October 8th 2019 Forecast

CURRENT CONDITIONS

Good morning Blue Springs! Another crisp morning this morning. Skies look beautiful, the stars are bright in the sky. Current temperature is 46.2°. We had a high of 71.8 and a low of 45.1. Relative humidity 93%. Barometric pressure 1018(30.06 inches) and steady. Winds are at 0. Dew point temperature at 42°. No precipitation to report. Feels like 42°.

FORECAST

Today, we will be in the low 70s. Chance of rain 0%. Dew point temperature upper 40s. Skies will be clear.

Tonight, temperatures will be in the low 50s. Chance of rain 4%. Dew point temperature will be in the upper 40s. Skies will be clear shifting to partly cloudy by 4am Wednesday morning.

Wednesday, temperatures in the low 70s. Chance of rain 11%. Dew point temperature in the upper 40s ending in low 50s by 4pm. Skies will be mostly cloudy shifting to partly cloudy by 4pm.

Wednesday night, temperatures will be in the upper 50s. Chance of rain 61%. Rain likely. Dew point temperature in the low 50s shifting to Upper 50s by 4am Thursday morning. Skies will be partly cloudy shifting to mostly cloudy.

Thursday, temperatures will be in the low-to-mid 70s. Chance of rain 71%. Rain likely. Dew point temperature increasing from the upper 50s to the low 60s by 4pm. Skies will be mostly cloudy to cloudy.

Thursday evening, temperatures will be in the mid-40s. Chance of rain 66%. Rain likely. Dew point temperature in the low 60s shifting to the low 50s by 1am Friday morning. Skies will be cloudy.

CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

Convective outlook for today shows no chance of severe weather or non severe weather. Tomorrow convective Outlook shows a chance of non severe thunderstorms. Thursday we have a marginal chance of severe thunderstorms in the Jackson County area.

MODEL DISCUSSION

Current models for Today Show a system moving in about 4pm on Wednesday. The system will continue through Thursday and Friday bringing rain. This system will bring a cold front through by Friday morning at 7am bringing the temperatures to approximately 36 degrees. This cold front will cause temperatures to struggle. High temperatures for Friday will be in the upper 40s to low 50s give or take. Saturday morning will be in the low 30s. Temperatures will reach back into the upper 50s to low 60s. Sunday morning will be in the upper 30s to low 40s by 7am. Looks like the snow is going to stay Way north of us. In fact, I wouldn’t even count on it being in our state let alone Kansas, unless something changes.

That’s pretty much it for today. Have a safe trip to work, and enjoy your day.

October 7, 2019

Monday October 7th 2019 Forecast

CURRENT CONDITIONS

Good morning Blue Springs, happy Monday. It crisp, clear, heavy dew, and fall is moving along. You can see Orion constellation high in the sky this morning. It is cold enough that you can see your breath. Current temperature is 46.9°. We had a high of 61.4 and a low of 45.1. Relative humidity is 99%. Dew point temperature is 44°. Barometric pressure is 1022(30.18 inches) and steady. Winds are at 0 gusting to 2 out of the South. We had Trace precipitation over the past 24 hours. Skies are clear. Feels like 43°.

FORECAST

Temperature today will reach into the low 70s. Chance of rain 0%. Dew point temperature will be in the low 40s. Skies will be mostly clear to clear.

Tonight, temperatures in the upper 40s. Chance of rain 0%. Dew point temperature will be in the upper 40s to low 40s by 4 a.m. Tuesday. Skies will be clear.

Tuesday, temperatures will be in the low 70s. Chance of rain 0%. Dew point temperature will be in the low to mid 40s. Skies will be clear.

Tuesday night, temperatures will be in the low 50s. Chance of rain 4%. Dew point temperature will be in the upper 40s. Skies will be mostly clear to clear.

Wednesday, temperatures in the low 70s. Chance of rain 14%. Dew point temperature in the upper 40s. Skies will be partly cloudy.

Wednesday night, temperatures in the low 60s. Chance of rain 68%. Dew point temperature in the low 50s. Skies will be partly cloudy.

CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

Convective outlook for today and tomorrow shows no severe or non-severe thunderstorms in our area. Wednesday, however, our area has a chance of non severe thunderstorms.

MODEL DISCUSSION

Looks like Wednesday will bring us another round of rain and the afternoon to evening hours. I am not really sure about a start time because both the simulated reflectivity and the precipitation accumulation on the same model are not jiving. I will get a more accurate time frame as we draw closer to Wednesday. Another round of rain will approaches early Thursday morning around 1am and continuing into the late morning at this time. Friday morning we’ll start our cold front moving in. By 7am. We will have temperatures in the upper 30s. As we progress through the weekend, Saturday morning at 7am we will be in the low 30s. Sunday will start increasing temperature back up to the upper 30s by 7am. Will dip again into the upper 30s Wednesday morning October 16th by 7am. Again on October 22nd we will be in the upper 30s by 7am.

That is pretty much it for today, enjoy your day today, be safe. We are pretty uneventful at least until Wednesday.

October 6, 2019

Sunday October 6th 2019 Forecast

CURRENT CONDITIONS

Good morning Blue Springs! Crisp morning this morning. Definitely like jacket weather at least in the morning. The only precipitation that we had was yesterday . We had 3 tenths of an inch . Some of you may have had more and various other locations since it was heavier in areas. Current temperature is 46.6°. We had a high of 69.6 and a low of 46.6 as of right now. Relative humidity is 98%. Barometric pressure is 1016(30.00 inches) and Rising. Winds are at 0. Dew point temperature is 44°. Skies are clear. Feels like 45°.

FORECAST

Today, temperature will be in the upper 60s. Chance of rain 5%. Dew point temperature in the upper 40s. Skies will be mostly cloudy by 4pm today.

Tonight, temperatures will be in the upper 40s. Chance of rain 0%. Dew point temperature in the upper 40s. Shifting to the low forties by 4am Monday morning. Skies will be clear.

Monday, temperatures will be in the low 70s. Chance of rain 0%. Dew point temperatures will be in the low 40s by 4pm. Skies will be clear.

Monday night, temperatures will be in the upper 40s. Chance of rain 0%. Dew point temperature will be in the low 40s by 4am Tuesday morning. Skies will be clear.

Tuesday temperatures will be in the low 70s. Chance of rain 0%. Dew point temperature will be in the upper 40s. Skies will be clear.

Tuesday night, temperatures will be in the low 50s. Chance of rain 6%. Dew point temperature in the upper 40s. Skies will be mostly clear to clear.

CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

Convective Outlook shows no chance of thunderstorms or severe weather over the next three days.

MODEL DISCUSSION

Looking at models, are next chance of weather will be Thursday evening October 10th. Start time looks to be about 7pm right on top of us. We’ll find out more about it as the week progresses. That system will bring in colder temperatures on Saturday morning to the upper 30s. There is a insignificant chance of Trace precipitation at around 10am today and 10am tomorrow. I would not count on it, but it is just something to know as you go about your day today.

October 5, 2019

Saturday October 5th 2019 Forecast

Good morning Blue Springs! Southside of Blue Springs receive no precipitation. Some of you have probably received some rain that ran for about 5 to 10 minutes. Currently the system that I have been talking about over the week is approaching our area. It will be a few more hours. Start time was pushed later.

CURRENT CONDITIONS

Current temperature is 57.8°. We had a high of 61 and a low of 49.3 overnight. Relative humidity is 81%. Barometric pressure is 1014(29.94 inches) and falling. Wind’s are gusting to 5 out of the east Southeast. Dew point temperature is 51°. Feels like 56°.

MODEL DISCUSSION

I’m looking at models first, because I know some of you are interested about today with your activities. Unfortunately, it looks like the start time moved up to 10 am and ending by 4 pm. Sunday has changed as well and we may end up with scattered showers throughout our county and the area. Does not look like it will amount to much. May not happen at all since the amounts are so small.

THREE DAY FORECAST

Today, temperatures will be in the low-to-mid 70s. Chance of rain 84%. Dew point temperatures will be in the low 60s. This will start to fall at 4 pm. Skies will be cloudy most of the day turning partly cloudy by 4 pm.

Tonight, temperature will be in the upper 40s give or take. Chance of rain 3%. Dew point temperature will continue to fall this evening and be in the upper 40s by 4am Sunday morning. Clouds will disappear becoming clear throughout the night.

Sunday, temperatures will be in the mid to Upper 60s. Chance of rain 5%. Dew point temperature in the upper 40s. Skies will be mostly clear shifting to mostly cloudy by 1pm roughly.

Sunday night temperatures will be in the mid-40s give or take. Chance of rain 2%. Dew point temperature will continue to fall to the low 40s by 4am Monday morning. Skies will shift from mostly cloudy to mostly clear by Monday morning.

Monday, temperatures will be in the low 70s. Chance of rain 1%. Dew point temperatures will stay in the low 40s. Skies will be clear.

Monday evening, temperatures will be in the upper 40s. Chance of rain 0%. Dew point temperature in the low 40s. Skies will be clear.

OUTLOOK

Convective Outlook shows today with a Chance of non severe thunderstorms. The next two days show no chance of thunderstorms severe or otherwise.

COLD TEMPS

Looking at temperatures ahead, Friday October 11th is something to watch has temperatures are going to be in the low 30s by 7 a.m. as a cold front moves in. Saturday October 12th around 4 a.m. we will hit a low of about 38 or so. Further on ahead on Saturday October 19th our temperature will be a low of about 37 degrees by 7 am. Those forecasts are pretty far out, so those temperatures could increase as we press forward towards those days.

Have a great day Blue Springs and all who follow. Make sure you bring a rain jacket or an umbrella.

March 4, 2019March 4, 2019

March 2 Snowmageddon Flop

What happened? What happened to the 4 to 6 inches of snow that was predicted and hyped up like it was the end of the world? What was the deal with the prediction? Where in the world did they get this prediction? I have yet to get an answer by our fearless professional weather folks. Hopefully someone from the NWS will answer this question. Where are you getting a model that is not found anywhere? Is this a wild guess based on the models or is this some sort of tactic to cause fear. I see it all the time. From this point forward I will make it my duty to compare my predictions with the predictions of the professionals whether I am right or wrong because I truly want to know why the predicted measurements were way off?

As I watched this storm and used several different resources to include the smart phone application called Windy you can see the PC version here. The next three images are what the Windy application predicted based on all 4 different models. You will noticed that ALL THREE of these models are fairly close in their predictions. So what gives?

So let’s take a look at another prediction taken from the Weather Prediction Center and the probability of snow up to 4 inches. Notice the 40% chance of precipitation up to 4 inches.

March 3rd prediction on measurements from the Weather Prediction Center.

If this model shows 2.8 inches why did the NWS predict 4-6 inches?

So these numbers from looking at the predictions and the charts and maps myself I was able to predict with fairly accurate numbers what we would get in precipitation and we ended up getting 2.75″ measuring from a white snowboard as CoCoRaHS recommends.

Hopefully a NWS professional can comment and enlighten me on the questions I have on this past weekends snow storm. Till next time!