Author: Michael

Posted on

Marginal Change of Severe Weather Today

Good morning,

It looks like we will be under a marginal chance of severe weather over the next 24 hours according to today’s Severe Weather Outlook.



Looking at the HRRR models on the COD webpage it looks like we have a start time of 2300 Zulu or 6 pm CST for the Jackson County Area for possible rain and severe weather. With it being so late in the season it may not be much, we will have to wait and see when it gets closer.



According to the HRRR models, the simulated reflectivity shows a fairly decent storm for this evening. In addition, the SCP shows the possibility of supercell activity for the Jackson County area. Maybe a little stronger up along the northern border of our county and just to the east of the center.




Dew points will be in the mid to upper 60s at the start time of the storm so it will have plenty of moisture in the air.

That is pretty much it for today. Take care everyone. Enjoy your day.

Michael Pratt

Posted on

Forecast for Monday April 18, 2022

Good evening. I decided to give my website some love tonight. I have updated all the plugins and themes for the site. I hope everyone had a great day with Easter. I am sitting here on my reclining loveseat with my beautiful wife watching Reed Timmer chase down some storms in Mississippi via Facebook Live and brainstorming on ideas to help get information out in a better way.

We should be pretty much done with the rain today. Looking at tomorrow’s forecast it looks to be spring-like temperatures reaching about 53 degrees give or take by 5 pm tomorrow evening. We will start off with temperatures of about 33 degrees by 7 am in the morning. We should see some sun starting about 10 am and will continue throughout the day and well into Tuesday morning at about 9 am when another band of clouds and overcast move into the area. Winds will hit about 30 mph gusts by 1 pm tomorrow afternoon.

The HRRR shows about 53 degrees give or take by 5 pm tomorrow evening,.
HRRR Wind gusts by 1 pm about 26 knots or 30 mph.

We are pretty uneventful for tomorrow. I poked around the GFS long ranger and it does not really look like a whole lot of anything for the next 10+ days. It is pretty uneventful. It looks like we are done with the snow and ice too. Looking at temperatures it looks like we may be a pretty normal transition with a few sprinkles of cooler weather in the upper 30s to lower 40s every now and then. That is about it for tonight. Take care. Michael Pratt

Posted on

November 9th 2019 Forecast

Good morning Blue Springs! I pray that your evening was blessed. It is a crisp clear morning this morning. Skies are clear. No precipitation to report. This weekend maybe a good weekend to put up your Christmas lights. Do some yard work, or spend some time outside enjoying the beautiful fall colors. Come Monday temperatures will be a shocker. Highs will be in the low 30s. Dew point temperatures will be in the low single digits. So very dry. Time to break out the hand lotion, or the humidifier so we don’t all flake away. This is the time of the year that I can’t stand. My legs get so bad and dried out.

CURRENT CONDITIONS

Temperature is 36.6°. We had a high of 41.5 and a low of 18.5 over the past 24 hours. Barometric pressure is 1013( 29.91 inches) and falling. Relative humidity is 72%. Winds are at 2 guesting to seven out of the West. Dew point temperature is 27°. Feels like 29°. Skies are clear. No precipitation to report.

FORECAST

Today, temperatures in the upper 60s. Chance of precipitation 0%. Dew point temperature will be in the upper 30s. Skies will be clear.

Tonight, temperatures in the low 40s. Chance of precipitation 0%. Dew point temperature in the low 40s. Skies will be clear.

Sunday, temperatures in the upper 50s. Chance of precipitation 1%. Dew point temperature in the upper 30s. Skies will be clear to mostly clear.

Sunday night, temperatures in the upper 20s. Chance of precipitation 21%. Dew point temperature in the upper 30s to Upper 20s by 3am. Skies will be mostly cloudy to cloudy. Snow possible after midnight.

Monday, temperatures in the low 30s. Chance of precipitation 7%. Dew point temperature in the upper teens to single digits. Skies will be cloudy to mostly cloudy.

Monday night, temperatures in the low teens. Chance of precipitation 2%. Dew point temperature in the low single digits. Skies will be clear.

MODEL DISCUSSION

Looking at models for this weekend oh, there is nothing going on. Monday however, is a different story. System should start moving in by about midnight Monday morning, then really transition into a snow by 6am. Snow amounts can be up to a tenth of an inch. In some areas of Jackson County you may not get anything at all. It just all depends on where the system lands. Should have a fairly accurate forecast within about 12 to 24 hours before. Temperatures will definitely be much colder indefinitely the coldest for the entire season.

Opening day of deer season on Saturday November 16th it will be wet. Looking at our state overall it looks to be pretty scattered. As far as Jackson County is concerned, we will be getting some rain that morning. Temperatures will be in the low 50s on Saturday. Sunday it will be in the upper 40s. Not sure if deer are going to be active that weekend or not. Hopefully those temperatures will drop a little more.

That is pretty much it for today, may your weekend be a blessing. Be careful this weekend if you are going to be in the yard or on the roof.

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November 8th 2019 Frosty Forecast

Happy Friday everyone! Jack Frost came by this morning. The grass is crunchy, and sparkled with frost. It is pretty cold outside. Skies are clear. No precipitation to report.

CURRENT CONDITIONS

Temperature is at 19.4°. We had a high of 37.0 and a low of 19.3. Relative humidity 90%. Barometric pressure 1028 (30.36 inches) and steady. Winds are at 0. Dew point temperature at 14°. Feels like 12°.

FORECAST

Today, temperatures will be in the upper 40s. Chance of precipitation 0%. Dew point temperature in the upper teens. Skies will be mostly clear to clear.

Tonight, temperatures in the upper 30s. Chance of precipitation 0%. Dew point temperature in the upper 20s. Skies will be mostly clear.

Saturday, temperatures in the low 60s. Chance of rain 0%. Dew point temperature in the upper 30s. Skies will be clear.

Saturday night, temperatures in the low 40s. Chance of precipitation 0%. Dew point temperature in the low 40s. Skies will be clear.

Sunday, temperatures will be in the low 50s. Chance of precipitation 0%. Dew point temperature in the upper 30s. Skies will be mostly clear.

Sunday night, temperatures in the upper 20s. Chance of precipitation 31%. Dew point temperature in the low 30s to low 20s. Skies will be partly cloudy to mostly cloudy.

MODEL DISCUSSION

There is still a possible chance for snow Monday. Current models do not show any sort of accumulation at this time. We will have more information as we progress into the weekend. the GFS model shows possible freezing rain as well. Other than that there is nothing past Monday. We will just have to wait and see more details by Sunday.

Have a good day everyone! Be safe.

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October 7th 2019 Stinky Forecast 💩

Good morning Blue Springs! Not sure where that smell came from last night. One of the kids from my youth, after being outside, walked up to me and told me that it smelled like butt outside. My wife was blaming me. She thought I stepped in dog poop. It was quite the talk last night! The National Weather Service posted this last night on Twitter. It was a pretty crappy post.

NWS thoughts: This cold front has a shallow mixing layer (up to 2kft) trapping everything into this shallow part of the atmosphere. The front moved quickly from IA to KC with strong winds which transported in an “agriculture” smell from farms N of here.

That is definitely cold outside compared to yesterday. We were supposed to have some drizzly rain overnight but that didn’t happen either. Everything was south of us and changed at the last minute. You might say that it was a crappy forecast. LOL!

CURRENT CONDITIONS

Temperature is 30.5°. We had a high of 63.7 and a low of 30.4 over the past 24 hours. What a temperature spread! Relative humidity 78%. Barometric pressure is 1028( 30.36 inches) and Rising. Windsor at 5 gusting to 8 out of the north northwest. Dew point temperature is 24°. Skies are cloudy. No precipitation to report. Feels like 22°.

FORECAST

Today, temperatures in the upper 30s. Chance of precipitation 1%. Dew point temperature in the low teens dropping to 10 by 3pm. Cloud should move out by 6am making Skies clear.

Tonight, temperatures in the low 20s. Chance of precipitation 0%. Dew point temperature in the low teens. Skies will be clear.

Friday, temperatures in the mid to upper 40s. Chance of precipitation 0%. Dew point temperature in the low teens. Skies will be mostly clear to clear.

Friday night, temperatures in the low 30s. Chance of precipitation 0%. Dew point temperature in the low twenties. Skies will be mostly clear to clear.

Saturday, temperatures in the low 60s. Chance of precipitation 0%. Dew point temperature in the upper 30s. Skies will be clear.

Saturday night, temperatures in the low 40s. Chance of precipitation 0%. Dew point temperature in the low 40s. Skies will be clear.

MODEL DISCUSSION

Current models don’t show a whole lot going on through the weekend. The good news is the weekend’s going to be pretty nice! Monday, however, looks to have possible snow. I know in the past I’ve said it’s been pretty clear, but now you know models change daily! If there is any accumulation, it will be less than a half an inch.

We will have a really cold start on Monday morning with temperatures in the low teens, 14° give give or take.

As for opening season for deer. The rain that was set for Saturday has been pushed to Sunday. Temperatures also look to be about upper 40s to low 50s during the day. Saturday morning early will be in the upper 30s. By 9 a.m. temperatures will be on the average of upper 30s to low 40s throughout the state.

That is pretty much it for today. I hope and pray you have a safe trip to and from work. Blessings.

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November 6th 2019 Forecast

Good morning Blue Springs! It’s hump day! Temperature is not too bad outside. Winds are practically at a standstill. Skies are lit up with stars with a clear morning sky. I hope everyone had a good night sleep and your week has gone well. If it has not, I’m praying that God will see you through it.

CURRENT CONDITIONS

Current temperature is 38.9°. We had a high of 54.5 and a low of 32.7 over the past 24 hours. Relative humidity is 93%. Barometric pressure is 1019 and steady. Winds are at 1 gusting to 1 out of the East Northeast. Dew point temperature is 35°. Skies are clear. No precipitation to report. Feels like 33°.

FORECAST

Today, temperatures will be in the low 60s. Chance of precipitation 15%. Dew point temperature in the upper 40s. Skies will be mostly cloudy to partly cloudy.

Tonight, temperatures in the low 30s. Chance of precipitation 37%. Dew point temperature shifting to the upper 20s by 3am. Skies will be cloudy. Rain possible.

Thursday, temperatures in the upper 30s. Chance of precipitation 4%. Dew point temperature in the low teens. Skies will be clear.

Thursday night, temperatures in the low 20s. Chance of precipitation 0%. Dew point temperature in the upper teens. Skies will be clear.

Friday, temperatures in the low 40s. Chance of precipitation 0%. Dew point temperature in the low teens. Skies will be partly cloudy.

Friday night, temperatures in the low 30s. Chance of precipitation 0%. Dew point temperature in the upper 20s. Skies will be clear.

MODEL DISCUSSION

Current model steel show trace precipitation by 7pm this evening. Total precipitation when it is all said and done will be .02 inches give or take. The Eastern edge of Jackson County could get as much as .04 inches give or take. Models do show the possibility of freezing rain during this time frame but the accumulations are minimal and should not cause any problems. You should always lean on the side of caution and keep an eye on temperatures if you are out driving and it’s raining out. I did notice that rain switches to sleet about 35 degrees when I watched the last system that we had produce a mix.

Veterans Day weekend, if you are off on Monday like I am, it is looking like a beautiful three day weekend with no precipitation. Saturday and Sunday will be in the upper 50s to low 60s. Clear skies through Sunday. So that gives you all time to pick up all those fall leaves out of your yard. If anybody wants to pick up the leaves in my yard, feel free 😁.

Opening day for deer season looks to be wet at this time across most of Missouri. Something to prepare for if you are planning on going out that weekend.

That is pretty much it for today. Have a safe trip to work. Enjoy your hump day. Be safe driving home. Praying for you all.

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November 5th 2019 Forecast

Good morning Blue Springs and all who follow. I pray that everyone had a good night sleep and a great evening last night. Skies are clear in the constellation Orion is high in the beautiful night sky.

CURRENT CONDITIONS

Temperature is 35.4. We had a high of 51.5 and a low of 35.4 over the past 24 hours. Relative humidity is 89%. Barometric pressure 1023(30.21 inches) and rising. Winds are at 0. Dew point temperature is 30°. Feels like 30°.

FORECAST

Today, temperature in the low 50s. Chance of precipitation 1%. Dew point temperature in the low 30s. Skies will be partly cloudy to mostly clear.

Tonight, temperatures in the low 40s. Chance of precipitation 0%. Dew point temperature in the upper 30s. Skies will be mostly clear to clear.

Wednesday, temperatures in e 60s. Chance of precipitation 12%. Dew point temperature in the upper 40s. Skies will be mostly clear to mostly cloudy by 3pm.

Wednesday night, temperatures in the low 30s. Chance of precipitation 51%. Dew point temperatures in the upper 40s dropping to the low 30s by 3am. Skies will be mostly cloudy to cloudy. Rain likely.

Thursday, temperatures in the upper 30s. Chance of precipitation 12%. Dew point temperature in the upper teens. Skies will be cloudy Shifting the partly cloudy to mostly clear by 3pm.

Thursday night, temperatures in the low 20s. Chance of precipitation 1%. Dew point temperature in the upper teens. Skies will be clear.

MODEL DISCUSSION

Looking at models for Wednesday at 6pm, looks like the system will start out scattered was rain and build up from there. It will continue off and on throughout Thursday. It will end about 3am early Thursday morning. The system will bring in cold dry air from the north. It will cause temperatures to struggle. Looks like eyes will be below 40 most of the day. As evening approaches, temperatures will drop Thursday into Friday. Temperatures will be as low as 24 degrees give or take. If you remember I talked about Veterans Day being possible snow and ice oh, that has since disappeared over the past couple of days. It is looking like the weekend is going to be fairly nice without any precipitation. This Saturday looks to be in the upper 50s. Lows will be in the upper 30s. Sunday’s high will be in the upper 30s. Sunday into Monday will be in the low 20s possibly into the teens. That is the only thing that we have to deal with over the weekend at this time.

That is pretty much it for today. Have a safe trip to and from work. Take care of yourselves.

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November 4th 2019 Forecast

THE IMPORTANT STUFF

Good morning Blue Springs! Another weekend has gone oh, and another Monday has arrived. I am not sure why we have put this profile on Monday as being the worst day. I don’t look at it that way. Any day of the week can be just as bad. It all depends on perspective. I am thankful that I woke up today. We cannot guarantee every heartbeat of Our Lives. God knows how many heartbeats we will beat till we take our last one. The real question we need to ask ourselves is where will we go after we take our last breath. I know where I will go, do you? If you are concerned about that, please let me know. I can help you know the answer. It is a wonderful thing to understand I know where you go when you took your last breath. He gives you a peace that surpasses all understanding. The changes your perspective on life and death. Life is but a vapor. You can have purpose. You can have meaning. I can help you find that. You may think that life is great right now, but it can be better for you. You can be set free from the bondages in your life. Many people that I have talked to, and shared, and have accepted the freedom in Christ, I’ve always stated that the weight that they have been carrying for so many years, has been lifted. A person that truly cares for another person will reveal it through their words and their actions with no expectation of a return. I want you all to know I pray for you often, to and from work. I beg God daily that He would reveal himself to you, and radically change your lives just like He has changed mine. It is unfair that I keep this to myself, when I know that it is real. How much do you have to hate a person, to not share was in the love of the Lord Jesus Christ, and how he died, and rose again on the third day according to the scriptures. The greatest thing about being in a relationship with the Lord Jesus Christ, is that I didn’t have to do anything first. All I had to do was Reach Out with open hands and humility, asking Jesus to forgive me and to come into my life to save me. That alone, cause me to change my direction, my path, my heart. I was set free of all my bondages in sin and God gave me joy and peace unspeakable. He can do that for you too. Just reach out to me. Don’t wait another day. Don’t Wait Another Minute. You don’t have the promise of tomorrow oh, you don’t even have the promise of the next minute or second. As far as you know today will be your last day. I want you to spend eternity in heaven with me and the many others that have received Christ as their personal Lord and Saviour.

CURRENT CONDITIONS

It is currently cloudy. No precipitation to report. Temperature is 45.4. We had a high of 61.6 and a low of 37.9. Relative humidity 76%. Barometric pressure 1012( 29.88 inches) and steady. Winds are at 0 gusting to 6 out of the Southwest. Dew point temperature is 37°. Feels like 41°.

FORECAST

Today, temperature will be in the low 50s. Chance of precipitation 18%. Dew point temperature in the upper 30s. Skies will be cloudy.

Tonight, temperatures in the low 30s. Chance of precipitation 16%. Dew point temperature in the upper 30s to low 30s. Skies will be mostly cloudy to partly cloudy to mostly clear by morning.

Tuesday, temperatures in the mid to Upper 50s. Chance of precipitation 0%. Dew point temperature in the low 30s. Skies will be clear.

Tuesday night, temperatures in the low 40s. Chance of precipitation 2%. Dew point temperature in the upper 30s. Skies will be clear to partly cloudy.

Wednesday, temperatures in the low 60s. Chance of precipitation 11%. Dew point temperature in the upper 40s. Skies will be partly cloudy to mostly clear.

Wednesday night, temperatures in the low 30s. Chance of precipitation 41%. Dew point temperature in the low 40s to low 30s. Skies will be mostly cloudy.

MODEL DISCUSSION

I may have these times a little mixed up with the time change. Please bear with me as I try and figure this out over the next couple of times. Not sure if I should subtract 5 or 6 hours from that time.

Models for today Show rain starting at 1pm in the northern part of Jackson County, moving southward. Rain should be in the Blue Springs area by 3pm today or a little before. Rain will continue till about 6pm this evening. Rain amounts will only be a trace so more than likely it will be a drizly misty type rain.

Our next chance of precipitation will be around Wednesday evening late around 11pm. Friday November 8th around 3 p.m. could have the possibility of some flurries, but models do not show any accumulation.

As for Veterans Day it looks like we could have a dusting or a Trace by 7am Monday morning. Models have changed substantially for that day. We may be avoiding the ice according to this model, but Southern Jackson County could get a trace of ice.

That is pretty much up for today folks. I hope and pray you would consider what I talked about in the beginning of this post. This is coming from somebody who cares very much about your eternal destination, as well as getting to know you as a person. I would love to discuss more about this to you whether it is on Facebook, or some other means. May your day be a blessing today. Be careful driving to work and coming home.

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November 3rd 2019 Forecast

Good morning Blue Springs! Happy Sunday! It is clear skies this morning. No precipitation to report. Hope all had a good night sleep and I hope everyone set their clocks back an hour. I really wish they would get rid of daylight savings time.

CURRENT CONDITIONS

Relative humidity 71%. Barometric pressure 1017(30.03 inches) and falling. Winds are at 5 gusting to 7 out of the west southwest. Dew point temperature is 28°. Feels like 30°. Skies are clear. No precipitation to report.

FORECAST

Today, temperatures in the upper 50s. Chance of precipitation 0%. Dew point temperature in the upper 30s. Skies will be clear becoming mostly cloudy by noon. Then shifting back to clear.

Tonight, temperatures in the low 40s. Chance of precipitation is 0%. Dew point temperature in the upper 30s to low 40s. Skies will be mostly clear to partly cloudy.

Monday, temperatures in the low 50s. Chance of precipitation 2%. Dew point temperature in the upper 30s. Skies will be partly cloudy to mostly cloudy.

Monday night, temperatures in the low 30s. Chance of precipitation 1%. Dew point temperature in the low 30s. Skies will be mostly clear.

Tuesday, temperatures in the low 50s. Chance of precipitation 1%. Dew point temperature in the low 30s. Skies will be clear.

Tuesday night, temperatures in the low 40s. Chance of precipitation 7%. Dew point temperature in the low 30s to upper 30s. Skies will be partly cloudy to mostly clear.

MODEL DISCUSSION

Models don’t show a whole lot up through Wednesday. Monday November 11th is flip-flopping. Currently model show nothing in our area, but it is around the other counties. I still will keep an eye on that day in case things change. With it being so far ahead it doesn’t surprise me that the models are doing that. Wednesday November 13th we have a fairly large system the starts out as rain throughout the entire day and into Thursday morning. Then the system shifts to ice by 7am and Snow by 4pm. This is another system that we need to keep an eye on.

That is about it for today. Enjoy your day of worship if that is what you do. May the Lord Jesus Christ speak to you and radically change your life. Be safe out there.

Posted on

November 2nd 2019 Forecast

Good morning Blue Springs, I hope and pray that everyone had a good Friday evening, and that you all had a good night’s sleep. Jack Frost came and visited us last night, as we have some light frost on the grass.

CURRENT CONDITIONS

Temperature is at 35.1. We had a high of 54.1 and a low of 29.5. Relative humidity is 89%. Barometric pressure is 1024(30.24 inches) and steady. Winds are 0 gusting to 4 out of the Southwest. Dew point temperature is 30°. Skies are clear. No precipitation to report. Feels like 29°.

FORECAST

Today, temperature in the low 50s. Chance of precipitation 0%. Dew point temperature in the upper twenties. Skies will be clear.

Tonight, temperatures in the upper 30s. Chance of precipitation 0%. Dew point temperature in the upper 20s. Skies will be clear.

Sunday, temperatures in the upper 50s. Chance of precipitation 0%. Dew point temperature in the low 30s to upper 30s. Skies will be mostly clear.

Sunday night, temperatures in the low 40s. Chance of precipitation 0%. Dew point temperature in the upper 30s. Skies will be partly cloudy to mostly clear.

Monday, temperatures will be in the upper 50s. Chance of precipitation 2%. Dew point temperature in the upper 30s. Skies will be partly cloudy to mostly cloudy.

Monday night, temperatures in the upper 30s. Chance of precipitation 5%. Dew point temperature in the upper 30s. Skies will be partly cloudy to mostly cloudy.

MODEL DISCUSSION

This weekend will be beautiful, with no precipitation. Monday morning at about 4am, we may have a small bout of precipitation move in. Models right now show no signs of precipitation, but there will be some clouds hovering about that could bring some. What system should be out by 10am. Jackson County could get clipped by another small system passing through on Tuesday morning at 1am November 5th. This may not produce anything but it is just something to know. Tuesday night into Wednesday morning could bring us some precipitation in the form of rain. This system should be out by 7am Thursday morning. A larger system will be passing through on Sunday November 10th after about 2pm. Bringing rain throughout the day and evening hours. The back side of the system could bring some ice and snow around 10pm on November 11th. The system should be out before 4am Tuesday November 12th.

That’s pretty much it for today. The weekends going to be nice to be able to get the yard mowed and do whatever else. Enjoy your weekend and talk to you soon.