Winter Weather Update – December 19 2022

Wow. I am going to have a lot to write about today. If this system holds out, we will see some significant snow amounts. Keep in mind this is STILL TOO EARLY! So as you read this PLEASE keep that in mind and don’t run out and yell the sky is falling! This is something that I am keeping an eye on throughout the week, and as always please make sure your poke your head in on other pages. I know I do a lot of poking with them and there are certain topics that I am dogmatic about, but they still do the best that they can with a much bigger area that they cover. I only cover one county, and that is why I am so accurate. So with that lets talk about some weather. Keep in mind all that I am about to write about is subject to change very quickly.

TEMPERATURES

Thursday temperatures is going be bitterly cold. On Thursday December 22nd at 3 am the temperatures for Jackson County will be about 33 degrees. By 6 am Thursday morning we will hit 9-10 degrees. By 6 pm on Thursday we will be at -2 degrees. By 6 am on Friday December 23rd we will be at -3. By 6 pm on Friday will be at 4 degrees. See the slide show below on the time line of temperatures.

WINDS

Notice the isobars (lines), those lines being close together means it will be windy. So from Wednesday night at 9 pm till about Christmas make sure you dress in layers. Please do not allow your kids to run around in shorts. Please parent your kids. If this holds out we will see snow drifts and likely very low visibility.

SNOW AMOUNTS

Snow amounts are still up in the air, but this what we have so far. NAM shows 3 inches of snow and RAP Shows about 2 inces of snow. GFS shows about both show about 3.7 inches of snow. ECWMF shows over 6 inches of snow. Then we have the WPC which is most of the time the most accurate. Hopefully it will change, but at this time the WPC says there is a 70-90% change of snow amounts of 4 inches and greater. When you shift to snow amounts based on percentile, there is a 95% chance that all of Jackson County will have 6-8 inches of snow.

So we will just have to wait and see as we move forward. If anything changes I will let you know. MP

December 18, 2022December 18, 2022

Morning Observations / Forecast December 18 2022

Good morning. We have winter weather approaching us over the next 24 hours or so. Today’s observation as of 07:24 am shows the current temperature of 12 degrees with a pressure of 30.31 inches and steady. Winds are at zero. The relative humidity is 82%, with a dew point of 10 degrees. The air is arid. The skies are clear. I reported a trace of snow from the very light spitting of flurries yesterday with no accumulation.

Today’s Forecast is pretty uneventful. The temperature today will be a high of 37 degrees, give or take, by 3 pm. Winds will be calm today and less than ten miles per hour. Skies will clear up until about 4 pm and shift to overcast.

Here is an update on the winter weather approaching us this week. It looks like there may be two rounds of snow this week. The first round looks to arrive around 6 am for GFS, 7 am for RAP, and 9 am for NAM Monday, and it seems like straight snow with no transitions. Snow amounts show about a 50 percent chance of 1 inch or greater. Based on the WPC and the model’s accuracy, my determination is that it will be less than an inch unless something changes. The National Weather Service says 1 inch for the Blue Springs area. Some parts of Jackson County may see 1 inch of snow. The start time depends on which long-range model you look at. We will find a better accurate start time this evening as HRRR comes into view for tomorrow morning.

WPC Snow Probabilities for Jackson County and Blue Springs area.

The temperature looks to reach about 38 degrees by 3 pm Monday. So there is a good chance that the snow will be mostly melted by the end of the day on Monday if it holds out. The GFS model shows a slightly lower temperature at 34 degrees. Again, we will get a better and more accurate reading this evening. Keep watching Facebook.

December 16, 2022December 16, 2022

Morning Observations / Forecast December 16 2022

Good morning. Today’s observation as of 6:21 am shows the current temperature of 22 degrees with a pressure of 29.87 inches. Winds are out of the NW at 10 mph. Relative humidity at 67% with a dew point of 16 degrees. Skies are clear.

For today’s forcast the wind gusts will peak to about 26 knots or about 30 mph give or take by noon today.

HRRR Windgust at noon on December 16, 2022

Dress accordingly and no I am not going to post anything about wind chill or feels like temperature. It is way over rated and it is a relative “calculation”. One of these days I am going to write a post on why you should not rely on Wind Chill and Feels Like Temperatures. Believe it or knot the National Weather Service had to “modify” the formula for wind chill because it was too high. Well how does one know that a feels like temperature or a wind chill calculation is too high? I have read that there were several research articles on this particular topic that forced this to be changed. I have not been able to find those articles just yet. I have not thoroughly searched the web either. I just need to set aside some time one morning to do some searching. I know these were done before 2001 according to what I have found.

The temperature will be around 31 degrees give or take for a high today by 11am this morning so again, dress accordingly.

As for cloud cover, we will begin to shift to overcast by 11am today give or take. Temperatures will begin to drop about that time and by 10 pm, temperatures will be around 26 degrees or so and falling.

That is pretty much it for today. Not a whole lot going on. Happy Friday everyone. MP

April 17, 2022April 17, 2022

Forecast for Monday April 18, 2022

Good evening. I decided to give my website some love tonight. I have updated all the plugins and themes for the site. I hope everyone had a great day with Easter. I am sitting here on my reclining loveseat with my beautiful wife watching Reed Timmer chase down some storms in Mississippi via Facebook Live and brainstorming on ideas to help get information out in a better way.

We should be pretty much done with the rain today. Looking at tomorrow’s forecast it looks to be spring-like temperatures reaching about 53 degrees give or take by 5 pm tomorrow evening. We will start off with temperatures of about 33 degrees by 7 am in the morning. We should see some sun starting about 10 am and will continue throughout the day and well into Tuesday morning at about 9 am when another band of clouds and overcast move into the area. Winds will hit about 30 mph gusts by 1 pm tomorrow afternoon.

The HRRR shows about 53 degrees give or take by 5 pm tomorrow evening,.

HRRR Wind gusts by 1 pm about 26 knots or 30 mph.

We are pretty uneventful for tomorrow. I poked around the GFS long ranger and it does not really look like a whole lot of anything for the next 10+ days. It is pretty uneventful. It looks like we are done with the snow and ice too. Looking at temperatures it looks like we may be a pretty normal transition with a few sprinkles of cooler weather in the upper 30s to lower 40s every now and then. That is about it for tonight. Take care. Michael Pratt

November 8, 2019

November 8th 2019 Frosty Forecast

Happy Friday everyone! Jack Frost came by this morning. The grass is crunchy, and sparkled with frost. It is pretty cold outside. Skies are clear. No precipitation to report.

CURRENT CONDITIONS

Temperature is at 19.4°. We had a high of 37.0 and a low of 19.3. Relative humidity 90%. Barometric pressure 1028 (30.36 inches) and steady. Winds are at 0. Dew point temperature at 14°. Feels like 12°.

FORECAST

Today, temperatures will be in the upper 40s. Chance of precipitation 0%. Dew point temperature in the upper teens. Skies will be mostly clear to clear.

Tonight, temperatures in the upper 30s. Chance of precipitation 0%. Dew point temperature in the upper 20s. Skies will be mostly clear.

Saturday, temperatures in the low 60s. Chance of rain 0%. Dew point temperature in the upper 30s. Skies will be clear.

Saturday night, temperatures in the low 40s. Chance of precipitation 0%. Dew point temperature in the low 40s. Skies will be clear.

Sunday, temperatures will be in the low 50s. Chance of precipitation 0%. Dew point temperature in the upper 30s. Skies will be mostly clear.

Sunday night, temperatures in the upper 20s. Chance of precipitation 31%. Dew point temperature in the low 30s to low 20s. Skies will be partly cloudy to mostly cloudy.

MODEL DISCUSSION

There is still a possible chance for snow Monday. Current models do not show any sort of accumulation at this time. We will have more information as we progress into the weekend. the GFS model shows possible freezing rain as well. Other than that there is nothing past Monday. We will just have to wait and see more details by Sunday.

Have a good day everyone! Be safe.

November 6, 2019

November 6th 2019 Forecast

Good morning Blue Springs! It’s hump day! Temperature is not too bad outside. Winds are practically at a standstill. Skies are lit up with stars with a clear morning sky. I hope everyone had a good night sleep and your week has gone well. If it has not, I’m praying that God will see you through it.

CURRENT CONDITIONS

Current temperature is 38.9°. We had a high of 54.5 and a low of 32.7 over the past 24 hours. Relative humidity is 93%. Barometric pressure is 1019 and steady. Winds are at 1 gusting to 1 out of the East Northeast. Dew point temperature is 35°. Skies are clear. No precipitation to report. Feels like 33°.

FORECAST

Today, temperatures will be in the low 60s. Chance of precipitation 15%. Dew point temperature in the upper 40s. Skies will be mostly cloudy to partly cloudy.

Tonight, temperatures in the low 30s. Chance of precipitation 37%. Dew point temperature shifting to the upper 20s by 3am. Skies will be cloudy. Rain possible.

Thursday, temperatures in the upper 30s. Chance of precipitation 4%. Dew point temperature in the low teens. Skies will be clear.

Thursday night, temperatures in the low 20s. Chance of precipitation 0%. Dew point temperature in the upper teens. Skies will be clear.

Friday, temperatures in the low 40s. Chance of precipitation 0%. Dew point temperature in the low teens. Skies will be partly cloudy.

Friday night, temperatures in the low 30s. Chance of precipitation 0%. Dew point temperature in the upper 20s. Skies will be clear.

MODEL DISCUSSION

Current model steel show trace precipitation by 7pm this evening. Total precipitation when it is all said and done will be .02 inches give or take. The Eastern edge of Jackson County could get as much as .04 inches give or take. Models do show the possibility of freezing rain during this time frame but the accumulations are minimal and should not cause any problems. You should always lean on the side of caution and keep an eye on temperatures if you are out driving and it’s raining out. I did notice that rain switches to sleet about 35 degrees when I watched the last system that we had produce a mix.

Veterans Day weekend, if you are off on Monday like I am, it is looking like a beautiful three day weekend with no precipitation. Saturday and Sunday will be in the upper 50s to low 60s. Clear skies through Sunday. So that gives you all time to pick up all those fall leaves out of your yard. If anybody wants to pick up the leaves in my yard, feel free 😁.

Opening day for deer season looks to be wet at this time across most of Missouri. Something to prepare for if you are planning on going out that weekend.

That is pretty much it for today. Have a safe trip to work. Enjoy your hump day. Be safe driving home. Praying for you all.

November 5, 2019

November 5th 2019 Forecast

Good morning Blue Springs and all who follow. I pray that everyone had a good night sleep and a great evening last night. Skies are clear in the constellation Orion is high in the beautiful night sky.

CURRENT CONDITIONS

Temperature is 35.4. We had a high of 51.5 and a low of 35.4 over the past 24 hours. Relative humidity is 89%. Barometric pressure 1023(30.21 inches) and rising. Winds are at 0. Dew point temperature is 30°. Feels like 30°.

FORECAST

Today, temperature in the low 50s. Chance of precipitation 1%. Dew point temperature in the low 30s. Skies will be partly cloudy to mostly clear.

Tonight, temperatures in the low 40s. Chance of precipitation 0%. Dew point temperature in the upper 30s. Skies will be mostly clear to clear.

Wednesday, temperatures in e 60s. Chance of precipitation 12%. Dew point temperature in the upper 40s. Skies will be mostly clear to mostly cloudy by 3pm.

Wednesday night, temperatures in the low 30s. Chance of precipitation 51%. Dew point temperatures in the upper 40s dropping to the low 30s by 3am. Skies will be mostly cloudy to cloudy. Rain likely.

Thursday, temperatures in the upper 30s. Chance of precipitation 12%. Dew point temperature in the upper teens. Skies will be cloudy Shifting the partly cloudy to mostly clear by 3pm.

Thursday night, temperatures in the low 20s. Chance of precipitation 1%. Dew point temperature in the upper teens. Skies will be clear.

MODEL DISCUSSION

Looking at models for Wednesday at 6pm, looks like the system will start out scattered was rain and build up from there. It will continue off and on throughout Thursday. It will end about 3am early Thursday morning. The system will bring in cold dry air from the north. It will cause temperatures to struggle. Looks like eyes will be below 40 most of the day. As evening approaches, temperatures will drop Thursday into Friday. Temperatures will be as low as 24 degrees give or take. If you remember I talked about Veterans Day being possible snow and ice oh, that has since disappeared over the past couple of days. It is looking like the weekend is going to be fairly nice without any precipitation. This Saturday looks to be in the upper 50s. Lows will be in the upper 30s. Sunday’s high will be in the upper 30s. Sunday into Monday will be in the low 20s possibly into the teens. That is the only thing that we have to deal with over the weekend at this time.

That is pretty much it for today. Have a safe trip to and from work. Take care of yourselves.

November 4, 2019

November 4th 2019 Forecast

THE IMPORTANT STUFF

Good morning Blue Springs! Another weekend has gone oh, and another Monday has arrived. I am not sure why we have put this profile on Monday as being the worst day. I don’t look at it that way. Any day of the week can be just as bad. It all depends on perspective. I am thankful that I woke up today. We cannot guarantee every heartbeat of Our Lives. God knows how many heartbeats we will beat till we take our last one. The real question we need to ask ourselves is where will we go after we take our last breath. I know where I will go, do you? If you are concerned about that, please let me know. I can help you know the answer. It is a wonderful thing to understand I know where you go when you took your last breath. He gives you a peace that surpasses all understanding. The changes your perspective on life and death. Life is but a vapor. You can have purpose. You can have meaning. I can help you find that. You may think that life is great right now, but it can be better for you. You can be set free from the bondages in your life. Many people that I have talked to, and shared, and have accepted the freedom in Christ, I’ve always stated that the weight that they have been carrying for so many years, has been lifted. A person that truly cares for another person will reveal it through their words and their actions with no expectation of a return. I want you all to know I pray for you often, to and from work. I beg God daily that He would reveal himself to you, and radically change your lives just like He has changed mine. It is unfair that I keep this to myself, when I know that it is real. How much do you have to hate a person, to not share was in the love of the Lord Jesus Christ, and how he died, and rose again on the third day according to the scriptures. The greatest thing about being in a relationship with the Lord Jesus Christ, is that I didn’t have to do anything first. All I had to do was Reach Out with open hands and humility, asking Jesus to forgive me and to come into my life to save me. That alone, cause me to change my direction, my path, my heart. I was set free of all my bondages in sin and God gave me joy and peace unspeakable. He can do that for you too. Just reach out to me. Don’t wait another day. Don’t Wait Another Minute. You don’t have the promise of tomorrow oh, you don’t even have the promise of the next minute or second. As far as you know today will be your last day. I want you to spend eternity in heaven with me and the many others that have received Christ as their personal Lord and Saviour.

CURRENT CONDITIONS

It is currently cloudy. No precipitation to report. Temperature is 45.4. We had a high of 61.6 and a low of 37.9. Relative humidity 76%. Barometric pressure 1012( 29.88 inches) and steady. Winds are at 0 gusting to 6 out of the Southwest. Dew point temperature is 37°. Feels like 41°.

FORECAST

Today, temperature will be in the low 50s. Chance of precipitation 18%. Dew point temperature in the upper 30s. Skies will be cloudy.

Tonight, temperatures in the low 30s. Chance of precipitation 16%. Dew point temperature in the upper 30s to low 30s. Skies will be mostly cloudy to partly cloudy to mostly clear by morning.

Tuesday, temperatures in the mid to Upper 50s. Chance of precipitation 0%. Dew point temperature in the low 30s. Skies will be clear.

Tuesday night, temperatures in the low 40s. Chance of precipitation 2%. Dew point temperature in the upper 30s. Skies will be clear to partly cloudy.

Wednesday, temperatures in the low 60s. Chance of precipitation 11%. Dew point temperature in the upper 40s. Skies will be partly cloudy to mostly clear.

Wednesday night, temperatures in the low 30s. Chance of precipitation 41%. Dew point temperature in the low 40s to low 30s. Skies will be mostly cloudy.

MODEL DISCUSSION

I may have these times a little mixed up with the time change. Please bear with me as I try and figure this out over the next couple of times. Not sure if I should subtract 5 or 6 hours from that time.

Models for today Show rain starting at 1pm in the northern part of Jackson County, moving southward. Rain should be in the Blue Springs area by 3pm today or a little before. Rain will continue till about 6pm this evening. Rain amounts will only be a trace so more than likely it will be a drizly misty type rain.

Our next chance of precipitation will be around Wednesday evening late around 11pm. Friday November 8th around 3 p.m. could have the possibility of some flurries, but models do not show any accumulation.

As for Veterans Day it looks like we could have a dusting or a Trace by 7am Monday morning. Models have changed substantially for that day. We may be avoiding the ice according to this model, but Southern Jackson County could get a trace of ice.

That is pretty much up for today folks. I hope and pray you would consider what I talked about in the beginning of this post. This is coming from somebody who cares very much about your eternal destination, as well as getting to know you as a person. I would love to discuss more about this to you whether it is on Facebook, or some other means. May your day be a blessing today. Be careful driving to work and coming home.

November 3, 2019

November 3rd 2019 Forecast

Good morning Blue Springs! Happy Sunday! It is clear skies this morning. No precipitation to report. Hope all had a good night sleep and I hope everyone set their clocks back an hour. I really wish they would get rid of daylight savings time.

CURRENT CONDITIONS

Relative humidity 71%. Barometric pressure 1017(30.03 inches) and falling. Winds are at 5 gusting to 7 out of the west southwest. Dew point temperature is 28°. Feels like 30°. Skies are clear. No precipitation to report.

FORECAST

Today, temperatures in the upper 50s. Chance of precipitation 0%. Dew point temperature in the upper 30s. Skies will be clear becoming mostly cloudy by noon. Then shifting back to clear.

Tonight, temperatures in the low 40s. Chance of precipitation is 0%. Dew point temperature in the upper 30s to low 40s. Skies will be mostly clear to partly cloudy.

Monday, temperatures in the low 50s. Chance of precipitation 2%. Dew point temperature in the upper 30s. Skies will be partly cloudy to mostly cloudy.

Monday night, temperatures in the low 30s. Chance of precipitation 1%. Dew point temperature in the low 30s. Skies will be mostly clear.

Tuesday, temperatures in the low 50s. Chance of precipitation 1%. Dew point temperature in the low 30s. Skies will be clear.

Tuesday night, temperatures in the low 40s. Chance of precipitation 7%. Dew point temperature in the low 30s to upper 30s. Skies will be partly cloudy to mostly clear.

MODEL DISCUSSION

Models don’t show a whole lot up through Wednesday. Monday November 11th is flip-flopping. Currently model show nothing in our area, but it is around the other counties. I still will keep an eye on that day in case things change. With it being so far ahead it doesn’t surprise me that the models are doing that. Wednesday November 13th we have a fairly large system the starts out as rain throughout the entire day and into Thursday morning. Then the system shifts to ice by 7am and Snow by 4pm. This is another system that we need to keep an eye on.

That is about it for today. Enjoy your day of worship if that is what you do. May the Lord Jesus Christ speak to you and radically change your life. Be safe out there.

November 2, 2019

November 2nd 2019 Forecast

Good morning Blue Springs, I hope and pray that everyone had a good Friday evening, and that you all had a good night’s sleep. Jack Frost came and visited us last night, as we have some light frost on the grass.

CURRENT CONDITIONS

Temperature is at 35.1. We had a high of 54.1 and a low of 29.5. Relative humidity is 89%. Barometric pressure is 1024(30.24 inches) and steady. Winds are 0 gusting to 4 out of the Southwest. Dew point temperature is 30°. Skies are clear. No precipitation to report. Feels like 29°.

FORECAST

Today, temperature in the low 50s. Chance of precipitation 0%. Dew point temperature in the upper twenties. Skies will be clear.

Tonight, temperatures in the upper 30s. Chance of precipitation 0%. Dew point temperature in the upper 20s. Skies will be clear.

Sunday, temperatures in the upper 50s. Chance of precipitation 0%. Dew point temperature in the low 30s to upper 30s. Skies will be mostly clear.

Sunday night, temperatures in the low 40s. Chance of precipitation 0%. Dew point temperature in the upper 30s. Skies will be partly cloudy to mostly clear.

Monday, temperatures will be in the upper 50s. Chance of precipitation 2%. Dew point temperature in the upper 30s. Skies will be partly cloudy to mostly cloudy.

Monday night, temperatures in the upper 30s. Chance of precipitation 5%. Dew point temperature in the upper 30s. Skies will be partly cloudy to mostly cloudy.

MODEL DISCUSSION

This weekend will be beautiful, with no precipitation. Monday morning at about 4am, we may have a small bout of precipitation move in. Models right now show no signs of precipitation, but there will be some clouds hovering about that could bring some. What system should be out by 10am. Jackson County could get clipped by another small system passing through on Tuesday morning at 1am November 5th. This may not produce anything but it is just something to know. Tuesday night into Wednesday morning could bring us some precipitation in the form of rain. This system should be out by 7am Thursday morning. A larger system will be passing through on Sunday November 10th after about 2pm. Bringing rain throughout the day and evening hours. The back side of the system could bring some ice and snow around 10pm on November 11th. The system should be out before 4am Tuesday November 12th.

That’s pretty much it for today. The weekends going to be nice to be able to get the yard mowed and do whatever else. Enjoy your weekend and talk to you soon.