Tag: Blue Springs

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Tuesday January 9, 2024 – Winter Weather Update

Good morning. This Winter Weather Update is from the morning of January 6, 2024. If you are reading this a day later, it is old data and you need to go to my Facebook page or my most recent blog post if I have one.

I have been watching the models, and we may have some snow that can hinder driving and make roads slightly dangerous. The key to a safe drive is TIRES with GOOD tread! You will have issues getting around if your tires do not have good tread

Looking at the Weather Prediction Center we are looking at up to 40% change of snow accumulations at 4 inches or greater for the Jackson County area. The break down of snow amounts for Tuesday January 9, 2024 is this:

Precipitation Chances
1″ or greater of snow accumulation – 90%
2″ or greater of snow accumulation – 60%
4″ or greater of snow accumulation – 30%

Winter Weather Update for 4 inches of snow or greater from WPC
Winter Weather Update from WPC
Winter Weather Update Snow amounts from WPC
Winter Weather Update for Snow amounts

Looking at the NAM model for snow amounts is the perfect esample why I don’t like snow amounts for the usual models I use for severe weather. They are shows 5+ inches of snow and all it does is give me a good belly laugh. These are the things that the Media are going to EAT up instead of heading over to the Weather Prediction Center and getting the correct model for snow amounts.

Winter Weather Snow amounts from NAM Model

Severity will be minor according to the Severity index. But that ALL depends on your tire condition. I am sure the NWS will kick off a winter weather advisory / watch soon.

That is pretty much it for today. Stay away from the media for a bit. They are really going nuts out there with this stuff. I would go with the one that is less dramatic on their posts and television forecasts. Take care everyone and enjoy your weekend. I will keep you posted on social media or do another blog post if there are any more changes to this forecast.

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Sunday Blue Springs Weather Forecast

Here is the latest Blue Springs weather and forecast. Good morning. The weather for Blue Springs Saturday snow did not happen like it was discussed on my previous post. Enjoy the sunshine. We will shift to an overcast starting at 1 pm. Winds will be a little calmer today. We will have a peak wind gust at 18 miles per hour by 10 am.

Blue Springs Weather HRRR average cloud cover model at 1 pm CST.
Blue Springs Weather HRRR average cloud cover model at 1 pm CST.
Weather for Blue Springs Mo. HRRR Wind Gust model at 10 am CST
Blue Springs Weather HRRR Wind Gust model at 10 am CST

We are not expecting any precipitation at this time. The temperature will hit a high of 45° F.

There’s not a whole lot going on today. Enjoy your Sunday! MP

National Weather Service of Pleasent Hill

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Sunday Weather Forecast, Earthquakes, and Volcanic Eruptions

HRRR Precipitation model

Good morning. Here is the Sunday weather forecast, but first, our current weather conditions. I hope everyone has had a great weekend. We had some rain over the past 24 hours. It measured at 0.08 inches of rain. The temperature was at 32° F this morning at 6 am. It is now 30° F. Skies are cloudy, and winds are calm as I look out at the windmill in our backyard. The most breeze we have dealt with is nine miles per hour out of the WSW. Pressure is sitting at 29.91 inches of mercury.

Current Weather

Here is the latest Sunday weather forecast. I was looking at the HRRR Precipitation type. I see a small low-pressure system that will be moving through the area. It will bring some possible rain. The pressure will dip to about 29.70 inches of mercury by 8 pm this evening. We may get a few sprinkles or two in the evening, but our chances will increase by midnight tonight into Monday.

Sunday weather forecast from HRRR Precipitation Type
HRRR Precipitation Type for 2 am UTC or 8 pm CST

Sunday Weather Forecast

Our Temperature will reach a high of 46° F by 2 pm. We may get some peak throughs of sunshine, but overcast will prevail later today.

HRRR Temperature Model for Sunday's weather forecast
HRRR Temperature model at 2 pm CST or 8 pm UTC

The coronal hole is on its way to the eastern hemisphere, and so far, it has produced an earthquake in the Philippines at 7.6 and a volcanic eruption of Mount Etna in Europe.

Coronal Hole

Sunspot activity has declined since my last post about this on November 26th.

Space weather for Sunday weather forecast.
Space Weather Live Sunspot Count

Lots of exciting events have occurred from our active sun. I don’t downplay that people got hurt from a 7.6 magnitude earthquake. I prayed yesterday for quick recovery and safety in the Philippines. The sun has a tremendous impact on our planet’s environment and weather. Just like the sun is a type of Christ in the Bible, which affects our climate, God controls our temperature and environment, and it is God that provides the signs from heaven to reveal the events. That is about it. Take care. MP

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Sunday Forecast and Significant Amount of Sunspots for November 26, 2023

Good morning. Here is the Sunday Forecast, but first, the measurements and current weather. I am ready for the summer now—enough of this white stuff. I walked out to get the Stratus and get measurements. We ended with 2.4 inches of snow with a liquid equivalent of .27 inches. That makes the ratio 8.9 inches of snow to 1 inch of liquid. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) was off by about an inch. God said, “Here is a little more to grow on.” He is in control. The WPC is still a more accurate source than the snow amounts for others.

The current temperature is 25° F. Skies are mostly cloudy, and winds are three miles per hour out of the northwest. The relative humidity is at 92%. The barometric pressure is at 29.83 inches of mercury. The radar is pretty clear, and the atmosphere is pretty dry now.

Radar
Radar
Water Vapor Loop for Sunday Forecast
Water Vapor Loop

Here is the Sunday Forecast for today. We will hit a high of 36° F, give or take, by 3 pm. It will be a bit breezy today, with wind gusts peaking at about 27-28 miles per hour by noon today. Winds should begin to calm down at about 6 pm tonight.

HRRR model for the Sunday forecast.
Temperature
Wind gust model for Sunday Forecast
Wind Gust

Lots of activity on the sun’s surface. There are still lots of sunspots. The sun is trying to hold on to that solar maximum before it goes back to sleep and becomes dormant again.

That is all I have to talk about today. Take care. MP

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Winter Weather Update | How much snow will we get?

Winter weather update from WPC map

Good morning. Here is the latest winter weather update. I was looking at the latest models. The start time is about 2 pm for rain, and shifts to snow by 5 pm. The Weather Prediction Center still shows a mix as this system moves through the area. The snow probability of one inch or greater has shifted to about 40-50% for the Blue Springs Area, and 60-70% of snow amounts to 1 inch and greater for Independence and Kansas City. With snow amounts of 2 inches and greater, the percentage drops substantially for all areas, so I would not count on more than an inch of accumulation, if any.

WPC Weather Map
WPC Weather Map
Winter weather update from HRRR Type
HRRR Type for winter weather update.
HRRR Precipitation Type
HRRR Precipitation Type
WPC Precipitation accumulation probabilities.
WPC Precipitation amount probabilities

Precipitation amounts for the HRRR show too much snow. It sits at 1.8 inches of snow by 10 pm, and the NAM shows snow amounts that are way too much at 4 inches plus. The reason why I don’t subscribe to those is because of the Weather Prediction Center. Don’t hold your breath for an accumulation of 4 inches, or even one inch for that matter, for Blue Springs.

NAM Snow amounts after system passes through
HRRR Snow Amounts by 10 pm CST

The current temperature is about 26° F. The HRRR models show a high of almost 39° F, give or take, by 1 pm. After that, the temperature will begin to fall, and it looks to hover around 33° F by evening.

HRRR Temps
HRRR Temperatures

That is about it for today. If anything else changes, I will likely post it on Facebook directly. Take care. MP

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Wednesday Weather Forecast – November 22, 2023

Good morning. Here is the Wednesday weather forecast for Wednesday, November 22, 2023. Models were about 3 degrees off this morning. We hit a low of 28 degrees. That said, my forecast for today will be 3 degrees lower from the reporting HRRR models on the College of Dupage site. My Atlas is about two degrees lower than the official COOP National Weather Service provided Nimbus, sitting at 26° F. Skies are clear this morning. Winds are calm.

There is not a whole lot going on for today’s forecast. It’s pretty quiet, and even the WPC shows nothing but a warm front to our west. Clear skies will dominate the day. We may shift to an overcast to mostly cloudy by about 11 am today, but it will only last about an hour.

WPC model for the Wednesday weather forecast
Weather Prediction Center model for today.

As for today’s Wednesday weather forecast, we will be struggling with temperature for a possible high of 41° F (Based on the adjusted temperature).

HRRR model for Temperature.
HRRR Temperature Model for today’s weather forecast at 2 pm CST or 8 pm UTC.

Winds may become breezy around 11 am with a peak gust of 17 mph, give or take.

HRRR Wind Gust model
HRRR Winds gusts for 4 pm CST or 10 pm UTC.

That is about it for today. Take care and I hope you have your Thanksgiving prepped and ready! Please consider visiting the rest of my posts here. MP

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Tuesday Weather Forecast – November 21, 2023

HRRR Precipitation Type

Good morning. Here is the Tuesday weather forecast. The temperature is going to struggle to get above 40° F today. Highs will be about 43° F if it makes it. Clouds should begin to move out of the area by 1 pm today. We may see a short bout of rain by 11 am, but after that we should be done for the day.

The Temperature for uesday weather forecast
HRRR Temperature model at 2 pm CST or 8 pm UTC.
HRRR Precipitation Type for 111 CST or 5 pm UTC.

Current temperature is sitting at 39° F. Skies are cloudy. Wind speeds at 4 mph out of the northwest. We received 0.25 inches of precipitation over the past 24 hours making the total over the past 48 hours at 1.07 inches of precipitation. No lightning strikes recorded.

That is about it for today. Take care. MP

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Monday Weather Forecast – November 20, 2023

Good morning, here is the latest Monday weather forecast – November 20, 2023, hope your weekend was good and you got everything ready to go for Thanksgiving!

Rain will continue off and on throughout the day today and well into the evening. This system is just sitting over us and spinning. We will only reach to about 44° F by noon.

HRRR Temperature model the Monday weather forecast.
HRRR Temperature model the Monday weather forecast.

Currently we sit at 39°, with pressure at 29.91 inches of mercury. The AcuRite shows 0.48 inches of rain fall so far since midnight. We have a total of 0.76 inches of rain measured on AcuRite and 0.82 official inches of rain on the Status. Relative Humidity is at 95%. Winds at 9 mph from the NNE.

AcuRite Snapshot for current weather.

That is pretty much it for today. Take care and drive safely to work this morning. MP

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Weather Forecast for Sunday, November 19, 2023

Good morning! I was poking around the models this morning on this bright, clear, and beautiful day. Our weather forecast for Sunday afternoon will be wet and rainy. According to the HRRR models, we will have a start time of about noon tomorrow with rain. It will be about 66°, and the temperature will begin to fall as this system passes through the area. By 6 pm, the temperature will be around 52°. By midnight Sunday into Monday, it will be about 45°. The rain looks to continue off and on throughout the afternoon and well into Monday morning.

Weather forecast from HRRR Precipitation Type
HRRR Precipitation Type at noon CST or 6 pm GMT.

Rain amounts up to midnight Monday morning show about 0.23 inches.

Weather Forecast for Precipitation amounts from HRRR models.
HRRR Precipitation totals as of midnight Monday morning.

The WPC shows that we may have some actual thunderstorms. But we are way outside the severe aspect for this, so there may be a rumble or two. The WPC looks similar to the HRRR report for rain amounts at 0.25 inches.

Weather forecast model for the Weather Prediction Center
WPC model for Nevember 19, 2023
Weather Forecast model for QPF from Weather Prediction Center.
WPC Model for QPF for November 18,2023

That is about it for our weather forecast for today. Enjoy your Saturday! You can look at my previous post here. MP

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Friday Weather Forecast November 17, 2023 06:31 am

Good morning. Here is the latest Friday weather forecast for November 17, 2023. I hope all is well. We will be at a high of 53°, give or take, by 2 pm. There is no precipitation expected today. Skies will be clear to mostly clear today. Today will be your typical fall seasonal weather. We may start a little breezy this morning, but things will quickly calm down throughout the day. That is it for the Friday weather forecast.

Cloud Cover Friday Weather Forecast
HRRR Temperature
HRRR Wind Gusts

Our current temperature is 38.3°, and the pressure is 30.1 inches of mercury. The skies are clear. Winds are calm to 5 mph out of the northwest at the moment. Pretty uneventful at the current time.

I am looking at the sunspot activity; we are getting very close to possibly seeing our first spotless sun since the last solar cycle. Spots are much more sparse than in my November 12th post about this. Solar Cycle 24. Our previous solar minimum froze over the Missouri River. According to Space Weather Live, We are down to one spot on the right side of the sun’s hemisphere. We have a small earth-facing coronal hole moving across our sun’s equator.

Friday Weather Forecast Coronal Hole
Coronal hole
Sunspots

Suppose you are new to this site. I understand that my Facebook page and this website have a much different forecast than you are used to. I don’t believe in all the nonsense that the media has been hyping up to with all this nonsense talk about that double C word we won’t mention here. If you stick around, you will begin to see the absolute truth behind our weather and what is causing all the craziness.

That is about it for today’s post. Enjoy the rest of your day today.

Michael Pratt