Category: Weather Forecast

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Wednesday October 3rd 2019 Forecast

Current conditions. Temperature is 73.2°. We had a high of 87.6° and a low of 69.9°. Relative humidity 86%. Barometric pressure 1011(29.85 inches) and steady. Winds at 0 gusting to 2 out of the South Southeast. Dew point temperature 68°. Humid. Skies are cloudy. Feels like 80°.

Temperature today will be in the low 80s. Chance of rain 77%. Dew point temperature will be in the low 70s. Humid. Skies will be cloudy.

Tonight temperature will be in the low to mid 50s. Chance of rain 86%. Dew point temperature will drop from 70s to the low 50s by 4 AM. Skies will be cloudy to mostly cloudy. National Weather Service says rain amounts after 1 a.m. will be about a half an inch or a little more.

Thursday temperature will be in the upper 60s. Chance of rain 3%. Dew point temperature in the low 50s. Skies will be mostly cloudy to partly cloudy.

Thursday night temperatures will be in the low 50s. Chance of rain 3%. Dew point temperature will be in the upper 40s. Skies will be partly cloudy.

Friday temperatures will be in the upper 60s. Chance of rain 11%. Dew point temperature will be in the upper 40s. Skies will be mostly cloudy.

Friday night temperatures will be in the upper 50s to low 60s. Chance of rain 23%. Dew point temperature will be in the low 50s. Skies will be mostly cloudy.

Models currently show scattered showers starting about 9 or 10 a.m. roughly. The main system will begin between 4 p.m. and 7 p.m. or so. Models are fairly consistent with each other.

Today convective Outlook gives us a marginal chance of severe weather. With a 5% chance of high winds and large hail. Less than 2% of tornadoes. Tomorrow convective Outlook shows very Southern edge of our County with a Chance of non severe thunderstorms. Friday shows no chance of severe or non severe thunderstorms.

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Tuesday October 1 2019 Forecast

Good morning Blue Springs! Happy Tuesday. Goodbye September hello October.

Current conditions. Temperature 72.3°. We had a high of 86.7° and a low of 67.8°. Relative humidity 88%. Barometric pressure 1011(29.85 inches) and steady. Winds are at 3 winds are three gusting to 6 out of the south southwest. Dew point temperature 67°. Feels like 76°. Skies are mostly clear. No precipitation to report.

Today temperature will be in the upper 80s. Chance of rain 7%. Dew point temperature in the low 70s. Humid. Skies will be partly cloudy to mostly clear.

Tonight temperatures will be in the upper 60s. Chance of rain 51%. Dew point temperature in the upper 60s. Humid. Skies will shift to mostly cloudy.

Wednesday temperatures will be in the low 70s. Chance of rain 71%. Dew point temperature shifting from the upper 60s to low 60s by 4pm. Skies will Skies will be mostly cloudy to cloudy.

Wednesday night temperature in the mid to upper 50s. Chance off rain 72%. Dew point temperature shifting from upper 60s to upper 50s by 4am Thursday.

Thursday temperature in the upper 60s. Chance of rain 6%. Dew point temperature continues to fall from low 50s to upper 40s. Skies partly cloudy to mostly clear.

Thursday night temperature in the low 50s possibly upper 40s. Chance of rain 2%. Dew point temperature upper 40s. Skies partly cloudy.

Convective outlook. Today no chance of severe or non severe thunderstorms. Wednesday we have a mrginal chance of severe thunderstorms. Thursday no thunderstorms, severe or otherwise.

Have a beautiful Tuesday! Be blessed!

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Evening Weather September 30th 2019

Last day of September and I am loving the nice hot weather. I am a Spring/Summer type of person. I dont care for Fall or Winter. I don’t like to put on jackets and coats.

Current conditions. Temperature is 86. We had a high of 86.7° and a low of 67.8° Relative humidity 66%. Winds at 3 gusting to 14 out of the southwest. Barometric pressure is 1011(29.85) and falling. Dew point temperature 73°. Humid.

Current NAM model shows a start time of 1am Wednesday morning. Passing passing through by 7am.

The second system on Wednesday will be on top of us by 7pm. The second system will last until about 10pm.

Temperature will plummet to about 45° give or take at 10am October 3rd Thursday morning barely reaching the low 50s by 7pm. Temperature will dip even further by 1am early Friday October 4th morning, to the low 40s (43 is what the model says).

Time to break out the windbreakers, prepare the humidifiers, and break out and break out the hand lotion. Fall is on its way.

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Introduction To Operation Storm-Front

Operation Storm-front is a private research project with a goal to collect barometric pressure, temperature, dew point, and humidity data during a scheduled time of severe weather. This research project is being done in hopes to fully understand the concept behind a severe thunderstorm to help with prediction improvements.

The truth about tornadoes and advanced warnings, according to NOAA, is current warnings have only a 13 minute average lead time and a 70% false alarm rate. The tornado is hard to forecast and is still not understood and is still unpredictable.

North Blue Springs wall cloud
North Blue Springs wall cloud on 7 highway looking north.

For this research, I will be focusing on the thunderstorm and not the tornado for one reason, the tornado is the end result of a severe thunderstorm. The tornado is not the source, the thunderstorm is. If we can understand the thunderstorm, and examine the data of the severe thunderstorm, there is a good possibility we will find the missing link to tornado-genesis. If we find the missing link we will solve our problems with severe weather predictions and know what storms will be associated with tornado-genesis. It seems like people can get so focused on the result, they look past the fact that they need to switch to the source! Just like a cancer, the focus needs to be the source of the cancer not just the cancer itself! That source of the tornado can only be one thing, the severe thunderstorm.

Grain Valley storm front
Grain Valley storm front.

Operation Storm-Front research project will be conducted as time is available. Data collection from a proprietary designed device and examinations of radar displays and visual examinations of storms will be vital to this extensive research project. As data that is collected will be compared to baseline data from days that have no forecast of severe weather. The ending results and all data will be posted on this site for any and all to use for other research projects. Blog entries will be posted as data is collected and discoveries are found.

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The Importance of Weather Alerts

One type of alert to rely upon is never enough. That gives you one single point of failure. Seconds count in the event of a tornado. Tornado’s, are still to this day highly unpredictable, but have gotten better with advanced warnings. Sirens can fail, people can make a wrong judgement call behind the alert. Your phone alert can fail, your texts could never come through. You can lose power. Your cable or the television broadcast can go out.

Springfield, Mo Tornado February 2019.

A question often arises, how many services and alerts should I have? The answer is simple, as many as feasibly possible. Weather radio? Yes! Should not be an option. The basic weather radio such as the one I own that alerts on everything in your county works very well! I have had it for years and years and it has been a reliable little radio. It has battery backup as well. Just remember to change out those batteries every daylight savings time like your smoke detectors. Price Chopper carries these as well as Walmart. Some weather radios have the ability to add a flashing strobe for those that are hearing impaired as well. Other weather radios have the ability to filter out alerts you don’t want to be woken up to, such as flash flooding. I am actually eyeballing the Midland WR400 Deluxe weather radio. This radio is a combination weather/alarm clock, also has a USB charging port for your phone. This will free up space having both an alarm clock and my weather radio taking up space on my end table next to my bed.

Motorola WR-100
Midland WR400 Deluxe. Filters alerts plus it is an alarm clock.

Then there is the cell phone alerts. Here in Blue Springs we have a service put out by CJCEMA called Nixle where you receive texts to your phone. If you do not have Nixle you can sign up here.

There are plenty of weather apps for phones out there that can be used as well. One of the popular one’s I use are Wunderground and Windy which both are free. Then from a storm spotter perspective I also use a purchased app called Radar Scope (about 10 bucks) which is where the clips of radar I post on my Facebook page come from. It has a monthly subscription that gives radar scope a lot more options as well.

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Warm, Cold, Rain, Snow in The Same Week!

The past few days have been quite the interesting events. We ended up with about 8.9 inches of snowfall on Friday/Saturday this past weekend. It was a difficult prediction even for a weather enthusiast like myself, but I will have to admit that this past storm was pretty impressive! Our atmosphere was saturated with moisture and caused big fat snow to fall and to accumulate on our trees and power lines. This became a problem for us as the weight of the snow would cause tree limbs and entire trees to fall and a lot of people lost power. Some won’t have power back till Thursday. Just in time for another round of snow to accumulate in our area.

Water Vapor from 1/11/2019

Our next round of systems will be another interesting set up.


1. Tuesday will be mid to upper 40’s. but may not be able to be high enough to melt a whole lot of the snow. That is the system coming up from southwest.

2. Wednesday afternoon we have another 60% chance of precipitation and the temperature will barely be above freezing at 33 degrees. This will occur well into Thursday

3. Friday evening into Saturday is the next system. Starting off with rain at 38 degrees. The temperature will tank once this system starts and by Saturday morning at about 1am the rain will transition to snow stopping about noon or a little after. Temperatures will continue to drop throughout the weekend and by 8am Sunday will be at -4 degrees if everything plays out. Temperatures will climb back up to the 30s by Monday afternoon.

I will keep an eye on this system and the models as the week progresses and will update with any changes that may occur. If you end up going to the Chief’s game make sure you bundle up in layers to keep warm! GO CHIEFS!

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Are You Ready For A Warm Up?

Expect at a 5 to 10 degree warm up tomorrow. Clouds will be departing and offer up some sunshine. Temperatures will continue to increase and temperatures should reach back up into the the upper 40s lower 50s by the weekend. That chance of rain Thursday has gone away.
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Wintry Mix Start Possible Tonight

The more I dig into the weather for tonight and tomorrow the more I think we will get some wintry mix. As the sun disappears behind the clouds. I have decided to remove the smaller gauge out of my rain collector in anticipation for this system moving in starting off with snow. It looks to be starting off with mix, moving to rain, then the colder air moving in behind the end of this system. Blue Springs may wake up to some light icing Monday morning then warm up and then additional icing on the predawn to several hours after sunrise on New Years.

The isobars indicate some higher winds since they are closer together. That alone may cause some freezing. We are expecting up to an inch of precipitation.

I look at the numbers on my Acu-Rite 5 in 1 and it shows 38 degrees F and steady. Humidity of 59% and falling. The Barometric pressure is 1011 millibars and falling. Winds are 5 mph west north west and a windchill of 35 degrees F.

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Time to Get Back to Normal

Hope everyone enjoyed the nice 58 degree weather today. We are about to get back to our normal winter cold as the temperatures start to tank. Saturday morning may be in the single digits with the windchill, but we will be drying out. Sunday will be struggling to 40 degrees. The models show no precipitation up through the weekend.

Over the past 24 hours or so we have received 1.12 inches. It was breezy today. The most wind we received today was 22 mph.

Currently we are at 38 degrees and falling. Pressure 1002 and rising. Humidity is at 91% and rising. Winds are out of the west at 7 mph. Windchill at 31 degrees.

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Wednesday Forecast Will Bring Rain

Good morning and Merry Christmas Blue Springs! I hope this post finds you well. Last night I explained that the Wednesday forecast will be some significant weather that will bring much needed rain.  The models are are really coming together and the forecast is predicting up to an inch and a half of rain over Wednesday and Thursday which is a good thing since we have been lacking any precipitation here in beautiful Blue Springs!

Last night we had .01″ of rain and it came and went.  If you blinked you would have missed it, but at least some precipitation is better than none although a good ole fashioned white Christmas would have been great.

The window of opportunity for moderate to heavy rainfall will be Wednesday night into early Thursday. Rain should end by Thursday afternoon and start to dry back out. There is no sign of snow because of the warm temperatures. Following Thursday afternoon it will become breezy with 25-30 mph winds with temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s! It will be a beautiful day continuing through this weekend with another chance of precipitation Monday into Tuesday.