Weather Discussion - Blue Springs Weather

January 6, 2024January 6, 2024

Tuesday January 9, 2024 – Winter Weather Update

Good morning. This Winter Weather Update is from the morning of January 6, 2024. If you are reading this a day later, it is old data and you need to go to my Facebook page or my most recent blog post if I have one.

I have been watching the models, and we may have some snow that can hinder driving and make roads slightly dangerous. The key to a safe drive is TIRES with GOOD tread! You will have issues getting around if your tires do not have good tread

Looking at the Weather Prediction Center we are looking at up to 40% change of snow accumulations at 4 inches or greater for the Jackson County area. The break down of snow amounts for Tuesday January 9, 2024 is this:

Precipitation Chances
1″ or greater of snow accumulation – 90%
2″ or greater of snow accumulation – 60%
4″ or greater of snow accumulation – 30%

Winter Weather Update for 4 inches of snow or greater from WPC — Winter Weather Update from WPC

Winter Weather Update Snow amounts from WPC — Winter Weather Update from WPC

Looking at the NAM model for snow amounts is the perfect esample why I don’t like snow amounts for the usual models I use for severe weather. They are shows 5+ inches of snow and all it does is give me a good belly laugh. These are the things that the Media are going to EAT up instead of heading over to the Weather Prediction Center and getting the correct model for snow amounts.

Winter Weather Snow amounts from NAM Model

Severity will be minor according to the Severity index. But that ALL depends on your tire condition. I am sure the NWS will kick off a winter weather advisory / watch soon.

That is pretty much it for today. Stay away from the media for a bit. They are really going nuts out there with this stuff. I would go with the one that is less dramatic on their posts and television forecasts. Take care everyone and enjoy your weekend. I will keep you posted on social media or do another blog post if there are any more changes to this forecast.

November 26, 2023December 4, 2023

Sunday Forecast and Significant Amount of Sunspots for November 26, 2023

Good morning. Here is the Sunday Forecast, but first, the measurements and current weather. I am ready for the summer now—enough of this white stuff. I walked out to get the Stratus and get measurements. We ended with 2.4 inches of snow with a liquid equivalent of .27 inches. That makes the ratio 8.9 inches of snow to 1 inch of liquid. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) was off by about an inch. God said, “Here is a little more to grow on.” He is in control. The WPC is still a more accurate source than the snow amounts for others.

The current temperature is 25° F. Skies are mostly cloudy, and winds are three miles per hour out of the northwest. The relative humidity is at 92%. The barometric pressure is at 29.83 inches of mercury. The radar is pretty clear, and the atmosphere is pretty dry now.

Water Vapor Loop for Sunday Forecast — Water Vapor Loop

Here is the Sunday Forecast for today. We will hit a high of 36° F, give or take, by 3 pm. It will be a bit breezy today, with wind gusts peaking at about 27-28 miles per hour by noon today. Winds should begin to calm down at about 6 pm tonight.

HRRR model for the Sunday forecast. — Temperature

Wind gust model for Sunday Forecast — Temperature

Lots of activity on the sun’s surface. There are still lots of sunspots. The sun is trying to hold on to that solar maximum before it goes back to sleep and becomes dormant again.

That is all I have to talk about today. Take care. MP

November 25, 2023December 5, 2023

Winter Weather Update | How much snow will we get?

Good morning. Here is the latest winter weather update. I was looking at the latest models. The start time is about 2 pm for rain, and shifts to snow by 5 pm. The Weather Prediction Center still shows a mix as this system moves through the area. The snow probability of one inch or greater has shifted to about 40-50% for the Blue Springs Area, and 60-70% of snow amounts to 1 inch and greater for Independence and Kansas City. With snow amounts of 2 inches and greater, the percentage drops substantially for all areas, so I would not count on more than an inch of accumulation, if any.

Winter weather update from HRRR Type — HRRR Type for winter weather update.

HRRR Precipitation Type — HRRR Type for winter weather update.

Precipitation amounts for the HRRR show too much snow. It sits at 1.8 inches of snow by 10 pm, and the NAM shows snow amounts that are way too much at 4 inches plus. The reason why I don’t subscribe to those is because of the Weather Prediction Center. Don’t hold your breath for an accumulation of 4 inches, or even one inch for that matter, for Blue Springs.

NAM Snow amounts after system passes through

The current temperature is about 26° F. The HRRR models show a high of almost 39° F, give or take, by 1 pm. After that, the temperature will begin to fall, and it looks to hover around 33° F by evening.

That is about it for today. If anything else changes, I will likely post it on Facebook directly. Take care. MP

November 18, 2023November 19, 2023

Weather Forecast for Sunday, November 19, 2023

Good morning! I was poking around the models this morning on this bright, clear, and beautiful day. Our weather forecast for Sunday afternoon will be wet and rainy. According to the HRRR models, we will have a start time of about noon tomorrow with rain. It will be about 66°, and the temperature will begin to fall as this system passes through the area. By 6 pm, the temperature will be around 52°. By midnight Sunday into Monday, it will be about 45°. The rain looks to continue off and on throughout the afternoon and well into Monday morning.

Weather forecast from HRRR Precipitation Type — HRRR Precipitation Type at noon CST or 6 pm GMT.

Rain amounts up to midnight Monday morning show about 0.23 inches.

Weather Forecast for Precipitation amounts from HRRR models. — HRRR Precipitation totals as of midnight Monday morning.

The WPC shows that we may have some actual thunderstorms. But we are way outside the severe aspect for this, so there may be a rumble or two. The WPC looks similar to the HRRR report for rain amounts at 0.25 inches.

Weather forecast model for the Weather Prediction Center — WPC model for Nevember 19, 2023

Weather Forecast model for QPF from Weather Prediction Center. — WPC Model for QPF for November 18,2023

That is about it for our weather forecast for today. Enjoy your Saturday! You can look at my previous post here. MP

March 2, 2023March 2, 2023

Blue Springs Weather Update

The start time for today’s Blue Springs Weather is about 8 pm tonight. It starts with rain. By that time, the temperature will be around 46 degrees.

Blue Springs Weather HRRR precipitation type model at 8pm — HRRR model for 8pm CST

Blue Springs Weather HRRR model at 8 pm tonight. — HRRR temperature model at 8 pm

Today’s Blue Springs weather high will be around 50 degrees by 4 pm. Skies will be overcast all day today, and there may be a very short window of opportunity for some sunshine a couple of times today.

Blue Springs Weather HRRR model for high temperature at 4 pm. — HRRR high temperature model at 4 pm

That is about it for today. Short and sweet and to the point. I will post more on social media as things change. MP

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February 25, 2023February 25, 2023

Blue Springs Weather: 2 Rounds of Rain Sunday

Storm Prediction Center for Blue Springs Weather

Good morning, Here is the latest Blue Springs weather and forecast through tomorrow. We did not get much precipitation yesterday—only 0.01 inches from yesterday’s freezing weather. As I have stated, keep an eye on the earthquake situation over the next three or more days. We have a massive earth-facing transequatorial coronal hole passing by. This will cause the solar winds to increase, and it will affect our environment and cause large earthquakes and volcanic eruptions around the globe, depending on where we are affected. I have proven this to you all from previous Facebook posts. Sunspot activity is still currently at maximum still. You can see that since sunspots are close to the equator on both sides of the hemispheres. Take a look at Spac e Weather Live for more interesting sun data.

Current Blue Springs Weather Conditions

In this section, I will discuss current conditions. Here are the latest conditions as of 07:14 am. The skies are clear, but that won’t last long. We will shift to overcast for the rest of the weekend. The temperature is 21.8°. The dew point is 21°. The relative humidity is 89%. The barometric pressure is 30.37 inches.

The Forecast

Here is an update to yesterday’s forecast for Blue Springs. We are looking at the HRRR Models for tomorrow. It looks like we will get two rounds of precipitation. Today we will reach a high of about 47°, give or take, by 4 pm. Skies will shift to overcast and will continue to be overcast over the rest of the weekend.

Nothing is expected for today, but tomorrow we are dealing with a marginal chance of severe weather, according to the Storm Prediction Center. However, we are still early in the season for anything significant to happen. Currently, the chances of a tornado are less than 2%. The chances of damaging winds are 5%, and the chances of large hail are 5%. As you can see in the image below, our entire county sits in a marginal chance. The high temperature for tomorrow shows a high of 57°, but that could be a little higher when we look at it tomorrow since I cannot go any further out on HRRR.

As we continue with the forecast, there are two rounds of rain coming in, with the main system being the second system. The first round will be in the area by 11 am, but it will start out scattered, and as time progresses, it will fill in the rest of the area. The second round will begin in the overnight hours into Monday morning. The start time for this will be about 11 pm Sunday evening. This is the main system. According to the Weather Prediction Center, we are forecasted to get three-quarters to one inch or more of rain accumulation with these two rounds of rain.

Conclusion

So that is it for today, so please consider a comment and add it to this post below. I spend a lot of time investigating and posting weather updates, and this can be a great and free way of supporting my mission. This helps me get higher up on the search. If you have your own website, please consider linking back to this post. That will also help with my rankings. If you have not signed up for my other website, please head over to Project Stormfront and subscribe to support my research on Weather.

February 11, 2023February 11, 2023

How is the Strength of a Tornado Measured?

Enhanced Fujita Scale Measures Strength of a Tornado

The strength of a tornado is determined using the Enhanced Fujita Scale, which assigns a rating from 0 to 5 based on the observed damage. To determine the strength of a tornado, experts examine the type of objects that were affected, the extent of the destruction, and the size of the affected area.

In addition to the EF scale, eyewitness accounts and the presence of other tornadoes in the area can also be taken into account when measuring the strength of a tornado. This is because tornadoes that occur in close proximity are likely to be related and, therefore, potentially of higher intensity.

Size and Shape Affect Strength of a Tornado

It is important to note that the size and shape of a tornado do not necessarily indicate its strength or its capability to inflict damage [1]. Tornadoes can range from a few feet to more than two miles in width and can cause destruction in various ways. For example, some tornadoes may produce winds that cause damage to buildings, while others may produce strong winds that cause trees to be uprooted.

Measurements

To effectively measure and monitor the strength of a tornado, it is important to use various tools and techniques. These can include radar, weather balloons, satellites, and eyewitness accounts. Using these tools, meteorologists can better predict the behavior of a tornado and provide more accurate warnings to the public.

Signs of an Impending Tornado

In addition, it is important to stay alert and be aware of the signs of an impending tornado, such as dark and greenish skies, large hail, and a loud roar. Taking shelter in a secure location and avoiding windows can help keep individuals safe in a tornado.

Measuring and monitoring tornadoes is important to be prepared for these storms and stay safe. Using the Enhanced Fujita Scale, meteorologists and weather researchers can accurately measure the strength of a tornado and provide more precise warnings to the public.

Read more about tornados and the 3 Things That Affect Tornado Strength.

February 3, 2023December 16, 2023

Wind Chill. Chill Out! Stop Using Calculations, Use Measured!

The wind chill, feels like, and heat index. They all three have one problem that makes them fail. They are CALCULATED! What does the media do? They take advantage of this calculation! It plays on your mind and what you are dealing with outdoors. Anyone can handle the weather if they are prepared for it. This post will likely anger some people, but you need to stop and read!

As winter approaches, we often hear the phrase “feels like” or “wind chill” temperature used to describe the weather conditions. While these terms are commonly used to give an idea of the actual temperature perceived by the human body, they are not accurate or reliable. Here are five reasons why wind chill and feels like temperatures should not be used.

The wind chill is a theoretical calculation.

The wind chill is a theoretical calculation. The wind chill is a mathematical formula that calculates the cooling effect of wind on the human body. The analysis is based on several assumptions, such as the wind speed, air temperature, and body size, which are not always accurate in real-life conditions. Moreover, the formula does not consider factors such as sun exposure, clothing, or relative humidity.

Windchill Chart — Wind Chill chart, Taken from the National Weather Service

Feels like temperature is subjective.

Feels like temperature is subjective. The “feels like” temperature is based on the wind chill and heat index, which are CALCULATED and not MEASURED. However, it is still subjective and depends on personal factors such as clothing, physical activity, and body type. As a result, what feels like a particular temperature to one person may not feel the same to another.

Different weather stations can have different readings.

Different weather stations can have different readings. Wind chill and feel-like temperature readings can vary greatly depending on the weather station’s location. For instance, a weather station in a rural area may report a different wind chill than one in a city due to the effects of urban heat islands.

Wind chill can be misleading.

Wind chill can be misleading. Wind chill values can often be lower than the actual temperature, making it appear colder outside than it is. It is relative to the individual. What one person thinks is cold, another person is not. It also plays on your mental state when dealing with weather. Media loves to do that.

The impact of wind chill decreases as the temperature rises.

The impact of wind chill decreases as the temperature rises. Wind chill has a more significant effect on the human body at lower temperatures. As the temperature increases, the impact of wind chill decreases, making it less relevant. This means that wind chill readings may not accurately reflect the conditions during warm winters.

In conclusion, wind chill and feels like temperatures should be used as a rough guide and not relied upon as an accurate representation of the weather conditions. The best way to gauge the temperature is to check the air temperature and always be prepared for changing weather conditions.

So please don’t let the media play mind games on you regarding the temperature. The measured temperature is the same in the wind and the calm. We don’t walk around naked in the winter anyways. You prepare, and you dress accordingly. It is common sense. If you go by this, you can make any temperature enjoyable and comfortable.

January 27, 2023February 8, 2023

Breezy and High Winds Today

Good morning. Here is today’s Blue Springs weather. The current temperature is 34.3°. Relative humidity at 69%. Pressure is at 29.94 inches and steady—Dewpoint at 27°. Winds are at 10 mph out of the south. Skies are clear at this time but will shift to cloudy, and there will be short periods of clear skies.

Forecast

Here is the latest forecast for today. The temperature will peak to about 49° today at 1pm and should melt the rest of the residual snow that we have. There is currently about 0.4 inches of snow left on the ground.

HRRR Models show a high of 49° by 1 pm today.

The main issue we will be dealing with today will be the winds. It is likely we will end up with a high wind advisory today. Winds will peak to about 46 mph between 9am and 11am today.

HRRR Wind Gust Models – Peak between 9 am and 11 am with gusts as high as 46 mph.

Conclusion

Tomorrow’s temperature will be around the mid to upper 50s but by evening the temperatures will begin to tank around 6pm and 7pm. Looks like temperatures will be in the teens by 6am Sunday morning,

As far as precipitation goes, nothing is to be expected over this weekend. That is about it for today’s Blue Springs weather and Jackson County, take care and enjoy your Friday.

January 23, 2023February 8, 2023

Winter Storm Round Two Tuesday Evening

Ready for round two? Here is the latest forecast for tomorrow’s Blue Springs Weather and Jackson County and its impact. Here is the breakdown.

Forecast

6 am Tuesday, System arrives with rain and temperature at 38 degrees.
11 pm Tuesday Rain shifts to snow. Some snow may be heavy.
The system leaves the area by 7 am Wednesday.

Liquid precipitation amounts are not much and look to be about 0.26 inches of precipitation.

Snow amounts for the HRRR models are a little over 1 inch for Jackson County and the Blue Springs area. The Weather Prediction Center shows a 10 to 40% chance of snow accumulations of 4 inches and higher. Don’t hold your breath. There is a 50-60% chance of snow accumulations of 2 inches or greater; for 1 inch or greater, we are at an 80-90% chance. So with those numbers, we are guaranteed 1 inch of snow and maybe a little more. I am sure these models will change again by tomorrow, and if they do, I will reach out again.

Conclusion

The impact will be minor to moderate, depending on the part of Jackson County you live in. The Downtown area is moderate.

That is pretty much it for today.