures will be in the upper 80s. Chance of rain 30%. Dew point temperature in the low 70s. Humid. Skies will be partly cloudy.

Tuesday night temperatures in the low 70s. Chance of rain 43%. Dew point temperatures in the upper 60s. Humid. Skies will shift from partly cloudy to mostly cloudy by 4 a.m. in the morning on Wednesday.

Wednesday temperatures in the low 80s. Chance of rain 69%. Skies will be mostly cloudy to cloudy. Dew point temperature will be in the upper 60s. Humid.

Then comes Wednesday night. Temperatures in the low 50s. National Weather Service shows a temperature of 54 degrees. Chance of rain 59%. Dew point temperature will drop to the upper 50s by 1 a.m. Thursday morning. Skies will be mostly cloudy to cloudy.

Convective Outlook shows a chance of non severe thunderstorms over the next 2 days. On Wednesday Jackson County has a marginal chance of severe weather.

Models show current start time for Tuesday night into Wednesday morning how about 10 p.m. and continuing into the morning hours with an in time of about 5 or 6 a.m. in the morning Wednesday. Wednesday evening show scattered storms rolling into our area around 7 p.m. Wednesday night. We’ll know more as we progress through the week.

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Project Stormfront – The Movement

So far, what I have discovered is there seems to be an association between temperature and barometric pressure (specifically the 1016 and 1018 mb) that has a huge effect on the production of storms and the direction it gets it’s energy from. I know that storms feed from low temperatures to high temperatures. I know that there is some sort of tie with the 1016 and 1018 mb isobars when it comes to severe weather. I know also that the slower the temperature change the farther the temperatures are and the less energy these storms have. This was found just by observing simple satellite loops at the College of DuPage weather site.

Next is the movement. The movement of the storms and where they go is based on the winds in the 500mb (18289 feet) level of the atmosphere. If one wants to know which way a storm is going to go, just jump up to 18,289 feet and check it out. This was already known and discovered, but it can help tremendously in tracking a storm’s path.

500mb or 18,289 feet overlay. Click on image for a larger view.

If one was storm spotting or chasing this would prove to be vital in order to position themselves in a safe area for observation. One would have to have internet access to get to the loops and overlays for retrieving this sort of information. You could also use your radar application as well. This would be helpful when forecasting and determining the location you should be at. This an the 1016 and 1018mb and temperatures and other resources that will be discussed later, could get you in a good location.

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Pressure And Temperature Relationship

I spent a good amount of time tonight looking at the College of DuPage’s live satellite data and I noticed that the 1016 and 1018 millibar isobars seem to enclose the storms occurring in central Missouri. I was sure that something would have occurred in our area since my weather station was reading 1018mb and the skies were filled with cotton balls. It obviously did not occur. the pressure dropped out past 1016 and as it did the line moved more to the west and produced storms there. What I noticed was the fact that the severe part of the storm would be right on top of and follow the 1018 line. I also noticed that storms would appear along that 1018 millibar isobar line. I would not be surprised if those storms that were not around the indicated 1018 millibar line also had a pressure of 1018 millibars as well, at least where the most activity was.

In addition to the pressure, when the storms died out the temperature divisions were spread out and the storms could not sustain themselves and in turn died out quickly. It is also noticed that as the sun goes down the temperature drops and the temperature divisions spread out causing the storms to dissipate and die out.

Frame of a GOES Satellite taken from College of DuPage. Notice the storms along the 1018 line that was circled.. I also circled the 1016 line as well.

I am pretty stoked at this discovery and I am anxious to get the Arduino sensor put together and start taking some measurements myself of the temperature, dew point and barometric pressure once every 30 – 60 seconds over a 24 hour period during a day of sever weather. I still have to purchase the equipment and the sensors and engineer and fabricate the device and make sure it is weather proof, yet still have the ability to take accurate readings.

In summery I truly believe that both the temperature and the barometric pressure have a huge effect on the production, sustainment and even direction of the severe thunderstorm, or any thunderstorm for that matter. Having this understanding when out storm spotting or chasing can allow a track and/or path of the severe thunderstorm and where one needs to go to stay a safe distance. I don’t have any doubt that this may have already been discovered, but as a layman and weather enthusiast with no college background on the topic. I can put this in terms that the common person can understand.

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Possible 1016 Millibar Pressure Associated With Severe Weather

Not sure if there is any sort of pattern to this or not, but while looking at College of DuPage again I noticed a pattern here. The storms seem to be aligned with the 1016 millibar barometric pressure line. I have circled the areas in the below image that line up with 1016 millibars. It may not be anything, but it is in fact an interesting discovery to watch over a period of time. Will have to keep an eye on this to see if it continues over a period of time. Since storms are related to low pressure this would make sense.

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Operation Storm-Front Radar Finding

This may be already known, but I want to assume that nothing is known and I am going to start as if this was brand new research because you never know. Some may consider this as “reinventing the wheel”, but something may have been missed in previous research documents and data.

Examination of various radar loops using the College of DuPage weather site, I started with the basic radar loop and then enabled the surface temperature layer. After examination of various storms throughout the United States, it was discovered that storms move in the direction of higher surface temperatures. I have added the radar loop below of June 27, 2019 to June 28, 2019.

Examination of most of the Nation it was found that some of the smaller storms were following the contour line of temperatures along the state of Kansas. It was also noted that the contour lines for those areas were much farther apart than the areas where the storms were tracking from cold to hot temperatures. Those storms or clouds that were following the contour lines of the temperatures had less potential energy than those storms that were crossing temperature contour lines that were much closer together. See radar loop below also taken from June 27-28, 2019.

It is safe to say from this discovery four things:
1. Storms track from cold to hot temperatures.
2. Storms tracking across close surface temperature contour lines are stronger.
3. Storms will also follow with surface temperature contour lines when the lines are much more spread out.
4. Those storms that travel with temperature contour lines lack storm potential energy.

It is also interesting to note that strong storms that bump up against a more spread out temperature contour line it loses strength and stalls out in that area and feeds back into itself creating a clockwise rotation which represents a weather high for that area.

I will have to continue to observe these phenomena to see if it stays consistent to my discovery. I will also need to take a look at fall, winter and spring to see if there are any changes to the paths that these storms take and if there is any difference between cold weather storms and warm weather storms and also compare our storm intensities with the surface temperatures. Data gathering with a proprietary sensor device would probe valuable to this discovery .