More accurate than the media.
Here is the latest Tuesday Weather Forecast. Looking at the long-range GFS models, our next event is Thursday. The start time is about noon and ends at 6 pm on Thursday. Precipitation amounts are minimal, according to the GFS. It shows 0.39 inches of rain when all is said and done.
Today, we will hit a high of about 42° F by 3 pm. Skies will be mostly clear to clear and there may be a point in the day we encounter an overcast.
That is about it for today. MP
Good morning. There seems to be a lot of talk about a winter weather forecast this weekend. Most media are dramatizing it and saying we will get a significant measurable amount. If you are new here, you will soon discover that my weather forecasts, especially the winter ones, will be significantly different and sometimes the opposite of what the media says. I have had people who do this sort of thing for a living turn around and tell me that my forecasts are wrong because of whatever atmospheric 10k dollar words they use. I always say we will have to wait and see. Once the event ended, my prediction was correct.
I will be the first to tell you that I am not always accurate, and I always tell folks to grab other sources and compare and go based on what you see. Every once in a while, I get some hecklers that try and put a bad name on my site and they share my page in other groups saying this guy is terrible don’t use him he does this, that, and the other. I smile because people begin to gravitate to my site and I end up increasing in followers and traffic and the people realize that, hey this guy is pretty accurate. Free advertising. Anyway, enough of the rambling from me. How about this Winter Weather Forecast?
Looking at the medium- and long-range models and the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) at this point, it is looking like a do n’t-hold-your-breath sort of forecast. It is still really early in the game, even though we are three days out from the event. Don’t bank on any sort of significant amounts of snowfall. In fact, I will go as far as it being a wintery mix and we would be lucky to have any accumulation.
I base my winter weather forecast on these observations and sources. There are some inconsistencies with these models. One inconsistency is comparing GFS 10-1 totals, NAM totals, and the probabilities from Winter WX model totals on the WPC. Here are the differences and below that I will put the images.
I always steer towards the WPC model because that model is spot on practically every single time with winter forecasts.
One of the things that is similar is the timing. Every model shows a start time of 6 pm on Saturday evening. It also shows leaving the area by 3 am on Sunday. As we progress, I will post a short statement on social media or another blog post if it is extensive. That is about it for today.
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That is about it for today. Take care. MP
Good morning. Here is the Wednesday weather forecast for Wednesday, November 22, 2023. Models were about 3 degrees off this morning. We hit a low of 28 degrees. That said, my forecast for today will be 3 degrees lower from the reporting HRRR models on the College of Dupage site. My Atlas is about two degrees lower than the official COOP National Weather Service provided Nimbus, sitting at 26° F. Skies are clear this morning. Winds are calm.
There is not a whole lot going on for today’s forecast. It’s pretty quiet, and even the WPC shows nothing but a warm front to our west. Clear skies will dominate the day. We may shift to an overcast to mostly cloudy by about 11 am today, but it will only last about an hour.
As for today’s Wednesday weather forecast, we will be struggling with temperature for a possible high of 41° F (Based on the adjusted temperature).
Winds may become breezy around 11 am with a peak gust of 17 mph, give or take.
That is about it for today. Take care and I hope you have your Thanksgiving prepped and ready! Please consider visiting the rest of my posts here. MP
Good morning. Here is the Tuesday weather forecast. The temperature is going to struggle to get above 40° F today. Highs will be about 43° F if it makes it. Clouds should begin to move out of the area by 1 pm today. We may see a short bout of rain by 11 am, but after that we should be done for the day.
Current temperature is sitting at 39° F. Skies are cloudy. Wind speeds at 4 mph out of the northwest. We received 0.25 inches of precipitation over the past 24 hours making the total over the past 48 hours at 1.07 inches of precipitation. No lightning strikes recorded.
That is about it for today. Take care. MP
Good morning, here is the latest Monday weather forecast – November 20, 2023, hope your weekend was good and you got everything ready to go for Thanksgiving!
Rain will continue off and on throughout the day today and well into the evening. This system is just sitting over us and spinning. We will only reach to about 44° F by noon.
Currently we sit at 39°, with pressure at 29.91 inches of mercury. The AcuRite shows 0.48 inches of rain fall so far since midnight. We have a total of 0.76 inches of rain measured on AcuRite and 0.82 official inches of rain on the Status. Relative Humidity is at 95%. Winds at 9 mph from the NNE.
That is pretty much it for today. Take care and drive safely to work this morning. MP
Good morning everyone. We will get to the Sunday weather forecast shortly. I woke up this morning to view the security cameras, and we had a nice-sized buck pass through the neighborhood. I am pretty sure it was lost. It likely showed up due to it being hunting season. It was right about 4 am when it showed up.
I spent Saturday cleaning out the leaf-infested gutters and unclogging the downspouts. Did not take long at all. I’m almost done with the leaves on my property. I spent several hours cleaning up the pine needles from the large tree next door. I’m not too fond of pine trees. Their needles destroy ground nutrients if you don’t clean them up. They kill any vegetation around the area and destroy the soil’s PH. It hinders grass growth, too. To get back that grass, you have to either cut down the tree and/or replace the soil with good soil and plant sod or grass seed. The best solution is to get rid of the tree. They get pine cones and needles everywhere. I had one and got rid of it. The grass still does not grow right from it. Anyway, I digress. Let’s get on with the weather.
Tonday’s weather will be wet over the next 24 hours. Models are showing we could get a decent soaking, so if you were planning on doing any yard work, you have till about 2 pm to do that. It does show rain upon us by 3 pm today. You may hear a rumble or two of thunder while this system moves through the area. The Storm Prediction Center still shows just a chance of non-severe thunderstorms, which is to be expected since we are out of our peak season. Rain amounts are looking to be somewhere around half an inch to an inch for the Jackson County area. Rain amounts are much harder to get than snow amounts. We will reach to about 63° by 1 pm.
Our current temperature sits at 41° F. The barometric pressure is at 29.82 inches of mercury, humidity is at 73% Relative and skies are mostly clear since I see a few light clouds in the sky.
Sun activity is pretty minimal and quiet. We thought it was goung to go spotless for the first time in Solar Cycle 25, but that proved to be wrong and 3489 showed up. Looking at today’s image from Space Weather Live, we have two more sun spots that popped up ont he weatern hemisphere 2490 and 2491. That small coronal hole is slowly making its way acrossed the equator and is now passing through the eastern hemisphere. We do have an earth directed solar storm from a filliment on the 15th and should be here by Monday. We may have an increase of sunspot and solar activity.
That is pretty much it for today. Enjoy your day today.
Good morning Blue Springs! It’s hump day! Temperature is not too bad outside. Winds are practically at a standstill. Skies are lit up with stars with a clear morning sky. I hope everyone had a good night sleep and your week has gone well. If it has not, I’m praying that God will see you through it.
Current temperature is 38.9°. We had a high of 54.5 and a low of 32.7 over the past 24 hours. Relative humidity is 93%. Barometric pressure is 1019 and steady. Winds are at 1 gusting to 1 out of the East Northeast. Dew point temperature is 35°. Skies are clear. No precipitation to report. Feels like 33°.
Today, temperatures will be in the low 60s. Chance of precipitation 15%. Dew point temperature in the upper 40s. Skies will be mostly cloudy to partly cloudy.
Tonight, temperatures in the low 30s. Chance of precipitation 37%. Dew point temperature shifting to the upper 20s by 3am. Skies will be cloudy. Rain possible.
Thursday, temperatures in the upper 30s. Chance of precipitation 4%. Dew point temperature in the low teens. Skies will be clear.
Thursday night, temperatures in the low 20s. Chance of precipitation 0%. Dew point temperature in the upper teens. Skies will be clear.
Friday, temperatures in the low 40s. Chance of precipitation 0%. Dew point temperature in the low teens. Skies will be partly cloudy.
Friday night, temperatures in the low 30s. Chance of precipitation 0%. Dew point temperature in the upper 20s. Skies will be clear.
Current model steel show trace precipitation by 7pm this evening. Total precipitation when it is all said and done will be .02 inches give or take. The Eastern edge of Jackson County could get as much as .04 inches give or take. Models do show the possibility of freezing rain during this time frame but the accumulations are minimal and should not cause any problems. You should always lean on the side of caution and keep an eye on temperatures if you are out driving and it’s raining out. I did notice that rain switches to sleet about 35 degrees when I watched the last system that we had produce a mix.
Veterans Day weekend, if you are off on Monday like I am, it is looking like a beautiful three day weekend with no precipitation. Saturday and Sunday will be in the upper 50s to low 60s. Clear skies through Sunday. So that gives you all time to pick up all those fall leaves out of your yard. If anybody wants to pick up the leaves in my yard, feel free 😁.
Opening day for deer season looks to be wet at this time across most of Missouri. Something to prepare for if you are planning on going out that weekend.
That is pretty much it for today. Have a safe trip to work. Enjoy your hump day. Be safe driving home. Praying for you all.
Good morning Blue Springs and all who follow. I pray that everyone had a good night sleep and a great evening last night. Skies are clear in the constellation Orion is high in the beautiful night sky.
Temperature is 35.4. We had a high of 51.5 and a low of 35.4 over the past 24 hours. Relative humidity is 89%. Barometric pressure 1023(30.21 inches) and rising. Winds are at 0. Dew point temperature is 30°. Feels like 30°.
Today, temperature in the low 50s. Chance of precipitation 1%. Dew point temperature in the low 30s. Skies will be partly cloudy to mostly clear.
Tonight, temperatures in the low 40s. Chance of precipitation 0%. Dew point temperature in the upper 30s. Skies will be mostly clear to clear.
Wednesday, temperatures in e 60s. Chance of precipitation 12%. Dew point temperature in the upper 40s. Skies will be mostly clear to mostly cloudy by 3pm.
Wednesday night, temperatures in the low 30s. Chance of precipitation 51%. Dew point temperatures in the upper 40s dropping to the low 30s by 3am. Skies will be mostly cloudy to cloudy. Rain likely.
Thursday, temperatures in the upper 30s. Chance of precipitation 12%. Dew point temperature in the upper teens. Skies will be cloudy Shifting the partly cloudy to mostly clear by 3pm.
Thursday night, temperatures in the low 20s. Chance of precipitation 1%. Dew point temperature in the upper teens. Skies will be clear.
Looking at models for Wednesday at 6pm, looks like the system will start out scattered was rain and build up from there. It will continue off and on throughout Thursday. It will end about 3am early Thursday morning. The system will bring in cold dry air from the north. It will cause temperatures to struggle. Looks like eyes will be below 40 most of the day. As evening approaches, temperatures will drop Thursday into Friday. Temperatures will be as low as 24 degrees give or take. If you remember I talked about Veterans Day being possible snow and ice oh, that has since disappeared over the past couple of days. It is looking like the weekend is going to be fairly nice without any precipitation. This Saturday looks to be in the upper 50s. Lows will be in the upper 30s. Sunday’s high will be in the upper 30s. Sunday into Monday will be in the low 20s possibly into the teens. That is the only thing that we have to deal with over the weekend at this time.
That is pretty much it for today. Have a safe trip to and from work. Take care of yourselves.
Good morning Blue Springs! Happy Sunday! It is clear skies this morning. No precipitation to report. Hope all had a good night sleep and I hope everyone set their clocks back an hour. I really wish they would get rid of daylight savings time.
Relative humidity 71%. Barometric pressure 1017(30.03 inches) and falling. Winds are at 5 gusting to 7 out of the west southwest. Dew point temperature is 28°. Feels like 30°. Skies are clear. No precipitation to report.
Today, temperatures in the upper 50s. Chance of precipitation 0%. Dew point temperature in the upper 30s. Skies will be clear becoming mostly cloudy by noon. Then shifting back to clear.
Tonight, temperatures in the low 40s. Chance of precipitation is 0%. Dew point temperature in the upper 30s to low 40s. Skies will be mostly clear to partly cloudy.
Monday, temperatures in the low 50s. Chance of precipitation 2%. Dew point temperature in the upper 30s. Skies will be partly cloudy to mostly cloudy.
Monday night, temperatures in the low 30s. Chance of precipitation 1%. Dew point temperature in the low 30s. Skies will be mostly clear.
Tuesday, temperatures in the low 50s. Chance of precipitation 1%. Dew point temperature in the low 30s. Skies will be clear.
Tuesday night, temperatures in the low 40s. Chance of precipitation 7%. Dew point temperature in the low 30s to upper 30s. Skies will be partly cloudy to mostly clear.
Models don’t show a whole lot up through Wednesday. Monday November 11th is flip-flopping. Currently model show nothing in our area, but it is around the other counties. I still will keep an eye on that day in case things change. With it being so far ahead it doesn’t surprise me that the models are doing that. Wednesday November 13th we have a fairly large system the starts out as rain throughout the entire day and into Thursday morning. Then the system shifts to ice by 7am and Snow by 4pm. This is another system that we need to keep an eye on.
That is about it for today. Enjoy your day of worship if that is what you do. May the Lord Jesus Christ speak to you and radically change your life. Be safe out there.
Good morning Blue Springs, I hope and pray that everyone had a good Friday evening, and that you all had a good night’s sleep. Jack Frost came and visited us last night, as we have some light frost on the grass.
Temperature is at 35.1. We had a high of 54.1 and a low of 29.5. Relative humidity is 89%. Barometric pressure is 1024(30.24 inches) and steady. Winds are 0 gusting to 4 out of the Southwest. Dew point temperature is 30°. Skies are clear. No precipitation to report. Feels like 29°.
Today, temperature in the low 50s. Chance of precipitation 0%. Dew point temperature in the upper twenties. Skies will be clear.
Tonight, temperatures in the upper 30s. Chance of precipitation 0%. Dew point temperature in the upper 20s. Skies will be clear.
Sunday, temperatures in the upper 50s. Chance of precipitation 0%. Dew point temperature in the low 30s to upper 30s. Skies will be mostly clear.
Sunday night, temperatures in the low 40s. Chance of precipitation 0%. Dew point temperature in the upper 30s. Skies will be partly cloudy to mostly clear.
Monday, temperatures will be in the upper 50s. Chance of precipitation 2%. Dew point temperature in the upper 30s. Skies will be partly cloudy to mostly cloudy.
Monday night, temperatures in the upper 30s. Chance of precipitation 5%. Dew point temperature in the upper 30s. Skies will be partly cloudy to mostly cloudy.
This weekend will be beautiful, with no precipitation. Monday morning at about 4am, we may have a small bout of precipitation move in. Models right now show no signs of precipitation, but there will be some clouds hovering about that could bring some. What system should be out by 10am. Jackson County could get clipped by another small system passing through on Tuesday morning at 1am November 5th. This may not produce anything but it is just something to know. Tuesday night into Wednesday morning could bring us some precipitation in the form of rain. This system should be out by 7am Thursday morning. A larger system will be passing through on Sunday November 10th after about 2pm. Bringing rain throughout the day and evening hours. The back side of the system could bring some ice and snow around 10pm on November 11th. The system should be out before 4am Tuesday November 12th.
That’s pretty much it for today. The weekends going to be nice to be able to get the yard mowed and do whatever else. Enjoy your weekend and talk to you soon.