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Monday Forecast – April 7, 2025

Good morning, looks like we have frost on vegetation . Hope you covered your sensitive plants. Looks like we will have a high of 55° F by 2 pm.

HRRR Temperature model April 7, 2025 at 2pm CST.

A little breezy today with peek winds at 27 kts or 31 mph by 9 am this morning, but will calm down as the day progresses.

HRRR Wind Gust mode for April 7, 2025 at 9am CST

Clear skies will dominate today. So all in all, a little cool but sunny and dry. Take care everyone. Please consider subscribing to my site. MP

Cold Nights Ahead: Blue Springs Weather April 2025

Here is the latest Blue Springs weather Forecast for April 6, 2025, over the next few days. Continue to keep those sensitive plants covered at night. Winter still holds on. Tomorrow morning, we will have a low of 38° F by 4 a.m., and on Tuesday, we will have a low of 28° F by 7 a.m.

HRRR Temperature model on April 7, 2025
HRRR Temperature model on April 7, 2025 at 4 am CST.
Blue Springs Weather HRRR Temperature model for Tuesday, April 8, 2025
HRRR Temperature model for Tuesday, April 8, 2025 at 7 am CST.

The good news is that the Climate Prediction Center shows an above-normal temperature trend next week.

Blue Springs Weather Climate Prediction Center Outlook
Climate Prediction Center Outlook for April 12-16 as of April 6, 2025

We do not have any other events going on over the next couple of days. Our next rain possibility looks to be early Wednesday morning, but it looks to be short lived. I do not see any snow events in our long range forecast. That is about it for today. Feel free to check out my other posts on my webpage. MP

Blue Springs Weather Forecast – Saturday April 5th, 2025

Good morning everyone, here is the latest Blue Springs Weather forecast. Today will be another wet day today. Rain’s beginning by about 11am. some rail may be heavy at times. Keep in mind there may areas of Jackson County, Missouri that may not see anything. This system splits the country diagonally. The good news is there is no more snow in the forecast for this weekend.

HRRR precipitation type model at 11am CST.

Temperatures today will only reach to about 44° F give or take by 3pm. Winter continues to try and hang on. Make sure you cover, or bring in your temperature sensitive plants over the next couple of days, before this evening . Tomorrow we will wake up to 33° F give or take for .Sunday and similar temperatures for about 2 or3 days. By Wednesday we will start a little warming trend. With highs of about 73° F according to the GFS model.

HRRR Temperature model at 3pm CST.
HRRR Temperature model on Sunday at 7am CST.
GFS Temperature model on Wednesday April 9, 2025 at 4pm CST.

We will start the morning off with some windy conditions by 8am. peek gusts at 32kts or 37mph. The winds will die down soon after that.

HRRR Wind Gust model at 8am CST.

As for any severe weather coming our way, it is null and void of anything over the next 3 days according to the Storm Prediction Center. In fact, there is nothing significant all the way out to the next 4-8 days.

That is about it for the Blue Springs Weather forecast. Take care. MP.

Tornado Genesis – A Scientific Report

Tornado Genesis

Overview of Tornado Genesis

Tornado genesis, or how tornadoes form, is a fascinating and complex weather phenomenon primarily studied through severe thunderstorm research. Tornadoes are violently rotating columns of air, and understanding their formation helps improve forecasts and safety measures. Research, especially from organizations like the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL), suggests that tornadoes often develop within supercells, which are rotating thunderstorms, and require specific conditions like strong wind shear and atmospheric instability.

Conditions and Processes

The conditions for tornado genesis include a combination of warm, moist air near the ground and cooler, drier air above, creating instability. Wind shear, where wind speed or direction changes with height, is crucial for rotation. Processes like vorticity stretching, where rotating air is pulled upward, seem to intensify the vortex, leading to tornado formation. Recent studies, such as those from NSSL’s TORUS project, suggest tornadoes often start near the ground and build upward, challenging earlier top-down theories.

Research and Uncertainty

While much is known, there are still gaps. For example, not all rotating thunderstorms produce tornadoes, and why some dissipate quickly is unclear. Projects like VORTEX2, involving over 100 scientists, have collected extensive data, but the field remains active with ongoing debates, such as whether tornadoes form from the bottom up or both directions simultaneously, as seen in recent arXiv papers on thermodynamics and analytical models.


Survey Note: Detailed Analysis of Tornado Genesis

Tornado genesis, the process by which tornadoes form, is a critical area of meteorological research, given the destructive potential of these violently rotating columns of air. This survey note provides a comprehensive overview, drawing from authoritative web sources to ensure accuracy and depth, suitable for a 5000-word scientific paper. The analysis covers historical research, current understanding, and ongoing controversies, with a focus on conditions, processes, and methodologies.

Background and Importance of Tornado Genesis

Tornadoes are rare but deadly, with the United States averaging about 1,200 annually, as reported by NOAA Tornadoes | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Their unpredictability poses significant challenges for forecasting, making research into genesis essential for improving warning times and saving lives. NSSL, part of NOAA, emphasizes understanding severe weather hazards, including tornadoes, to fulfill mission goals of enhancing predictions NSSL Research: Tornadoes.

Literature Review: Historical and Current Research

Historical efforts include the first VORTEX project (1995–1996), which used mobile Doppler radar for revolutionary data on tornadic storms, and VORTEX-99, operating during the F5 tornado outbreak in Oklahoma City on May 3, 1999. VORTEX2 (2009–2010), involving over 100 scientists, collected measurements around potential tornadic thunderstorms, while VORTEX-SE (2016–2018) focused on southeastern U.S. environmental factors affecting tornado intensity and structure. More recently, TORUS (2019–2020) studied supercell thunderstorms across the Great Plains to understand formation relationships NSSL Research: Tornadoes.

Academic research, such as arXiv papers, provides theoretical insights. For instance, Thermodynamic Balance in the Tornado Theory discusses how thermodynamics in a turbulent boundary layer drives vorticity stretching, leading to tornado-like flows. Another, An analytical model of tornado generation, proposes an axisymmetric vortex model with convective instability, showing upward flow maxima at specific heights and radii. These models complement observational data, highlighting the fragmented nature of knowledge, as noted in SpringerLink’s review of tornado research Tornadoes and Tornadogenesis | SpringerLink.

Methodology: Observational and Analytical Approaches

Research methodologies include field observations and numerical simulations. NSSL’s TORUS project used unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to observe near-ground features, crucial for understanding genesis, while Doppler radar, identified as key since the 1973 Tornado Vortex Signature discovery, remains a primary tool NSSL Research: Tornadoes. Case studies, such as those compiled by NSSL for WSR-88D observations, demonstrate thunderstorms with varying vortex strengths, challenging classic supercell paradigms Research Tools: Case Studies. Analytical models, like the Burgers-Rott vortex from ScienceDirect, simulate flow fields under atmospheric conditions, providing insights into instability mechanisms The investigation of a likely scenario for natural tornado genesis and evolution from an initial instability profile.

ProjectPeriodFocusKey Tools VORTEX 1995–1996 Initial data on tornadic storms Mobile Doppler radar VORTEX-99 1999 F5 outbreak in Oklahoma City, May 3, 1999 Doppler radar VORTEX2 2009–2010 Extensive measurements, over 100 scientists involved Multiple instruments VORTEX-SE 2016–2018 Southeastern U.S. environmental factors Field observations TORUS 2019–2020 Supercell thunderstorms, near-ground features UAVs, Doppler radar

This table summarizes major projects, highlighting their contributions to methodology.

Results and Discussion: Conditions and Processes

Tornado genesis requires specific atmospheric conditions, primarily instability and wind shear. Instability arises from warm, moist air near the ground and cooler, drier air above, creating upward motion. Wind shear, where wind speed or direction changes with height, supports rotation, often within supercells, which produce most tornadoes. NSSL notes nearly 20% of tornadoes come from quasi-linear convective systems (QLCS), particularly late night/early morning, adding complexity NSSL Research: Tornadoes. Processes like vorticity stretching, where rotating air is pulled upward, intensify the vortex, as seen in thermodynamic models from arXiv.

Recent findings, such as Dr. Jana Houser’s research, suggest tornadoes often form from the bottom up, with rotation concentrated near the ground and accelerating upward, contradicting earlier top-down theories Tornadogenesis | Dr. Jana Houser’s Research Page. This is supported by rapid-scan radar data showing formation in 30–90 seconds, as noted in weatherology° articles Tornadogenesis…A New Understanding | weatherology°. However, some researchers propose simultaneous top-down and bottom-up processes, reflecting ongoing debate.

Regional variations are significant, with western Canada showing more thermodynamic influence and eastern Canada stronger wind shear, as per ERA5-based studies ERA5‐Based Significant Tornado Environments in Canada Between 1980 and 2020. These differences highlight the need for tailored research approaches.Condition/ProcessDescription Instability Warm, moist air below, cool, dry air above, drives upward motion Wind Shear Changes in wind speed/direction with height, supports rotation Vorticity Stretching Rotating air pulled upward, intensifies vortex Bottom-Up Formation Rotation starts near ground, builds upward, recent evidence supports this Supercells vs. QLCS Supercells most common, QLCS accounts for nearly 20%, often nocturnal

This table outlines key conditions and processes, providing a structured overview.

Conclusion and Future Directions

The survey reveals significant progress in understanding tornado genesis, with clear roles for instability, wind shear, and vorticity stretching, particularly in supercells. However, gaps remain, such as why some rotating thunderstorms do not form tornadoes and the exact triggers for dissipation, termed tornadolysis. Future research should focus on integrating observational data with advanced models, addressing regional variations, and resolving debates on formation directionality. Projects like TORUS and ongoing arXiv studies suggest a promising path forward, but the field remains dynamic, requiring continued investment in both field work and theoretical analysis. Read more articles on my page.

Citations

Marginal chance of severe weather Saturday into Sunday

66° F by 5 pm. The SPC still shows a marginal chance of severe weather. Storm start time looks to be around 4am Sunday morning. Strength wise it looks to be a strong thunderstorm. Models are not showing any severe level systems but cannot rule it out. Tornadoes not so much, but keep in mind, tornadoes can happen anywhere at any time and any season. MP

Severe Weather Forecast for Spring Summer 2025

Here is the latest on this year’s severe weather forecast for spring and summer of 2025. Keep in mind this forecast is subject to change.

Key Points

  • Expect above-average tornado activity in spring due to La Niña.
  • Warmer temperatures and mixed precipitation, with potential for heavy rain.
  • Severe thunderstorms likely, with risks of strong winds, hail, and flooding.

Temperature and Precipitation

Spring and summer 2025 in Jackson County, Missouri, are forecasted to be warmer than normal, influenced by La Niña conditions. Precipitation will be mixed, with some areas potentially experiencing above-average rainfall, increasing the risk of flooding, especially from tropical systems.

Tornado and Severe Weather

Due to La Niña, tornado activity is expected to be above average during spring, with a higher frequency of severe thunderstorms bringing strong winds and large hail. Summer may see continued severe weather, exacerbated by warmer temperatures.

Comprehensive Weather Analysis for Jackson County, Missouri, Spring and Summer 2025

This report provides a detailed analysis of the severe weather forecast for Jackson County, Missouri, for the spring (March to May) and summer (June to August) of 2025, based on current climate predictions, historical patterns, and regional meteorological data. The analysis incorporates insights from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), Severe Weather Europe, local news reports, and other authoritative sources, ensuring a thorough understanding of potential severe weather events.

Temperature and Precipitation Outlook

The forecast indicates that spring and summer 2025 will be warmer than normal across Jackson County, Missouri, aligning with broader trends for the southern United States under La Niña conditions. The CPC’s seasonal outlook, updated as of February 2025, suggests a higher probability of above-average temperatures, particularly in the Southern Tier, which includes Missouri. This warming trend is attributed to the influence of La Niña, which shifts weather patterns to favor warmer conditions in the south.

Precipitation forecasts are mixed, with regional variations. The CPC’s spring forecast (March to May) shows an equal-to-higher probability of above-average precipitation in parts of the eastern United States, including the Southeast, where Jackson County, Missouri, is located. However, some areas, particularly the Southwest and Southern Plains, are expected to be drier, and the Southeast may experience localized heavy rain events, especially from tropical systems. For summer, the Almanac.com’s extended forecast suggests hotter and drier conditions, with potential for tropical storms in mid-July and hurricanes in late August, which could bring significant rainfall.

Tornado Activity and Severe Thunderstorms

Tornado activity is expected to be above average during the spring months, driven by La Niña conditions. Research from the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) and NOAA Climate.gov indicates that La Niña is linked to a higher frequency of tornadoes in the southern United States, particularly in spring, due to increased moisture and instability. This is supported by historical data showing that La Niña years often see more tornado outbreaks, with the southern Plains and Southeast, including Missouri, being particularly susceptible.

Severe thunderstorms are also likely to be more frequent, especially in spring and early summer, due to warmer temperatures and increased moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. These storms can bring strong winds, large hail, and heavy rain, increasing the risk of flash flooding. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) does not provide specific seasonal tornado forecasts for individual counties, but general patterns suggest an elevated risk for Jackson County, Missouri, given its location.

Regional Specifics and Local Considerations

Jackson County, Missouri, located in the southeastern part of the state, is particularly vulnerable to severe weather due to its coastal proximity and exposure to Gulf moisture. Local news reports, such as those from the Clarion Ledger, highlight that Mississippi will be warm in spring, with readiness advised for storms and severe weather. The NWS Jackson/Mississippi office, covering the region, provides current weather updates but lacks specific long-term forecasts for 2025. However, based on regional trends, the combination of warmer temperatures, increased tornado activity, and potential hurricane landfalls suggests a heightened severe weather risk.

Supporting Data and Tables

This table is derived from CPC seasonal outlooks, Severe Weather Europe forecasts, and historical La Niña impacts, providing a structured view of expected conditions.

Methodology and Sources

The analysis began with a web search for severe weather forecasts specific to Jackson County, Missouri, for spring and summer 2025, using platforms like the National Weather Service (NWS), CPC, and local news outlets. Initial searches revealed short-term forecasts for the city of Jackson, necessitating a focus on county-level data through CPC seasonal maps and regional forecasts. Additional searches targeted tornado activity under La Niña, and local meteorological reports, ensuring a comprehensive dataset. The CPC’s seasonal outlook for March to May 2025, accessed via CPC Seasonal Outlook, and Severe Weather Europe’s article on spring 2025, found at Spring 2025 Forecast, were pivotal. Local insights were supplemented by the Clarion Ledger’s report, available at Mississippi Spring Forecast, and historical tornado data from NOAA Climate.gov at Tornadoes and La Niña.

Conclusion

The severe weather forecast for Jackson County, Missouri, for spring and summer 2025 indicates a period of heightened risk, with above-average tornado activity in spring, warmer temperatures throughout, mixed precipitation with flooding potential, and increased hurricane risk in summer. Residents should prepare for these conditions by monitoring local weather updates, ensuring emergency plans are in place, and staying informed through NWS alerts and regional forecasts.

Key Citations

Snow Is Not Over Yet

Even though we have a warming period, snow. has not left just yet. If this holds out we could see more significant snow up through March 11th. Keep in mind March still has an average snowfall of 1.7” of accumulation. #BlueSpringsWX

Weather Forecast January 21, 2025

Brrr it is -5.2° F out. It feels like -5.2° F and the wind chill is -5.2° F. For those of you that are wondering about this statement. Wind chill and feels like is calculated and unreliable. The media uses it to dramatize and play on your mind. Is it cold? Yes. Can you get frost bite? Yes. We need to respect the weather and be smart about it. It is winter an we should dress for the environment. On another note. Media uses “Polar Vortex” to make things scary. Just a 10k word for a high pressure system coming in from Canada with wind. Just change the channel if they scream dramatic words.

On another note blizzard warning along the gulf of America. A combination of Tonga eruption in 2022 a pull on our planet from the large planets and the weak sun from Grand Solar Minimum. This is just a taste as we progress through the next 10+ years or so.

High of 15° F by 4pm. No precipitation expected. Windy. Dress accordingly. Take care. MP.

How Your Own Weather Forecasts Can Help You Live A Better Life

Staying ahead of the weather game can make all the difference in our daily lives. From planning outdoor activities to preparing for severe weather conditions, having access to accurate and reliable weather forecasts is crucial. But did you know that creating your own weather forecasts can take your preparedness to the next level?

Understanding the Basics of Weather Forecasting

Weather forecasting is the application of science and technology to predict atmospheric conditions for a given location and time. By collecting quantitative data about current weather conditions, land, and ocean, meteorologists use computer-based models to project how the atmosphere will change. However, human input is still required to pick the best possible model and interpret the results.

Benefits of Creating Your Own Weather Forecasts

  1. Improved Accuracy: By understanding the local weather patterns and using data from personal weather stations, you can create forecasts that are tailored to your specific location.
  2. Enhanced Preparedness: With your own weather forecasts, you can plan ahead for severe weather conditions, such as hurricanes, floods, or heatwaves.
  3. Increased Safety: By having access to accurate and reliable weather forecasts, you can make informed decisions about outdoor activities, travel, and other plans.
  4. Better Decision-Making: Your own weather forecasts can help you make informed decisions about agriculture, construction, or other weather-dependent activities.

Tools and Resources for Creating Your Own Weather Forecasts

  1. Personal Weather Stations: Invest in a personal weather station that can provide you with real-time data on temperature, humidity, wind speed, and other weather conditions.
  2. Weather Modeling Software: Utilize weather modeling software, such as the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, to create forecasts based on your local weather data.
  3. Online Resources: Take advantage of online resources, such as weather forums and blogs, to stay up-to-date with the latest weather trends and forecasting techniques.

Conclusion

Creating your own weather forecasts can be a game-changer for individuals who want to stay ahead of the weather game. By understanding the basics of weather forecasting, utilizing the right tools and resources, and benefiting from improved accuracy and preparedness, you can take control of your weather forecasting needs. So why not give it a try? Start creating your own weather forecasts today and see the difference it can make in your life and you won’t be tied to dramatic media that elevates a minor event.

Saturday January 11, 2025 Forecast

Good morning. High temperature for today is 35° F give or take. We ended up with a trace more of snow after 6am yesterday. We ended with an official 1.5” of additional snow accumulation for South Blue Springs over the past 48 hours. My measurements are based on 6am measurements every morning.

COOP REPORT 1/11/2025 6AM.

High: 34.0° F
Low: 14.5° F
Observed: 15.4° F
Precipitation: Trace
New Snow: Trace
Total Snow: 6.4”

Skies will be dominated by clouds and you may catch the sunshine periodically. Windy today. Peaking to 31 mph by 1pm.

Precipitation is expected this evening with the possibility of a short bout of freezing rain to a mix of rain start time will be around 10 pm this evening. The good news is it looks to be short lived. It looks to end by midnight. Temperatures will be sitting at 32° F during this time. So if you are out and about, please drive carefully. Models sho none to a trace in ice accumulations.

That is about it for today. MP