Category: Weather Discussion

Posted on

October 27th 2019 Forecast

Good morning Blue Springs! Happy Sunday.Heavy dew on the rain gauge this morning. We had the fireplace cleaned out and the chimney checked over yesterday. Change my wife’s oil. Got the generator out and tested it, added some fuel stabilizer to the fuel. Put up a few Halloween decorations. Though I think they will be buried in the snow on the 31st. We may end up with candy left over, if we ever get any trick-or-treaters. It is going to be a very cold day on the 31st.

CURRENT TEMPERATURE

Current temperature 40.8°. We had a high of 58 and a low of 35.8 over the past 24 hours. Barometric pressure is 1009 and Rising. Relative humidity 99%. Winds are at 0 gusting to 2 out of the south-southwest. Dew point temperature 38°. Feels like 36°. No precipitation to report.

FORECAST

Today, temperatures will be in the upper 50s. Chance of precipitation 3%. Dew point temperature in the low 40s. Skies will be clear.

Tonight, temperatures in the low 40s. Chance of precipitation 17%. Dew point temperature in the low 40s to upper 30s. Skies will shift to mostly cloudy to cloudy.

Monday, temperatures in the low 40s. Chance of precipitation 33%. Dew point temperature low 30s. Skies will be cloudy.

Monday night, temperatures in the upper 20s. Chance of precipitation 52%. Possible rain snow mix. Dew point temperature in the low 30s. Skies will be mostly cloudy shifting to partly cloudy by morning.

Tuesday, temperatures in the low 40s. Chance of precipitation 16%. Dew point temperature in the upper 20s. Skies will be mostly clear to partly cloudy.

Tuesday evening, temperatures in the low 30s. Chance of precipitation 49%. Dew point temperature in the low 30s. Skies will be cloudy.

MODEL DISCUSSION

Lots of things going on in the models this coming week. Starting with tonight we have a small system that will be coming in by about 9pm bringing some Trace rain, increasing throughout the day Monday and into Tuesday morning. There could be a possible rain snow mix around 10pm Monday. The entire system should end by about 4am Tuesday morning. Another system kicks back up about 1am Wednesday morning, with a possible mix of rain and snow starting off. Then a bout of ice at about 10pm Wednesday night then shifting over to snow throughout the day Halloween. It also looks like temperatures will not reach above upper thirties throughout the day. Temperatures really start to tank as the sun goes down, with temperatures dipping to the low 20s. Snow accumulations are still pretty weird and I don’t trust them. Once again they are showing 6 to 7 inches of snow in our area. It is still really too far out anyways. models are staying pretty consistent that we are going to get some snow.

I would at least have some calcium chloride and your snow shovel and or snowblower ready and easily accessed. If you have a fireplace make sure you got plenty of wood, because it looks like we will be in winter temperatures sooner than expected.

have a great day of worship if that’s what you do. Enjoy your day today and be careful.

Posted on

October 26th 2019 Forecast

Good morning Blue Springs! Beautiful sky. If you go outside this morning, look to the north high in the sky you will see Orion. If you turn around to the South, look high in the sky and you will see the Big Dipper. It is chilly this morning. There is heavy dew on the rain gauge.

CURRENT CONDITIONS

Temperature is 35.4°. We had a high of 52.7 and a low of 35.4. Relative humidity 97%. Barometric pressure 1014(29.94 inches) and falling. Winds are at 0 gusting to 1 out of the south-southwest. Dew point temperature is 33°. Feels like 30°. No precipitation to report.

FORECAST

Today, temperatures in the upper 50s. Chance of rain 4%. Dew point temperature in the upper 30s. Skies will be mostly clear.

Tonight, temperatures in the low 40s. Chance of rain 0%. Dew point temperature in the low 40s. Skies will be clear.

Sunday, temperatures in the low 60s. Chance of rain 1%. Dew point temperature in the low 40s. Skies will be mostly clear.

Sunday night, temperatures in the upper 30s. Chance of raining 2%. Dew point temperature in the upper 30s. Skies will be mostly clear shifting to mostly cloudy by 1am.

Monday, temperatures in the upper 40s. Chance of rain 37%. Dew point temperature in the low 30s. Skies will be cloudy.

Monday night temperatures in the upper 20s. Chance of precipitation 50%. Dew point temperature in the low 30s. Skies will be cloudy to mostly cloudy.

MODEL DISCISSION

Current model show rain after 7pm Sunday night continuing into the morning around 7am Monday. Another round starting Monday between 7 and 10pm and rolling out by about 7am Tuesday morning. Our snow chances I’ve been pushed forward a little, with snow starting about 1 am Wednesday morning and continuing true Halloween and ending by early Friday morning. Snow amounts will be measurable. I just don’t trust the amounts that the models are talking about. Regardless I am pretty sure trick or treaters are going to be in snow boots and heavy coats and gloves. Temperatures for Halloween will be in the 20s in the evening at this time.

As for the cold front, it will arrive by 10am Monday morning. Temperatures will continue to fall throughout the week next week. By Friday morning, temperatures will be in the upper teens. Looks like average temperatures will be in the low 40s at the beginning of November as we progress into winter.

That is pretty much it for today. Enjoy your weekend. You may want to get prepared for snow by getting your shovels ready and ice melt.

Posted on

October 25th 2019 Forecast

Good morning Blue Springs and all who follow. I hope everyone had a good night sleep. We currently have some rain in areas. Just an FYI I am no longer going to put in the convective Outlook unless something comes up. I will start that back up in Spring next year.

CURRENT CONDITIONS

Temperature 40.6°. We had a high of 46.3 and a low of 40.0 over the past 24 hours. Relative humidity 88%. Barometric pressure 1026(30.30 inches) and steady. Skies are cloudy. Winds are at 0 gusting to 2 out of the south-southwest. Dew point temperature 35°. Feels like 36°.

FORECAST

Today, temperatures in the low 50s. Chance of rain 6%. Dew point temperature in the low 30s. Skies will be mostly clear to clear.

Tonight, temperatures in the upper 30s. Chance of rain 8%. Dew point temperature in the low 30s. Skies will be clear.

Saturday, temperatures in the upper 50s. Chance of rain 26%. Dew point temperature in the forties. Skies will be mostly cloudy to partly cloudy.

Saturday night temperature in the low 40s. Chance of rain 9%. Dew point temperature in the low 40s. Skies will be mostly clear.

Sunday, temperatures in the upper 50s. Chance of rain 0%. Dew point temperature in the upper 30s. Skies will be partly cloudy to mostly clear.

Sunday night, temperatures in the upper 30s. Chance of rain 3%. Dew point temperature in the 30s. Skies will be partly cloudy.

MODEL DISCUSSION

Rain should be on its way out by now, if it hasn’t already stopped. Looks like the snow was still hanging on. It should start moving in by 10pm Sunday in the form of rain. It will continue throughout the day Monday. Snow is shifted by about 1pm. Accumulations at this time are over an inch. Models are predicting 1.4 to 1.8 inches of snow.

Monday and Tuesday will be heavy coat weather as temperatures will continue to drop Monday morning at 7am into the low 20s by 7am Tuesday.

Halloween night will be a cold one as well. Temperatures will be in the upper 30s and dropping by 7pm on Thursday.

That’s pretty much it for today. I will continue to keep an eye on the models for next week’s possible snow. Have a safe trip to work and back and may God bless you.

Posted on

October 24th 2019 Forecast

Good morning Blue Springs. Happy Thursday. Hope and pray everyone had a blessed evening and woke up this morning refreshed full of energy.

CURRENT CONDITIONS

Temperature is 42°. We had a high of 69 and a low of 42 over the past 24 hours. Skies are mostly cloudy. No precipitation report. Relative humidity 83%. Barometric pressure 1023( 30.21 inches) and rising. Winds at 2 gusting to 4 out of the north-northwest. Dew point temperature 36°. Feels like 37°.

FORECAST

Today, temperatures will struggle to get to the upper 40s. Chance of rain 17%. Dew point temperature in the low 30s by 4pm. Skies will be mostly cloudy to cloudy. Rain possible.

Tonight, temperatures in the upper 30s. Chance of rain 18%. Dew point temperature in the low 30s. Skies will be mostly cloudy to cloudy. Rain possible.

Friday, temperatures in the low 50s. Chance of rain 4%. Dew point temperature in the low 30s. Skies will be mostly clear to clear.

Friday night, temperatures in the upper 30s. Chance of rain 11%. Dew point temperature in the low 30s. Skies will be clear.

Saturday, temperatures in the upper 50s. Chance of rain 27%. Dew point temperature in the upper 30s to low 40s. Skies will be mostly clear.

Saturday night temperatures in the upper 30s. Chance of rain 15%. Dew point temperature in the low 40s. Skies will be clear.

CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

Convective Outlook shows no chance of non severe or severe thunderstorms over the next three days.

MODEL DISCUSSION

Model show rain possible after 10pm tonight, ending by 7 or 8am Friday morning. Another round of rain possible by 7am Saturday morning, Ending by 4pm that afternoon. Rain amounts for both days are less than a .10 inches over a 6 hour accumulation time frame, which tells me it’s not going to be too heavy. Sunday morning at 10am has a trace of rain possible. As for snow, there is still a possible chance around 7pm or there after on Monday evening. Snow amounts have been reduced to a Trace to even no snow at all depending on which method you use. If you have been following my page for any length of time you notice that the initial amounts were huge and then it reduces down and stabilizes to a more accurate amount. This was why we should never go crazy when the weather media says something is going to happen a week out and they say it’s going to be terrible. Always wait within a 24-hour time span and you should get a good idea of what’s going to happen. Even then, it could change at a moment’s notice. Especially in the winter time and the fall. I am not sure why, but it seems that weather changes more frequently than it does in the summer and spring.

That is about it. Have a safe trip to and from work, and enjoy your day. As always, I’m available to chat if you are having a bad day I actually enjoy talking with you all.

Posted on

October 23rd 2019 Forecast

Good morning Blue Springs! Hope this blog post finds you well.

CURRENT CONDITIONS

Temperature 46.2°. We had a high of 58.7 and a low of 42.4 over the past 24 hours. Relative humidity 71%. Barometric pressure 1011(29.85 inches) and steady. Winds are at 0 gusting to 6 out of the south-southwest. Dew point temperature 35°. Skies are clear. No precipitation to report. Feels like 40°.

FORECAST

Today, temperature in the upper 60s. Chance of rain 2%. Dew point temperature in the upper 30s the low 40s by 4pm. Skies will be mostly clear.

Tonight, temperatures in the low 40s. Chance of rain 6%. Dew point temperature low 40s. Skies will be partly cloudy 2 mostly cloudy by 4am.

Thursday, temperatures in the upper 40s. Chance of rain 28%. Dew point temperature in the low 30s. Skies will be cloudy. Rain possible.

Thursday night, temperatures in the upper 30s. Chance of rain 25%. Dew point temperature in the low 30s. Skies will be cloudy. Rain possible.

Friday, temperatures in the low 50s. Chance of rain 2%. Dew point temperature in the low 30s. Skies will be partly cloudy to mostly clear to clear by 4pm.

Friday night, temperatures in the upper 30s. Chance of rain 5%. Dew point temperature in the low 30s. Skies will be clear.

CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

Convective Outlook shows no chance of severe thunderstorms or non severe thunderstorms over the next three days.

MODEL DISCUSSION

Thursday October 24th at about noon or 1pm we have a system moving in bringing some rain. Looks like to be out of the area by Friday morning. We will find out more probably by tomorrow afternoon.

Snow is still in the forecast for Monday October 28th starting about 10pm. Snow amounts look to be one to two tenths of an inch at this time from the 4 to 5 inches that popped up a couple of days ago. Every now and then that snow prediction disappears but then comes back in the next round of forecast data.

That is pretty much it for today. Have a great day today and be safe driving to and from work.

Posted on

October 22nd 2019 Forecast

Good morning Blue Springs! Happy Tuesday. Beautiful morning this morning. Skies are clear. I stood outside for a few minutes to see if I could see any orionid meteors, but got too cold and came in. We still have snow in the forecast. It did disappear one run, but came back. Snow amounts are starting to reduce substantially.

CURRENT CONDITIONS

Temperature is 44.6°. We had a high of 56.7 and 44.2 over the past 24 hours. Relative humidity 70%. Barometric pressure 1010(29.83 inches) and steady. Winds at 4 gusting to 9 out of the Southwest. Dew point temperature 33°. Feels like 38°. Skies are clear. No precipitation to report.

FORECAST

Today, temperatures in the 60s. Chance of rain 0%. Dew point temperature in the low 30s. Skies will be clear.Tonight, temperatures in the low to mid 40s. Chance of rain 0%. Dew point temperature in the upper 30s. Skies will be clear to mostly clear.Wednesday, temperatures in the upper 60s. Chance of rain 1%. Dew point temperature in the low 40s. Skies will be mostly cloudy to partly cloudy.Wednesday night, temperatures in the low 40s. Chance of rain 6%. Dew point temperature in the low 40s to upper 30s. Skies will be mostly cloudy.Thursday, temperatures in the low 50s. Chance of rain 27%. Dew point temperature in the upper to lower 30s. Skies will be cloudy. Rain possible.Thursday night, temperatures in the low-to-mid 30s. Chance of rain 12%. Dew point temperature in the low 30s. Skies will be mostly cloudy partly cloudy by 1am.

CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

Convective Outlook shows no chance of severe or non severe thunderstorms over the next three days.

MODEL DISCUSSION

Our next system for rain will be Thursday morning possibly. Start time approximately 7am continuing through the evening till about 7am Friday morning. Not sure about rain amounts at this time. It does look like we might get a trace at this time but that may change over the next 48 hours. The snow is still in the forecast at this time. It starts off as rain and then shifts over to snow about 4am Wednesday morning October 30th. It ends about 10am Wednesday morning. Depending on which method you use for the model snow amounts equal to .9 to 1.7 inches.That is pretty much it for today. Hope you have a great day and be careful driving to and from work. Until next time!

Posted on

October 21st 2019 Forecast

Good morning Blue Springs! It is Monday. Rain has moved out. Skies are clear. Everything is wet from the system that move through. Pretty sure it was a quiet night, and just rain unless I slept through it all.

CURRENT CONDITIONS

Temperature is 49.8°. We had a high of 65.3 and a low of 42.5 over the past 24 hours. Relative humidity 99%. Barometric pressure is 997(29.44 inches) and falling. Winds are at 2 gusting to 7 out of the Southwest. Dew point temperature is 49°. We received .66 inches of rain with a pH of 8. We had 125 lightning strikes over the past 24 hours. 36 of those lightning strikes were received after midnight last night. Feels like 49°.

FORECAST

Today, temperatures in the upper 50s. Chance of rain 2%. Dew point temperature in the low 40s. Skies will be clear shifting to mostly cloudy by 1pm.Tonight, temperatures in the low 40s. Chance of rain 2%. Dew point temperature in the upper 30s shifting to the low 30s by 4am. Skies will be mostly cloudy shifting to clear by 1am Tuesday morning.Tuesday, temperatures in the low 60s. Chance of rain 0%. Dew point temperature in the low-to-mid 30s. Skies will be clear.Tuesday night, temperatures in the low 40s. Chance of rain 0%. Dew point temperature in the mid-30s. Skies will be clear.Wednesday, temperatures in the upper 60s. Chance of rain 2%. Dew point temperature in the upper 30s shifting to the low 40s by 4pm. Skies will be partly cloudy to mostly cloudy.Wednesday night, temperatures in the low 40s. Chance of rain 17%. Dew point temperature in the low 40s. Skies will be cloudy to mostly cloudy.

CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

Convective Outlook shows no chance of severe or non severe thunderstorms over the next three days.

MODEL DISCUSSION

Our next chance of weather will be on Wednesday October 23rd, but I’m thinking that it’s not going to produce anything because precipitation and simulated reflection do not match. We will have to wait until we get closer to that day to see if it’s going to do anything or not. Timeframe shows about 7am ending about 4pm. But with the inconsistencies at this time, it may be nothing. October 24th at 7 a.m. looks like a possible chance of rain, but again don’t know the details until we get to that point.Then there is October 29th into 30th, snow chances or still in that forecast. The system starts off as rain. In some areas ice, shifting to snow on the backside of the system. I would say the snow shift will start about 7am Wednesday morning.Models are still changing constantly, but our snow chances look promising for the end of October. Have a good day and be safe.

October 29th 2019 1600 hours Central
October 30th 2019 0700 hours Central

Posted on

October 20th 2019 Forecast

Good morning Blue Springs! It is a beautiful morning. Cuz I went out to check the rain gauge, I looked to the skies. Wow those stars are bright in that clear sky! If some of you don’t have anything to do, go out and purchase a cheap bag of dog food, and head out to dogtoberfest. Hundreds of dogs and their owners walking around, with neat events and vendors. My family and I try and go to it every year. You can find the details on Facebook just dogtoberfest 2019. It starts about noon.

CURRENT CONDITIONS

Current temperature is 43.7°. We had a high of 52.4 and a low of 43.6 over the past 24 hours. Relative humidity 99%. Barometric pressure 1008(29.77 inches) and steady. Winds are at 0. Dew point temperature 42°. Feels like 41°. Skies are clear. We had .21 inches of rain. Total rain for the month is 1.99 inches. We are on the track for Octobers normal of 3.16. We still have a snow normal of .02 inches to fill. We may get that before the month is over with the way things are looking in the forecast. We are currently under a dense fog advisory until 11am this morning so be careful driving.

FORECAST

Today, temperatures in the upper 60s. Chance of rain 35%. Dew point temperature in the low 50s. Skies will be partly cloudy, shifting to mostly cloudy by 4pm. Rain likely in the evening hours.

Tonight, temperatures in the upper 40s. Chance of rain 81%. Dew point temperature in the low 50s shifting to the low 40s by 4am Monday. Skies will be cloudy, shifting to partly cloudy by 4am Monday. Rain likely.

Monday, temperatures in the low 60s. Chance of rain 1%. Dew point temperature in the low 40s. Skies will be clear to partly cloudy by 4pm.

Monday night, temperatures in the low 40s. Chance of rain 1%. Dew point temperature in the low 30s. Skies will be clear.

Tuesday, temperatures in the low 60s. Chance of rain 0%. Dew point temperature in the low 30s. Skies will be clear.

Tuesday night, temperatures in the upper 40s. Chance of rain 0%. Dew point temperature in the upper 30s. Skies will be clear.

CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

Convective outlook for today has been upgraded, with a marginal chance of severe thunderstorms. Monday and Tuesday have no chance of thunderstorms, severe or non severe.

MODEL DISCUSSUSION

Looking at models today, start time for this evenings weather will be around 7pm for Jackson County and about 10pm or so for Blue Springs. Looks like it may start off as a Trace and then increase from there. In time will be about 4am Monday maybe a little after for the major part of the rain. It may missed or sprinkle after that for a short time. Thursday October 24th is going to be a very wet day. This system will start off as Trace rain by 10pm on Wednesday, then increase as the hours progress. Stop time will be around 10pm Thursday evening give or take. I’ll have more details about that as we progressed through the week. That snow I was talking about yesterday has been removed from the forecast at this time. That does not mean that it won’t come back through the models. We will just have to keep an eye on it as the days progress. As for October 30th and 31st, that too will be a wet day through the evening hours of Halloween. Snow has been removed at this time, but it is still too early to tell. Currently it shows snow in Kansas west of Johnson County.

That is pretty much it for today. Have a have a wonderful day at worship if that’s what you do, if not, enjoy your day! God bless you.

Posted on

October 19th Forecast

Good morning Blue Springs! Not sure what was going on last night. All of a sudden this page was not available under my pages manager app, but I could get to it through the web. I got up this morning and still was not able to get to it through my app on my phone. I had to actually reboot my phone just to get just page back on my app. It was the weirdest thing. Anyway, enough of that.

CURRENT CONDITIONS

Temperature is 52.2°. We had a high of 68.3 and a low of 51.9 over the past 24 hours. Relative humidity 84%. Barometric pressure 1005 and steady. Winds at 0 gusting to 4 out of the South. Dew point temperature 47°. Skies are mostly cloudy. No precipitation to report. Feels like 51°.

FORECAST

Today, temperature in the low 60s. Chance of rain 80%. Dew point temperature in the low 50s. Skies will be cloudy shifting the partly cloudy by 4pm. Rain likely.Tonight, temperatures in the mid to upper 40s. Chance of rain 80%. Dew point temperature in the upper 40s. Skies will be clear.Sunday, temperatures in the low 70s. Chance of rain 10%. Dew point temperature in the low 50s. Skies will be partly cloudy shifting 2 mostly cloudy by 4pm.Sunday night, temperatures in the upper 40s. Chance of rain 54%. Dew point temperature in the low 50s. Skies will be cloudy Shifting the partly cloudy by 4am. Rain likely.Monday, temperatures in the low 60s. Chance of rain 11%. Dew point temperature in the low 40s dropping to the upper 30s by 4pm. Skies will be partly cloudy.Monday night, temperatures in the low 40s. Chance of rain 5%. Dew point temperature in the upper 30s. Skies will be partly cloudy to mostly clear.

CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

Convective Outlook shows today and tomorrow with a Chance of non severe thunderstorms. Monday has chance of non severe or severe thunderstorms.

MODEL DISCUSSION

Looking at models, rain is currently approaching, and should be here in the next half hour or so. Rain should stop or be on its way out by about 11 this morning. The smaller system on Sunday should be here around 4 or 5pm. It should be on its way out after 1am Monday morning. Another system will be in our area on Thursday October 24th around 10am.There’s another system on Monday October 28th after noon or so. This is the system to watch. As a currently shows 4 inches of snow in our area by 7pm! It is kind of funny though, how these models are acting, the newest run shows nothing! This is one day that has peaked my interest to definately watch! Imagine snow on the ground on Halloween!

Posted on

October 18th 2019 Forecast

Good morning Blue Springs! It’s Friday! It is a mild morning this morning. Skies are clear. No precipitation to report.

CURRENT CONDITIONS

Current temperature is 49.8°. We had a high of 65.6 and a low of 39.6 over the past 24 hours. Relative humidity 88%. Dew point temperature 1009(29.80 inches) and steady. Winds are at 1 gusting to 7 out of the South. Dew point temperature 44°. Feels like 46°.

FORECAST

Today, temperature will be in the low 70s. Chance of rain 0%. Dew point temperature in the upper 40s. Skies will be clear.

Tonight, temperatures will be in the low 50s. Chance of rain 68%. Dew point temperature will be in the low 50s. Skies will be clear shifting to cloudy after 1am.

Saturday, temperatures in the upper 60s. Chance of rain 42%. Dew point temperature will be in the low 50s shifting to upper 40s by 4pm. Skies will be cloudy shifting to mostly clear by 4pm. Rain likely early morning.

Saturday night temperatures in the mid to upper 40s. Chance of rain 0%. Dew point temperature in the upper 40s. Skies will be clear.

Sunday, temperatures in the low 70s. Chance of rain 13%. Dew point temperature in the low 50s by 4pm. Skies will be partly cloudy.

Sunday night temperatures in the upper 40s. Chance of rain 40%. Dew point temperature in the Epi 40s. Skies will be mostly cloudy. Rain likely.

CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

Convective Outlook shows today and Sunday with a Chance of non severe thunderstorms. Saturday has no chance of non severe or severe thunderstorms.

MODEL DISCUSSION

Models have slightly changed as far as time frame is concerned. Start time has been pushed forward to 7am Saturday morning. Should be out of the area by 1pm. The second system will arrive about 9pm or so Sunday night. System should be out by early Monday about 1am or so. Temperatures may be just slightly above your normal seasonal temperature as this warm front passes through. Our next major system will be the morning of Thursday October 24th. The next one will be the morning of Friday November 1st.

We have a cold front moving in on the morning of Friday October 25th, where temperatures will be in the low to mid 30s. It will last through Saturday with morning temperatures in 30s. Another cold front moves in on Wednesday October 30th, with temperatures in the low 30s and highs in the upper 40s. This will last through Sunday November 3rd.

That’s pretty much it for today. Pretty uneventful.