Good morning. Here is the latest winter weather update. I was looking at the latest models. The start time is about 2 pm for rain, and shifts to snow by 5 pm. The Weather Prediction Center still shows a mix as this system moves through the area. The snow probability of one inch or greater has shifted to about 40-50% for the Blue Springs Area, and 60-70% of snow amounts to 1 inch and greater for Independence and Kansas City. With snow amounts of 2 inches and greater, the percentage drops substantially for all areas, so I would not count on more than an inch of accumulation, if any.
WPC Weather MapHRRR Type for winter weather update.HRRR Precipitation TypeWPC Precipitation amount probabilities
Precipitation amounts for the HRRR show too much snow. It sits at 1.8 inches of snow by 10 pm, and the NAM shows snow amounts that are way too much at 4 inches plus. The reason why I don’t subscribe to those is because of the Weather Prediction Center. Don’t hold your breath for an accumulation of 4 inches, or even one inch for that matter, for Blue Springs.
NAM Snow amounts after system passes throughHRRR Snow Amounts by 10 pm CST
The current temperature is about 26° F. The HRRR models show a high of almost 39° F, give or take, by 1 pm. After that, the temperature will begin to fall, and it looks to hover around 33° F by evening.
HRRR Temperatures
That is about it for today. If anything else changes, I will likely post it on Facebook directly. Take care. MP
Good morning. There seems to be a lot of talk about a winter weather forecast this weekend. Most media are dramatizing it and saying we will get a significant measurable amount. If you are new here, you will soon discover that my weather forecasts, especially the winter ones, will be significantly different and sometimes the opposite of what the media says. I have had people who do this sort of thing for a living turn around and tell me that my forecasts are wrong because of whatever atmospheric 10k dollar words they use. I always say we will have to wait and see. Once the event ended, my prediction was correct.
I will be the first to tell you that I am not always accurate, and I always tell folks to grab other sources and compare and go based on what you see. Every once in a while, I get some hecklers that try and put a bad name on my site and they share my page in other groups saying this guy is terrible don’t use him he does this, that, and the other. I smile because people begin to gravitate to my site and I end up increasing in followers and traffic and the people realize that, hey this guy is pretty accurate. Free advertising. Anyway, enough of the rambling from me. How about this Winter Weather Forecast?
Looking at the medium- and long-range models and the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) at this point, it is looking like a do n’t-hold-your-breath sort of forecast. It is still really early in the game, even though we are three days out from the event. Don’t bank on any sort of significant amounts of snowfall. In fact, I will go as far as it being a wintery mix and we would be lucky to have any accumulation.
Inconsistencies in the Winter Weather Forecast
I base my winter weather forecast on these observations and sources. There are some inconsistencies with these models. One inconsistency is comparing GFS 10-1 totals, NAM totals, and the probabilities from Winter WX model totals on the WPC. Here are the differences and below that I will put the images.
GFS shows a significant measurable amount of 2.5 inches
NAM shows a measurable amount of 1.4 inches
The WPC says the chance of snow at 1 inch or greater is 30-40% and 40-50% closer to the downtown KC area.
The other thing to consider is that we are still hovering around a solar maximum that negatively affects snow and winter weather. Why? The temperatures are higher during these periods, and at a solar minimum, the temperatures are lower. Our solar cycles are moving into a Grand Solar Minimum, which you can learn about here. A Grand Solar Minimum is multiple cycles where the sun is not as active, even during a solar maximum on those solar cycles.
WPC Map shows a mix for Saturday into SundayNAM Snow AmountGFS Snow AmountWPC Snow ProbabilityCurrent Sunspot image from Space Weather Live
I always steer towards the WPC model because that model is spot on practically every single time with winter forecasts.
One of the things that is similar is the timing. Every model shows a start time of 6 pm on Saturday evening. It also shows leaving the area by 3 am on Sunday. As we progress, I will post a short statement on social media or another blog post if it is extensive. That is about it for today.
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Good morning. Here is the Wednesday weather forecast for Wednesday, November 22, 2023. Models were about 3 degrees off this morning. We hit a low of 28 degrees. That said, my forecast for today will be 3 degrees lower from the reporting HRRR models on the College of Dupage site. My Atlas is about two degrees lower than the official COOP National Weather Service provided Nimbus, sitting at 26° F. Skies are clear this morning. Winds are calm.
There is not a whole lot going on for today’s forecast. It’s pretty quiet, and even the WPC shows nothing but a warm front to our west. Clear skies will dominate the day. We may shift to an overcast to mostly cloudy by about 11 am today, but it will only last about an hour.
Weather Prediction Center model for today.
As for today’s Wednesday weather forecast, we will be struggling with temperature for a possible high of 41° F (Based on the adjusted temperature).
HRRR Temperature Model for today’s weather forecast at 2 pm CST or 8 pm UTC.
Winds may become breezy around 11 am with a peak gust of 17 mph, give or take.
HRRR Winds gusts for 4 pm CST or 10 pm UTC.
That is about it for today. Take care and I hope you have your Thanksgiving prepped and ready! Please consider visiting the rest of my posts here. MP
Good morning. Here is the Tuesday weather forecast. The temperature is going to struggle to get above 40° F today. Highs will be about 43° F if it makes it. Clouds should begin to move out of the area by 1 pm today. We may see a short bout of rain by 11 am, but after that we should be done for the day.
HRRR Temperature model at 2 pm CST or 8 pm UTC.HRRR Precipitation Type for 111 CST or 5 pm UTC.
Current temperature is sitting at 39° F. Skies are cloudy. Wind speeds at 4 mph out of the northwest. We received 0.25 inches of precipitation over the past 24 hours making the total over the past 48 hours at 1.07 inches of precipitation. No lightning strikes recorded.
Good morning, here is the latest Monday weather forecast – November 20, 2023, hope your weekend was good and you got everything ready to go for Thanksgiving!
Rain will continue off and on throughout the day today and well into the evening. This system is just sitting over us and spinning. We will only reach to about 44° F by noon.
HRRR Temperature model the Monday weather forecast.
Currently we sit at 39°, with pressure at 29.91 inches of mercury. The AcuRite shows 0.48 inches of rain fall so far since midnight. We have a total of 0.76 inches of rain measured on AcuRite and 0.82 official inches of rain on the Status. Relative Humidity is at 95%. Winds at 9 mph from the NNE.
AcuRite Snapshot for current weather.
That is pretty much it for today. Take care and drive safely to work this morning. MP
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Challenges of Predicting Tornadoes:
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Sources
If you want to learn more about this fantastic phenomenon, here are some excellent resources. Keep in mind when searching for resources there is a lot of rhetoric on the web that references the phrase Cl##### Ch#### that you want to steer away from. There is a lot of fraudulent data that NOAA has contaminated to drive an agenda. They are doing a pretty good job at trying to cover this sort of thing up. You have to dig around to find these articles.
Good morning everyone. We will get to the Sunday weather forecast shortly. I woke up this morning to view the security cameras, and we had a nice-sized buck pass through the neighborhood. I am pretty sure it was lost. It likely showed up due to it being hunting season. It was right about 4 am when it showed up.
I spent Saturday cleaning out the leaf-infested gutters and unclogging the downspouts. Did not take long at all. I’m almost done with the leaves on my property. I spent several hours cleaning up the pine needles from the large tree next door. I’m not too fond of pine trees. Their needles destroy ground nutrients if you don’t clean them up. They kill any vegetation around the area and destroy the soil’s PH. It hinders grass growth, too. To get back that grass, you have to either cut down the tree and/or replace the soil with good soil and plant sod or grass seed. The best solution is to get rid of the tree. They get pine cones and needles everywhere. I had one and got rid of it. The grass still does not grow right from it. Anyway, I digress. Let’s get on with the weather.
Sunday Weather Forecast
Tonday’s weather will be wet over the next 24 hours. Models are showing we could get a decent soaking, so if you were planning on doing any yard work, you have till about 2 pm to do that. It does show rain upon us by 3 pm today. You may hear a rumble or two of thunder while this system moves through the area. The Storm Prediction Center still shows just a chance of non-severe thunderstorms, which is to be expected since we are out of our peak season. Rain amounts are looking to be somewhere around half an inch to an inch for the Jackson County area. Rain amounts are much harder to get than snow amounts. We will reach to about 63° by 1 pm.
Sunday Weather Forecast from the WPC
Current Weather
Our current temperature sits at 41° F. The barometric pressure is at 29.82 inches of mercury, humidity is at 73% Relative and skies are mostly clear since I see a few light clouds in the sky.
Space Weather
Sun activity is pretty minimal and quiet. We thought it was goung to go spotless for the first time in Solar Cycle 25, but that proved to be wrong and 3489 showed up. Looking at today’s image from Space Weather Live, we have two more sun spots that popped up ont he weatern hemisphere 2490 and 2491. That small coronal hole is slowly making its way acrossed the equator and is now passing through the eastern hemisphere. We do have an earth directed solar storm from a filliment on the 15th and should be here by Monday. We may have an increase of sunspot and solar activity.
That is pretty much it for today. Enjoy your day today.
Good morning! I was poking around the models this morning on this bright, clear, and beautiful day. Our weather forecast for Sunday afternoon will be wet and rainy. According to the HRRR models, we will have a start time of about noon tomorrow with rain. It will be about 66°, and the temperature will begin to fall as this system passes through the area. By 6 pm, the temperature will be around 52°. By midnight Sunday into Monday, it will be about 45°. The rain looks to continue off and on throughout the afternoon and well into Monday morning.
HRRR Precipitation Type at noon CST or 6 pm GMT.
Rain amounts up to midnight Monday morning show about 0.23 inches.
HRRR Precipitation totals as of midnight Monday morning.
The WPC shows that we may have some actual thunderstorms. But we are way outside the severe aspect for this, so there may be a rumble or two. The WPC looks similar to the HRRR report for rain amounts at 0.25 inches.
WPC model for Nevember 19, 2023WPC Model for QPF for November 18,2023
That is about it for our weather forecast for today. Enjoy your Saturday! You can look at my previous post here. MP
Good morning. Here is the latest Friday weather forecast for November 17, 2023. I hope all is well. We will be at a high of 53°, give or take, by 2 pm. There is no precipitation expected today. Skies will be clear to mostly clear today. Today will be your typical fall seasonal weather. We may start a little breezy this morning, but things will quickly calm down throughout the day. That is it for the Friday weather forecast.
Our current temperature is 38.3°, and the pressure is 30.1 inches of mercury. The skies are clear. Winds are calm to 5 mph out of the northwest at the moment. Pretty uneventful at the current time.
I am looking at the sunspot activity; we are getting very close to possibly seeing our first spotless sun since the last solar cycle. Spots are much more sparse than in my November 12th post about this. Solar Cycle 24. Our previous solar minimum froze over the Missouri River. According to Space Weather Live, We are down to one spot on the right side of the sun’s hemisphere. We have a small earth-facing coronal hole moving across our sun’s equator.
Suppose you are new to this site. I understand that my Facebook page and this website have a much different forecast than you are used to. I don’t believe in all the nonsense that the media has been hyping up to with all this nonsense talk about that double C word we won’t mention here. If you stick around, you will begin to see the absolute truth behind our weather and what is causing all the craziness.
That is about it for today’s post. Enjoy the rest of your day today.
Another mostly sunny to sunny day today. Temperatures reaching to about 66° give or take by 2pm CST or 8pm UTC. Pressure should start out high but it should be below 30 inches of mercury by late this afternoon.
