Customize Consent Preferences

We use cookies to help you navigate efficiently and perform certain functions. You will find detailed information about all cookies under each consent category below.

The cookies that are categorized as "Necessary" are stored on your browser as they are essential for enabling the basic functionalities of the site. ... 

Always Active

Necessary cookies are required to enable the basic features of this site, such as providing secure log-in or adjusting your consent preferences. These cookies do not store any personally identifiable data.

No cookies to display.

Functional cookies help perform certain functionalities like sharing the content of the website on social media platforms, collecting feedback, and other third-party features.

No cookies to display.

Analytical cookies are used to understand how visitors interact with the website. These cookies help provide information on metrics such as the number of visitors, bounce rate, traffic source, etc.

No cookies to display.

Performance cookies are used to understand and analyze the key performance indexes of the website which helps in delivering a better user experience for the visitors.

No cookies to display.

Advertisement cookies are used to provide visitors with customized advertisements based on the pages you visited previously and to analyze the effectiveness of the ad campaigns.

No cookies to display.

What to Expect: Tuesday’s Freeze Warning & Warm Wednesday Ahead

Here is the latest Tuesday Weather Forecast for Jackson County, Missouri. We will hit a low of 31° F by 7 a.m. We are under a freeze warning until 9 a.m. Tuesday morning.

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM
CDT TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 25 expected.

* WHERE...Portions of east central and northeast Kansas and central,
  north central, northwest, and west central Missouri.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other
  sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor
  plumbing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.
Tuesday Weather Forecast at 7am
HRRR Temperature for Tuesday morning at 7am CST.

The high for tomorrow will be around 61° F, give or take by 4 pm. The skies will be clear until about 4 pm. They will shift to overcast by midnight or early Wednesday morning.

The good news is that Wednesday temperatures will be 75° F by 4 pm!

Tuesday Weather Forecast at 4pm
HRRR Temperature for Wednesday at 4pm

That is pretty much it for today. MP

Monday Forecast – April 7, 2025

Good morning. Looks like we have frost on the vegetation. Hope you covered your sensitive plants. Looks like we will have a high of 55° F by 2 pm.

HRRR Temperature model April 7, 2025 at 2pm CST.

It is a little breezy today. Peak winds are at 27 kts or 31 mph by 9 am this morning. It will calm down as the day progresses.

HRRR Wind Gust mode for April 7, 2025 at 9am CST

Clear skies will dominate today. So all in all, a little cool but sunny and dry. Take care everyone. Please consider subscribing to my site. MP

Cold Nights Ahead: Blue Springs Weather April 2025

Here is the latest Blue Springs weather Forecast for April 6, 2025, over the next few days. Continue to keep those sensitive plants covered at night. Winter still holds on. Tomorrow morning, we will have a low of 38° F by 4 a.m., and on Tuesday, we will have a low of 28° F by 7 a.m.

HRRR Temperature model on April 7, 2025
HRRR Temperature model on April 7, 2025 at 4 am CST.
Blue Springs Weather HRRR Temperature model for Tuesday, April 8, 2025
HRRR Temperature model for Tuesday, April 8, 2025 at 7 am CST.

The good news is that the Climate Prediction Center shows an above-normal temperature trend next week.

Blue Springs Weather Climate Prediction Center Outlook
Climate Prediction Center Outlook for April 12-16 as of April 6, 2025

We do not have any other events going on over the next couple of days. Our next rain possibility looks to be early Wednesday morning, but it looks to be short lived. I do not see any snow events in our long range forecast. That is about it for today. Feel free to check out my other posts on my webpage. MP

Blue Springs Weather Forecast – Saturday April 5th, 2025

Good morning everyone, here is the latest Blue Springs Weather forecast. Today will be another wet day today. Rain’s beginning by about 11am. some rail may be heavy at times. Keep in mind there may areas of Jackson County, Missouri that may not see anything. This system splits the country diagonally. The good news is there is no more snow in the forecast for this weekend.

HRRR precipitation type model at 11am CST.

Temperatures today will only reach to about 44° F give or take by 3pm. Winter continues to try and hang on. Make sure you cover, or bring in your temperature sensitive plants over the next couple of days, before this evening . Tomorrow we will wake up to 33° F give or take for .Sunday and similar temperatures for about 2 or3 days. By Wednesday we will start a little warming trend. With highs of about 73° F according to the GFS model.

HRRR Temperature model at 3pm CST.
HRRR Temperature model on Sunday at 7am CST.
GFS Temperature model on Wednesday April 9, 2025 at 4pm CST.

We will start the morning off with some windy conditions by 8am. peek gusts at 32kts or 37mph. The winds will die down soon after that.

HRRR Wind Gust model at 8am CST.

As for any severe weather coming our way, it is null and void of anything over the next 3 days according to the Storm Prediction Center. In fact, there is nothing significant all the way out to the next 4-8 days.

That is about it for the Blue Springs Weather forecast. Take care. MP.

Tornado Genesis – A Scientific Report

Tornado Genesis

Overview of Tornado Genesis

Tornado genesis, or how tornadoes form, is a fascinating and complex weather phenomenon primarily studied through severe thunderstorm research. Tornadoes are violently rotating columns of air, and understanding their formation helps improve forecasts and safety measures. Research, especially from organizations like the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL), suggests that tornadoes often develop within supercells, which are rotating thunderstorms, and require specific conditions like strong wind shear and atmospheric instability.

Conditions and Processes

The conditions for tornado genesis include a combination of warm, moist air near the ground and cooler, drier air above, creating instability. Wind shear, where wind speed or direction changes with height, is crucial for rotation. Processes like vorticity stretching, where rotating air is pulled upward, seem to intensify the vortex, leading to tornado formation. Recent studies, such as those from NSSL’s TORUS project, suggest tornadoes often start near the ground and build upward, challenging earlier top-down theories.

Research and Uncertainty

While much is known, there are still gaps. For example, not all rotating thunderstorms produce tornadoes, and why some dissipate quickly is unclear. Projects like VORTEX2, involving over 100 scientists, have collected extensive data, but the field remains active with ongoing debates, such as whether tornadoes form from the bottom up or both directions simultaneously, as seen in recent arXiv papers on thermodynamics and analytical models.


Survey Note: Detailed Analysis of Tornado Genesis

Tornado genesis, the process by which tornadoes form, is a critical area of meteorological research, given the destructive potential of these violently rotating columns of air. This survey note provides a comprehensive overview, drawing from authoritative web sources to ensure accuracy and depth, suitable for a 5000-word scientific paper. The analysis covers historical research, current understanding, and ongoing controversies, with a focus on conditions, processes, and methodologies.

Background and Importance of Tornado Genesis

Tornadoes are rare but deadly, with the United States averaging about 1,200 annually, as reported by NOAA Tornadoes | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Their unpredictability poses significant challenges for forecasting, making research into genesis essential for improving warning times and saving lives. NSSL, part of NOAA, emphasizes understanding severe weather hazards, including tornadoes, to fulfill mission goals of enhancing predictions NSSL Research: Tornadoes.

Literature Review: Historical and Current Research

Historical efforts include the first VORTEX project (1995–1996), which used mobile Doppler radar for revolutionary data on tornadic storms, and VORTEX-99, operating during the F5 tornado outbreak in Oklahoma City on May 3, 1999. VORTEX2 (2009–2010), involving over 100 scientists, collected measurements around potential tornadic thunderstorms, while VORTEX-SE (2016–2018) focused on southeastern U.S. environmental factors affecting tornado intensity and structure. More recently, TORUS (2019–2020) studied supercell thunderstorms across the Great Plains to understand formation relationships NSSL Research: Tornadoes.

Academic research, such as arXiv papers, provides theoretical insights. For instance, Thermodynamic Balance in the Tornado Theory discusses how thermodynamics in a turbulent boundary layer drives vorticity stretching, leading to tornado-like flows. Another, An analytical model of tornado generation, proposes an axisymmetric vortex model with convective instability, showing upward flow maxima at specific heights and radii. These models complement observational data, highlighting the fragmented nature of knowledge, as noted in SpringerLink’s review of tornado research Tornadoes and Tornadogenesis | SpringerLink.

Methodology: Observational and Analytical Approaches

Research methodologies include field observations and numerical simulations. NSSL’s TORUS project used unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to observe near-ground features, crucial for understanding genesis, while Doppler radar, identified as key since the 1973 Tornado Vortex Signature discovery, remains a primary tool NSSL Research: Tornadoes. Case studies, such as those compiled by NSSL for WSR-88D observations, demonstrate thunderstorms with varying vortex strengths, challenging classic supercell paradigms Research Tools: Case Studies. Analytical models, like the Burgers-Rott vortex from ScienceDirect, simulate flow fields under atmospheric conditions, providing insights into instability mechanisms The investigation of a likely scenario for natural tornado genesis and evolution from an initial instability profile.

ProjectPeriodFocusKey Tools VORTEX 1995–1996 Initial data on tornadic storms Mobile Doppler radar VORTEX-99 1999 F5 outbreak in Oklahoma City, May 3, 1999 Doppler radar VORTEX2 2009–2010 Extensive measurements, over 100 scientists involved Multiple instruments VORTEX-SE 2016–2018 Southeastern U.S. environmental factors Field observations TORUS 2019–2020 Supercell thunderstorms, near-ground features UAVs, Doppler radar

This table summarizes major projects, highlighting their contributions to methodology.

Results and Discussion: Conditions and Processes

Tornado genesis requires specific atmospheric conditions, primarily instability and wind shear. Instability arises from warm, moist air near the ground and cooler, drier air above, creating upward motion. Wind shear, where wind speed or direction changes with height, supports rotation, often within supercells, which produce most tornadoes. NSSL notes nearly 20% of tornadoes come from quasi-linear convective systems (QLCS), particularly late night/early morning, adding complexity NSSL Research: Tornadoes. Processes like vorticity stretching, where rotating air is pulled upward, intensify the vortex, as seen in thermodynamic models from arXiv.

Recent findings, such as Dr. Jana Houser’s research, suggest tornadoes often form from the bottom up, with rotation concentrated near the ground and accelerating upward, contradicting earlier top-down theories Tornadogenesis | Dr. Jana Houser’s Research Page. This is supported by rapid-scan radar data showing formation in 30–90 seconds, as noted in weatherology° articles Tornadogenesis…A New Understanding | weatherology°. However, some researchers propose simultaneous top-down and bottom-up processes, reflecting ongoing debate.

Regional variations are significant, with western Canada showing more thermodynamic influence and eastern Canada stronger wind shear, as per ERA5-based studies ERA5‐Based Significant Tornado Environments in Canada Between 1980 and 2020. These differences highlight the need for tailored research approaches.Condition/ProcessDescription Instability Warm, moist air below, cool, dry air above, drives upward motion Wind Shear Changes in wind speed/direction with height, supports rotation Vorticity Stretching Rotating air pulled upward, intensifies vortex Bottom-Up Formation Rotation starts near ground, builds upward, recent evidence supports this Supercells vs. QLCS Supercells most common, QLCS accounts for nearly 20%, often nocturnal

This table outlines key conditions and processes, providing a structured overview.

Conclusion and Future Directions

The survey reveals significant progress in understanding tornado genesis, with clear roles for instability, wind shear, and vorticity stretching, particularly in supercells. However, gaps remain, such as why some rotating thunderstorms do not form tornadoes and the exact triggers for dissipation, termed tornadolysis. Future research should focus on integrating observational data with advanced models, addressing regional variations, and resolving debates on formation directionality. Projects like TORUS and ongoing arXiv studies suggest a promising path forward, but the field remains dynamic, requiring continued investment in both field work and theoretical analysis. Read more articles on my page.

Citations