Tag: Weather

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October 18th 2019 Forecast

Good morning Blue Springs! It’s Friday! It is a mild morning this morning. Skies are clear. No precipitation to report.

CURRENT CONDITIONS

Current temperature is 49.8°. We had a high of 65.6 and a low of 39.6 over the past 24 hours. Relative humidity 88%. Dew point temperature 1009(29.80 inches) and steady. Winds are at 1 gusting to 7 out of the South. Dew point temperature 44°. Feels like 46°.

FORECAST

Today, temperature will be in the low 70s. Chance of rain 0%. Dew point temperature in the upper 40s. Skies will be clear.

Tonight, temperatures will be in the low 50s. Chance of rain 68%. Dew point temperature will be in the low 50s. Skies will be clear shifting to cloudy after 1am.

Saturday, temperatures in the upper 60s. Chance of rain 42%. Dew point temperature will be in the low 50s shifting to upper 40s by 4pm. Skies will be cloudy shifting to mostly clear by 4pm. Rain likely early morning.

Saturday night temperatures in the mid to upper 40s. Chance of rain 0%. Dew point temperature in the upper 40s. Skies will be clear.

Sunday, temperatures in the low 70s. Chance of rain 13%. Dew point temperature in the low 50s by 4pm. Skies will be partly cloudy.

Sunday night temperatures in the upper 40s. Chance of rain 40%. Dew point temperature in the Epi 40s. Skies will be mostly cloudy. Rain likely.

CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

Convective Outlook shows today and Sunday with a Chance of non severe thunderstorms. Saturday has no chance of non severe or severe thunderstorms.

MODEL DISCUSSION

Models have slightly changed as far as time frame is concerned. Start time has been pushed forward to 7am Saturday morning. Should be out of the area by 1pm. The second system will arrive about 9pm or so Sunday night. System should be out by early Monday about 1am or so. Temperatures may be just slightly above your normal seasonal temperature as this warm front passes through. Our next major system will be the morning of Thursday October 24th. The next one will be the morning of Friday November 1st.

We have a cold front moving in on the morning of Friday October 25th, where temperatures will be in the low to mid 30s. It will last through Saturday with morning temperatures in 30s. Another cold front moves in on Wednesday October 30th, with temperatures in the low 30s and highs in the upper 40s. This will last through Sunday November 3rd.

That’s pretty much it for today. Pretty uneventful.

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October 15th 2019 Forecast

Good morning Blue Springs! Happy Tuesday. It is a beautiful morning this morning. it is 4 weeks and 4 days till deer starts. I am 48 years old and have yet to experience this sport. I have been quail, rabbit and squirrel hunting, but never deer. I am doing that for the first time this year. Pretty excited about it. Just completed my hunter safety course yesterday, just need to get a few more things before the season starts. I am going with a coworker of mine that has hunted for years. He has about 3 and a half acres surrounded by large woods.

CURRENT CONDITIONS

Temperature is 61.7°. We had a high of 71.5 and a low of 37.1 last night. Relative humidity 90%. Barometric pressure 1008 and steady. Winds at 2 gusting to 6 out of the South. Dew point temperature of 57°. No precipitation to report. Skies are mostly cloudy. Feels like 62°.

FORECAST

Today, temperature will be in the low 60s. Chance of rain 7%. Dew point temperature falling to upper 30s. Skies will be mostly cloudy shifting to clear by 4pm.

Tonight temperatures will be in the upper 30s. Chance of rain 0%. Dew point temperature in the upper 30s. Skies will be clear to mostly clear.

Wednesday, temperatures in the upper 50s. Chance of rain 0%. Dew point temperature in the upper 30s. Skies will be partly cloudy to mostly cloudy by 10am clearing out, becoming clear by 4pm.

Wednesday night, temperatures in the low 40s. Chance of rain 0%. Dew point temperature in the upper 30s. Skies will be clear.

Thursday, temperature in the upper 60s. Chance of rain 0%. Dew point temperature in the low 40s by 4pm. Skies will be clear.

Thursday night temperatures in the low 50s. Chance of rain 0%. Dew point temperature in the low 40s. Skies will be mostly clear.

CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

Convective outlook for today shows a chance of non severe thunderstorms in our area. Wednesday and Thursday show no chance of non severe or severe thunderstorms.

MODEL DISCUSSION

Model show a possible chance of Trace rain this morning. It should move out by 2pm today. The system set for Friday evening at 10pm should be fairly small. Another larger system will be in the area early Monday morning October 21st about 1am. Some of you may be wondering about Halloween. It does show Rain in the evening hours at about 7pm. Don’t freak out too quickly, as the models can change drastically up until then. This is just something to watch as we progress through the next couple of weeks.

Tuesday morning 7am.
Saturday morning 4am.
Sunday evening into Monday morning.

That is pretty much it folks, have a great drive into work. Be careful. I will talk to you again this evening.

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October 14th 2019 Forecast

Good morning Blue Springs! Happy Columbus Day! The weekend was a great! After spending time with my Savior at worship yesterday morning, I spent the day with my wife and our grandson while our son and daughter-in-law spent the day celebrating their anniversary. We had a blast! We drove out to Kansas, to Deanna Rose children’s farmstead. We saw a bunch of farm animals. We ate kettle corn. We fed goats, chickens. We rode a horse drawn wagon. We had Taco Bell for lunch. Freddy’s for dinner. The night before my wife and I went to Liberty corn maze with our youth group. We had about 67 people total. We had a devotion, ate pizza, I got lost in the corn maze! I was so exhausted from the weekend, I went to bed at 8:30 last night. It was a good exhaustion though. Got my first QC report from the National Weather Service from September’s weather reports, and there was no problems with any of the reports. It is now on its way up to the Climate Center to be archived and a final QC.

CURRENT WEATHER

Skies are clear, no precipitation report. There’s heavy dew on the rain gauge. Temperature is 38.0°. We had a high of 64.7 and a low of 37.5. Relative humidity is 96%. Barometric pressure is 1014(29.94 inches) and steady. Winds are at 0. Dew point temperature 34°. Feels like 32°.

FORECAST

Today, temperature will be in the low 70s. Chance of rain 0%. Dew point temperature in the upper 40s. Skies will be clear.

Tonight temperatures will be in the low 50s. Chance of rain 11%. Dew point temperature will be in the upper 50s. Skies will be clear to mostly cloudy to cloudy.

Tuesday, temperatures in the low 60s. Chance of rain 13%. Dew point temperature dropping to the upper 30s by 4pm. Skies will shift from partly cloudy to mostly clear to clear. Rain possible, but not likely. Time frame about 4pm or so.

Tuesday night, temperatures in the upper 30s. Chance of rain 0%. Dew point temperature in the low 30s. Skies will be clear.

Wednesday, temperatures in the mid to Upper 50s. Chance of rain 0%. Dew point temperature in the upper 30s. Skies will be clear.

Wednesday night temperatures in the low 40s. Chance of rain 0%. Dew point temperature in the upper 30s. Skies will be clear.

CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

Convective Outlook for today shows no chance of severe or non severe thunderstorms. Tomorrow shows a chance of non severe thunderstorms. Wednesday shows no chance of severe or non severe thunderstorms.

MODEL DISCUSSION

Models today are all over the place and inconsistent. Two out of the three models that I look at, show no possibility of rain for Tuesday. The third one still shows rain on Tuesday afternoon about 4pm. Friday evening about 10pm give or take is our next major rain event. It will last till about 10am Saturday morning, but won’t have a significant amount. Another larger system will be upon us on Sunday morning early. It will continue into Monday morning October 21st. We’ll have more details as we draw closer to these particular days. Right now it’s just too far to get granular in the details.

Tuesday afternoon.
Friday evening into Saturday morning.
Sunday morning.

That is about it for today. If your employer gives you the day off on Columbus Day like mine, enjoy your day. If not, for those of you that are driving to work, be careful.

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October 14th 2019 Forecast

Good morning Blue Springs! Happy Columbus Day! The weekend was a great! After spending time with my Savior at worship yesterday morning, I spent the day with my wife and our grandson while our son and daughter-in-law spent the day celebrating their anniversary. We had a blast! We drove out to Kansas, to Deanna Rose children’s farmstead. We saw a bunch of farm animals. We ate kettle corn. We fed goats, chickens. We rode a horse drawn wagon. We had Taco Bell for lunch. Freddy’s for dinner. The night before my wife and I went to Liberty corn maze with our youth group. We had about 67 people total. We had a devotion, ate pizza, I got lost in the corn maze! I was so exhausted from the weekend, I went to bed at 8:30 last night. It was a good exhaustion though. Got my first QC report from the National Weather Service from September’s weather reports, and there was no problems with any of the reports. It is now on its way up to the Climate Center to be archived and a final QC.

CURRENT WEATHER

Skies are clear, no precipitation report. There’s heavy dew on the rain gauge. Temperature is 38.0°. We had a high of 64.7 and a low of 37.5. Relative humidity is 96%. Barometric pressure is 1014(29.94 inches) and steady. Winds are at 0. Dew point temperature 34°. Feels like 32°.

FORECAST

Today, temperature will be in the low 70s. Chance of rain 0%. Dew point temperature in the upper 40s. Skies will be clear.

Tonight temperatures will be in the low 50s. Chance of rain 11%. Dew point temperature will be in the upper 50s. Skies will be clear to mostly cloudy to cloudy.

Tuesday, temperatures in the low 60s. Chance of rain 13%. Dew point temperature dropping to the upper 30s by 4pm. Skies will shift from partly cloudy to mostly clear to clear. Rain possible, but not likely. Time frame about 4pm or so.

Tuesday night, temperatures in the upper 30s. Chance of rain 0%. Dew point temperature in the low 30s. Skies will be clear.

Wednesday, temperatures in the mid to Upper 50s. Chance of rain 0%. Dew point temperature in the upper 30s. Skies will be clear.

Wednesday night temperatures in the low 40s. Chance of rain 0%. Dew point temperature in the upper 30s. Skies will be clear.

CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

Convective Outlook for today shows no chance of severe or non severe thunderstorms. Tomorrow shows a chance of non severe thunderstorms. Wednesday shows no chance of severe or non severe thunderstorms.

MODEL DISCUSSION

Models today are all over the place and inconsistent. Two out of the three models that I look at, show no possibility of rain for Tuesday. The third one still shows rain on Tuesday afternoon about 4pm. Friday evening about 10pm give or take is our next major rain event. It will last till about 10am Saturday morning, but won’t have a significant amount. Another larger system will be upon us on Sunday morning early. It will continue into Monday morning October 21st. We’ll have more details as we draw closer to these particular days. Right now it’s just too far to get granular in the details.

Tuesday afternoon.
Friday evening into Saturday morning.
Sunday morning.

That is about it for today. If your employer gives you the day off on Columbus Day like mine, enjoy your day. If not, for those of you that are driving to work, be careful.

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October 12th 2019 Forecast

Good morning Blue Springs, it is cold outside. Had to crank on the Heat this morning. Walked outside to check the Gage and there was frost on it. I hope everyone had quiet evening yesterday.

CURRENT WEATHER

Temperature is 33.3°. We had a high of 49.2 and a low of 30.6. Relative humidity 82%. Barometric pressure 1018(30.06 inches) and falling. Winds are at 0 gusting to 5 out of the south-southwest. Dew point temperature is 27°. Skies are clear. Feels like 26°.

FORECAST

Today, temperatures will be in the low 60s. Chance of rain 0%. Dew point temperature in the upper 30s by 4pm. Skies will be clear.

Tonight, temperatures will be in the low 40s. Chance of rain 0%. Dew point temperature will be in the upper 30s. Skies will be clear.

Sunday, temperatures will be in the upper 60s. Chance of rain 0%. Dew point temperature will be in the upper 30s. Skies will be clear.

Sunday night, temperatures will be in the low 40s. Chance of rain 0%. Dew point temperature will be in the low 40s. Skies will be clear.

Monday, temperatures in the 70s. Chance of rain 0%. Dew point temperature will be in the low 50s by 4pm. Skies will be clear.

Monday night, temperatures will be in the mid to Upper 50s. Chance of rain 15%. Dew point temperature will be in the upper 50s. Skies will be partly cloudy.

CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

Convective outlook for today and tomorrow shows no severe or non severe thunderstorms in our forecast. Monday into Tuesday shows a chance of non severe thunderstorms.

MODEL DISCUSSION

I see a small system showing up in our area about 1am Tuesday morning. It does not look like it will bring forth much rain. It looks like it may last throughout the day on Tuesday ending about 1pm. A larger system will be producing on Friday October 18th around 10am. The system will last through Saturday and into Sunday morning about 10am. As for temperatures, looks like we will have a former weekend was October 19th and 20th with temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s. Another cold front follows behind that on October 25th where temperatures will be in the low 30s again at 7am.

Not a whole lot going on this weekend weather wise. Looks like it’s going to be clear. We can get our grass mowed. It’ll be pretty nice outside to do some activities.

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October 10th 2019 Forecast

Good morning Blue Springs! Happy Thursday. It is a little wet currently. We are in a break area and the rain will be starting back up here soon hopefully after 6 a.m. because I don’t want to have to go out and measure another round of precipitation for my morning post for the National Weather Service. Don’t let this warm weather fool you, by 4pm, temperatures will drop from 69 and really start tanking after dark. It will be about 39 degrees or so by 5am Friday. Temperatures will only reach up into the upper to mid 40s. Friday evening into Saturday reaching low 30s by 7am.

CURRENT CONDITIONS

Temperature is 59.9°. We had a high of 61.8 and a low of 52.4 over the past 24 hours. Relative humidity is 99%. Barometric pressure is 1005(29.68 inches) and falling. Dew point temperature is 58 degrees. Winds are at 4 gusting to 10 out of the east Southeast. We have had 235 lightning strikes today from that system. Skies are cloudy. We have had .78 inches since yesterday. We had .25 inches yesterday. The pH was 8. Today was .53 inches with a pH of 9.

FORECAST

Today, temperature will be in the low 70s. Chance of rain 74%. Dew point temperature in the upper 60s. Skies will be mostly cloudy to cloudy.

Tonight, temperature will be in the upper 30s. Chance of rain 31%. Dew point temperature will drop to upper 30s by 4am Friday morning. Skies will shift from Cloudy to partly cloudy.

Friday, temperatures will be in the upper 40s. Chance of rain 23%. Dew point temperature will be in the upper 20s by 4pm. Skies will shift from mostly cloudy to partly cloudy to mostly clear.

Friday night, temperatures will be in the low 30s. Chance of rain 0%. Dew point temperature will be in the upper twenties. Skies will be clear.

Saturday temperatures will be in the 60s. Chance of rain 0%. Dew point temperature in the low 30s by 4pm. Skies will be clear.

Saturday night, temperatures will be in the upper 40s. Chance of rain 0%. Dew point temperature in the mid to upper 30s. Skies will be clear.

CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

Today’s convective Outlook, shows most of Jackson County under a marginal chance of severe weather. The southeast corner will be under a slight chance severe weather. Day 2 and day 3 have no chance of severe or non severe weather.

MODEL DISCUSSION

Today’s models show rain throughout the day today off and on. Systems should move out by 4pm tonight. Interesting to note, looks like Kansas make it a little bit of snow. I don’t think this system will be long-lived enough to reach into Jackson County, but it is something to watch. It is still about a day or two out. Pretty sure it will change quite a bit as we approach Friday.

That is pretty much it for today. Have a safe have a safe trip to work. You may. You may want a light jacket for tonight for tonight. Be safe driving home.

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Friday October 4th 2019 Forecast

Good morning Blue Springs. It is 51.3°. We had a 59.1 high and a 50.5 low over the past 24 hours. Skies are mostly cloudy. Trace precipitation. relative humidity 90%. Barometric pressure 1024 and steady. Dew point temperature 47°. Winds at 1 gusting to 5 out of the southeast. Feels like 48°.
Today, temperature will be in low to mid 60s. chance of rain 14%. Dew point will be in the upper 40s. Mostly cloudy.

Tonight, temperature in the upper 50s. Chance of rain 44%. Dew point temperature in the upper 40s to low 50s. Sky is mostly cloudy to cloudy.

Saturday, temperature in the low-to-mid 70s. Chance of rain 84%. Dew point temperature in the low 60s. Skies cloudy becoming mostly clear by 4 pm.

Saturday night, temperatures in the upper 40s. Chance of rain 3%. Dew point temperature in the low 50s becoming upper 40s by 4 am. Skies will be clear.

Sunday, temperatures in the upper 60s. Chance of rain 11%. Dew point temperature in the upper 40s. Skies will be mostly clear to mostly cloudy.
Sunday night, temperatures will be in the upper 40s. Chance of rain 1%. Dew point temperature in the upper 40s. Skies will be mostly clear to clear.

Convective Outlook shows a chance of non severe thunderstorms today. Tomorrow we have a marginal chance of severe weather. Sunday has no chance of thunderstorm severe or non-severe.

Model show the possibility of rain this evening anywhere between 6pm to 9pm Jackson County area. I say this because Blue Springs may or may not receive any precipitation overnight. Saturday morning is still set for a rainy start with a start time of 7 a.m. and an end time of about 1 p.m. or so. The National Weather Service predicts about a 3/10 of an inch maybe a little more. The NAM model shows a little less precipitation.

If you are out tonight you might want to consider an umbrella close by. If you have any events scheduled for Saturday morning you may want to schedule it for the afternoon. Depending on what time I wake up in the morning the depend on whether or not I will get a forecast out to you. I am involved in the Jackson County Amateur Radio Emergency Services (JCARES) group, and we will be doing a simulated terrorist attack on the Chiefs football stadium between 8am and 1pm. We will be Manning stations throughout the Jackson County area. More than likely I will be up early. I normally am. Have a great day folks and enjoy your weekend. Be safe driving to work and be safe coming home this evening.

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Wednesday October 3rd 2019 Forecast

Current conditions. Temperature is 73.2°. We had a high of 87.6° and a low of 69.9°. Relative humidity 86%. Barometric pressure 1011(29.85 inches) and steady. Winds at 0 gusting to 2 out of the South Southeast. Dew point temperature 68°. Humid. Skies are cloudy. Feels like 80°.

Temperature today will be in the low 80s. Chance of rain 77%. Dew point temperature will be in the low 70s. Humid. Skies will be cloudy.

Tonight temperature will be in the low to mid 50s. Chance of rain 86%. Dew point temperature will drop from 70s to the low 50s by 4 AM. Skies will be cloudy to mostly cloudy. National Weather Service says rain amounts after 1 a.m. will be about a half an inch or a little more.

Thursday temperature will be in the upper 60s. Chance of rain 3%. Dew point temperature in the low 50s. Skies will be mostly cloudy to partly cloudy.

Thursday night temperatures will be in the low 50s. Chance of rain 3%. Dew point temperature will be in the upper 40s. Skies will be partly cloudy.

Friday temperatures will be in the upper 60s. Chance of rain 11%. Dew point temperature will be in the upper 40s. Skies will be mostly cloudy.

Friday night temperatures will be in the upper 50s to low 60s. Chance of rain 23%. Dew point temperature will be in the low 50s. Skies will be mostly cloudy.

Models currently show scattered showers starting about 9 or 10 a.m. roughly. The main system will begin between 4 p.m. and 7 p.m. or so. Models are fairly consistent with each other.

Today convective Outlook gives us a marginal chance of severe weather. With a 5% chance of high winds and large hail. Less than 2% of tornadoes. Tomorrow convective Outlook shows very Southern edge of our County with a Chance of non severe thunderstorms. Friday shows no chance of severe or non severe thunderstorms.

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Blue Springs Weather Fall Photo Contest

This contest is strictly for fun and no cash or prizes will be given out. This contest is set up to test your talent and creativity through weather and seasonal photography for this page. This will be challenging and possibly difficult for some. I made it that way because I want to show off the beauty of our city’s natural environment and hopefully spark some creativity. One winner will be selected to have their image displayed on the banner of this Facebook page and website at https://bluespringsweather.michaeltpratt.com. Winner will receive bragging rights by being announced on my Facebook page and a blog banner for the rest of the fall season.

Rules:

Please note that ALL submissions become the property of this page and will be used in future posts. Please make sure you read through all the rules and understand them before you submit your photo so you don’t get disqualified.

  1. The photographer must be a Blue Springs resident, all others will not be accepted. One photo submission per person. Photos MUST be within the city limits of our city.
  2. Photo must not have any water marks from photography businesses or any other businesses or it will not be accepted.
  3. Must be weather related to the season, such as fall colors, leaves, rain, thunderstorms etc. No holiday themed photos they must be fall seasoned.
  4. No humans in photos, vehicles, buildings, homes or man made objects in the photographs, must be all natural. (example: Rotary park pond is man made and therefore cannot be used in a photo but the stream that runs to the pond can be used as long as the bridge is not in it.)
  5. Must be high resolution digital images unfiltered with no enhancements, cell phones photos are fine as long as they are high definition type images. Use of flash lighting is fine as well.
  6. Color or black and white photographs are fine.
  7. image format must be in JPG and less than 5 megabytes in size.
  8. Age limit is from freshman to adult.

DEADLINE will be Friday November 1st 2019 at 6pm. Winner will be announced the following week and no later than November 8th 2019.

Questions and entries may be emailed to mpratt@michaeltpratt.com.

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March 2 Snowmageddon Flop

What happened? What happened to the 4 to 6 inches of snow that was predicted and hyped up like it was the end of the world? What was the deal with the prediction? Where in the world did they get this prediction? I have yet to get an answer by our fearless professional weather folks. Hopefully someone from the NWS will answer this question. Where are you getting a model that is not found anywhere? Is this a wild guess based on the models or is this some sort of tactic to cause fear. I see it all the time. From this point forward I will make it my duty to compare my predictions with the predictions of the professionals whether I am right or wrong because I truly want to know why the predicted measurements were way off?

As I watched this storm and used several different resources to include the smart phone application called Windy you can see the PC version here. The next three images are what the Windy application predicted based on all 4 different models. You will noticed that ALL THREE of these models are fairly close in their predictions. So what gives?

February 27, 2019
March 1st 2019
March 2, 2019

So let’s take a look at another prediction taken from the Weather Prediction Center and the probability of snow up to 4 inches. Notice the 40% chance of precipitation up to 4 inches.

March 2-3 probibility

March 3rd prediction on measurements from the Weather Prediction Center.

If this model shows 2.8 inches why did the NWS predict 4-6 inches?

So these numbers from looking at the predictions and the charts and maps myself I was able to predict with fairly accurate numbers what we would get in precipitation and we ended up getting 2.75″ measuring from a white snowboard as CoCoRaHS recommends.

Hopefully a NWS professional can comment and enlighten me on the questions I have on this past weekends snow storm. Till next time!