Introduction
Good morning. There seems to be a lot of talk about a winter weather forecast this weekend. Most media are dramatizing it and saying we will get a significant measurable amount. If you are new here, you will soon discover that my weather forecasts, especially the winter ones, will be significantly different and sometimes the opposite of what the media says. I have had people who do this sort of thing for a living turn around and tell me that my forecasts are wrong because of whatever atmospheric 10k dollar words they use. I always say we will have to wait and see. Once the event ended, my prediction was correct.
I will be the first to tell you that I am not always accurate, and I always tell folks to grab other sources and compare and go based on what you see. Every once in a while, I get some hecklers that try and put a bad name on my site and they share my page in other groups saying this guy is terrible don’t use him he does this, that, and the other. I smile because people begin to gravitate to my site and I end up increasing in followers and traffic and the people realize that, hey this guy is pretty accurate. Free advertising. Anyway, enough of the rambling from me. How about this Winter Weather Forecast?
Looking at the medium- and long-range models and the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) at this point, it is looking like a do n’t-hold-your-breath sort of forecast. It is still really early in the game, even though we are three days out from the event. Don’t bank on any sort of significant amounts of snowfall. In fact, I will go as far as it being a wintery mix and we would be lucky to have any accumulation.
Inconsistencies in the Winter Weather Forecast
I base my winter weather forecast on these observations and sources. There are some inconsistencies with these models. One inconsistency is comparing GFS 10-1 totals, NAM totals, and the probabilities from Winter WX model totals on the WPC. Here are the differences and below that I will put the images.
- GFS shows a significant measurable amount of 2.5 inches
- NAM shows a measurable amount of 1.4 inches
- The WPC says the chance of snow at 1 inch or greater is 30-40% and 40-50% closer to the downtown KC area.
- The other thing to consider is that we are still hovering around a solar maximum that negatively affects snow and winter weather. Why? The temperatures are higher during these periods, and at a solar minimum, the temperatures are lower. Our solar cycles are moving into a Grand Solar Minimum, which you can learn about here. A Grand Solar Minimum is multiple cycles where the sun is not as active, even during a solar maximum on those solar cycles.
I always steer towards the WPC model because that model is spot on practically every single time with winter forecasts.
One of the things that is similar is the timing. Every model shows a start time of 6 pm on Saturday evening. It also shows leaving the area by 3 am on Sunday. As we progress, I will post a short statement on social media or another blog post if it is extensive. That is about it for today.
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That is about it for today. Take care. MP