Author: Michael

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Morning Observations / Forecast December 16 2022

Good morning. Today’s observation as of 6:21 am shows the current temperature of 22 degrees with a pressure of 29.87 inches. Winds are out of the NW at 10 mph. Relative humidity at 67% with a dew point of 16 degrees. Skies are clear.

For today’s forcast the wind gusts will peak to about 26 knots or about 30 mph give or take by noon today.

HRRR Windgust at noon on December 16, 2022

Dress accordingly and no I am not going to post anything about wind chill or feels like temperature. It is way over rated and it is a relative “calculation”. One of these days I am going to write a post on why you should not rely on Wind Chill and Feels Like Temperatures. Believe it or knot the National Weather Service had to “modify” the formula for wind chill because it was too high. Well how does one know that a feels like temperature or a wind chill calculation is too high? I have read that there were several research articles on this particular topic that forced this to be changed. I have not been able to find those articles just yet. I have not thoroughly searched the web either. I just need to set aside some time one morning to do some searching. I know these were done before 2001 according to what I have found.

The temperature will be around 31 degrees give or take for a high today by 11am this morning so again, dress accordingly.

HRRR Temperature at 11am CST

As for cloud cover, we will begin to shift to overcast by 11am today give or take. Temperatures will begin to drop about that time and by 10 pm, temperatures will be around 26 degrees or so and falling.

HRRR Temperature 10pm CST
HRRR Average Cloud Cover 11am CST

That is pretty much it for today. Not a whole lot going on. Happy Friday everyone. MP

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SOLAR STORM WARNING December 8-9

SOLAR STORM WARNING December 8 and 9th. What does this mean? It means earthquakes and volcanic eruptions somewhere across the world. This is because of the massive sunspots that are currently moving across the sun. Minor G1 class geomagnetic storms are possible with this event. This can still cause radio blackouts and GPS interruptions resulting in flight and ship delays in the affected areas (affected areas can be found on NOAA site by the weekend) those with pacemakers should avoid flying during the storm as it could affect the motherboard of the device.

That big ball of flame in the sky does far more than give us light and heat. The sun majorly affects everything from all types of weather to earthquakes to volcanic eruptions. man has very little if any impact on anything related to this. The only climate change we need to worry about is the future grand solar minimum that will be taking us into a famine that will affect the entire world and it’s food sources and much more.

If you are reading this post please keep coming back. Over the next several years I will be posting several research papers about how our sun affects our earth, from the environment to the weather. This is REAL science with REAL PROOF and REAL TRUTH! Till next time! MP.

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Morning Observations – December 3. 2022

The skies are mostly clear today. Light intensity is sitting at 41680 lx. Temperature at 23.4 degrees and rising. We will only get to about 35 degrees give or take. The barometric pressure is pretty high. Sitting at 30.65 inches and steady. The dew point is sitting pretty dry at 12 degrees. Winds are out the WNW at 7 mph. We are expecting overcast by 3pm today. No preciptiation expected.

Not a whole lot going on the radar.

Current Reflectivity Radar
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RESEARCH PAPER – Linking Solar Intensity With Temperature

Bright orange fiery sun with solar flares

Abstract

I collected several months of weather measurements based on the AcuRite Atlas 7-in-1 weather station. Since September 1, 2022, I have collected over 25,470 data points every 5 minutes. This revealed an interesting pattern between the sun’s light intensity and temperature and how its light intensity directly affects the environment’s temperature. This is just one of many different research papers that I will be writing based on weather and climate to debunk this push for climate change and global warming and prove that climate change is natural and caused by natural phenomena.

Introduction

There are a lot of papers and discussions about our weather and temperature. While doing a search on this particular topic in comparing the light intensity of the sun to the temperature, there does not seem to be very many papers on it. My hypothesis is this. Can light intensity affect the temperature of the planet? This will reveal what sorts of impacts the sun’s light intensity will have on the temperature of our planet and how much influence it has. This experiment will continue over the next few years since I cannot access any archived historical data on the sun’s light intensity. Without a source, I am stuck collecting all this data myself and making comparisons over time. I hypothesize that measured temperatures will follow the sunlight intensity between seasons. I believe this is due to the earth’s rotation around the sun. Scientists have stated in the past that during the winter, we are further away from the sun, and in the summer, we are closer to the sun.

Materials and Methods

Since I do not have any resources for the sun’s light intensity and measured light, I will have to collect this data myself over time. I started on September 1, 2022, and this data is being collected every twenty-nine days utilizing the AcuRite Atlas 7-in-1 home weather station, and data is downloaded and collected once a month. The data is collected by Atlas every 5 minutes. Timestamp, light measurement in LUX or lx, the standard measurement in luminance, and measured temperature data, which is measured in Fahrenheit, are saved in an excel spreadsheet and used for line graph creations with a trend line added. Thus far, we have collected over 25,470 measurements every 5 minutes since September 1, 2022. This research will continue over the next two years to examine the patterns and associations between the sun’s light intensity and the atmospheric temperature.

Results

Over the past three months, trend analysis reveals a clear link between solar light intensity and temperature. Current data shows a significant association based on trend analysis of the data from September 1 to December 1 of 2022. we will see what happens when we begin to transition into spring around March time and will continue to add to this research as time progresses throughout the research window.

There was an issue displaying the chart. Please edit the chart in the admin area for more details.There was an issue displaying the chart. Please edit the chart in the admin area for more details.
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Morning Observations – December 2, 2022 – Wind

Wind problem today. We are under a wind advisory today. According to the Acurite Atlas, we are gusting at 16mph here at the ground level. We hit 20mph at about 5:23 am. Barometric pressure is at 29.86 inches with a temperature of 44 degrees and rising. The Dew point is at 37 degrees which is our current high. The radar is looking really clean and clear. Skies are mostly clear with small clouds sprinkled throughout. The National Weather Service has the entire county under a Wind advisory starting at 9 am till midnight tonight. They say we will have sustained winds from 20-30 mph and wind gusts up to 50mph.

Current Super Res Reflectivity Radar

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Rainy And Wet Saturday

Good morning our current conditions are wet and rainy. This is going to be one of those days that you want to curl up in bed and sleep. Every now and then I get an alert for lightning strikes. So far we have had 22 lightning strikes since about 12:55 this morning. The rain did not start till this morning.

Looking at the Accurite rain gauge, it shows we are sitting at 0.13 inches since it started about 6:21 this morning, Current radar shows that this Rain will not be going away anytime soon. The HRRR model shows rain off and on throughout the day today.

According to the various models from the COD, it looks like we should be drying out starting late evening tonight and the rest of the weekend looks to be dry. Skies will be mostly clear to clear and at times partly cloudy. Looks like the evening of the 4th will be dry.

That is about it for today.

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Marginal Change of Severe Weather Today

Good morning,

It looks like we will be under a marginal chance of severe weather over the next 24 hours according to today’s Severe Weather Outlook.



Looking at the HRRR models on the COD webpage it looks like we have a start time of 2300 Zulu or 6 pm CST for the Jackson County Area for possible rain and severe weather. With it being so late in the season it may not be much, we will have to wait and see when it gets closer.



According to the HRRR models, the simulated reflectivity shows a fairly decent storm for this evening. In addition, the SCP shows the possibility of supercell activity for the Jackson County area. Maybe a little stronger up along the northern border of our county and just to the east of the center.




Dew points will be in the mid to upper 60s at the start time of the storm so it will have plenty of moisture in the air.

That is pretty much it for today. Take care everyone. Enjoy your day.

Michael Pratt

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Forecast for Monday April 18, 2022

Good evening. I decided to give my website some love tonight. I have updated all the plugins and themes for the site. I hope everyone had a great day with Easter. I am sitting here on my reclining loveseat with my beautiful wife watching Reed Timmer chase down some storms in Mississippi via Facebook Live and brainstorming on ideas to help get information out in a better way.

We should be pretty much done with the rain today. Looking at tomorrow’s forecast it looks to be spring-like temperatures reaching about 53 degrees give or take by 5 pm tomorrow evening. We will start off with temperatures of about 33 degrees by 7 am in the morning. We should see some sun starting about 10 am and will continue throughout the day and well into Tuesday morning at about 9 am when another band of clouds and overcast move into the area. Winds will hit about 30 mph gusts by 1 pm tomorrow afternoon.

The HRRR shows about 53 degrees give or take by 5 pm tomorrow evening,.
HRRR Wind gusts by 1 pm about 26 knots or 30 mph.

We are pretty uneventful for tomorrow. I poked around the GFS long ranger and it does not really look like a whole lot of anything for the next 10+ days. It is pretty uneventful. It looks like we are done with the snow and ice too. Looking at temperatures it looks like we may be a pretty normal transition with a few sprinkles of cooler weather in the upper 30s to lower 40s every now and then. That is about it for tonight. Take care. Michael Pratt

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November 9th 2019 Forecast

Good morning Blue Springs! I pray that your evening was blessed. It is a crisp clear morning this morning. Skies are clear. No precipitation to report. This weekend maybe a good weekend to put up your Christmas lights. Do some yard work, or spend some time outside enjoying the beautiful fall colors. Come Monday temperatures will be a shocker. Highs will be in the low 30s. Dew point temperatures will be in the low single digits. So very dry. Time to break out the hand lotion, or the humidifier so we don’t all flake away. This is the time of the year that I can’t stand. My legs get so bad and dried out.

CURRENT CONDITIONS

Temperature is 36.6°. We had a high of 41.5 and a low of 18.5 over the past 24 hours. Barometric pressure is 1013( 29.91 inches) and falling. Relative humidity is 72%. Winds are at 2 guesting to seven out of the West. Dew point temperature is 27°. Feels like 29°. Skies are clear. No precipitation to report.

FORECAST

Today, temperatures in the upper 60s. Chance of precipitation 0%. Dew point temperature will be in the upper 30s. Skies will be clear.

Tonight, temperatures in the low 40s. Chance of precipitation 0%. Dew point temperature in the low 40s. Skies will be clear.

Sunday, temperatures in the upper 50s. Chance of precipitation 1%. Dew point temperature in the upper 30s. Skies will be clear to mostly clear.

Sunday night, temperatures in the upper 20s. Chance of precipitation 21%. Dew point temperature in the upper 30s to Upper 20s by 3am. Skies will be mostly cloudy to cloudy. Snow possible after midnight.

Monday, temperatures in the low 30s. Chance of precipitation 7%. Dew point temperature in the upper teens to single digits. Skies will be cloudy to mostly cloudy.

Monday night, temperatures in the low teens. Chance of precipitation 2%. Dew point temperature in the low single digits. Skies will be clear.

MODEL DISCUSSION

Looking at models for this weekend oh, there is nothing going on. Monday however, is a different story. System should start moving in by about midnight Monday morning, then really transition into a snow by 6am. Snow amounts can be up to a tenth of an inch. In some areas of Jackson County you may not get anything at all. It just all depends on where the system lands. Should have a fairly accurate forecast within about 12 to 24 hours before. Temperatures will definitely be much colder indefinitely the coldest for the entire season.

Opening day of deer season on Saturday November 16th it will be wet. Looking at our state overall it looks to be pretty scattered. As far as Jackson County is concerned, we will be getting some rain that morning. Temperatures will be in the low 50s on Saturday. Sunday it will be in the upper 40s. Not sure if deer are going to be active that weekend or not. Hopefully those temperatures will drop a little more.

That is pretty much it for today, may your weekend be a blessing. Be careful this weekend if you are going to be in the yard or on the roof.

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November 8th 2019 Frosty Forecast

Happy Friday everyone! Jack Frost came by this morning. The grass is crunchy, and sparkled with frost. It is pretty cold outside. Skies are clear. No precipitation to report.

CURRENT CONDITIONS

Temperature is at 19.4°. We had a high of 37.0 and a low of 19.3. Relative humidity 90%. Barometric pressure 1028 (30.36 inches) and steady. Winds are at 0. Dew point temperature at 14°. Feels like 12°.

FORECAST

Today, temperatures will be in the upper 40s. Chance of precipitation 0%. Dew point temperature in the upper teens. Skies will be mostly clear to clear.

Tonight, temperatures in the upper 30s. Chance of precipitation 0%. Dew point temperature in the upper 20s. Skies will be mostly clear.

Saturday, temperatures in the low 60s. Chance of rain 0%. Dew point temperature in the upper 30s. Skies will be clear.

Saturday night, temperatures in the low 40s. Chance of precipitation 0%. Dew point temperature in the low 40s. Skies will be clear.

Sunday, temperatures will be in the low 50s. Chance of precipitation 0%. Dew point temperature in the upper 30s. Skies will be mostly clear.

Sunday night, temperatures in the upper 20s. Chance of precipitation 31%. Dew point temperature in the low 30s to low 20s. Skies will be partly cloudy to mostly cloudy.

MODEL DISCUSSION

There is still a possible chance for snow Monday. Current models do not show any sort of accumulation at this time. We will have more information as we progress into the weekend. the GFS model shows possible freezing rain as well. Other than that there is nothing past Monday. We will just have to wait and see more details by Sunday.

Have a good day everyone! Be safe.