Winter Weather Update | How much snow will we get?

Good morning. Here is the latest winter weather update. I was looking at the latest models. The start time is about 2 pm for rain, and shifts to snow by 5 pm. The Weather Prediction Center still shows a mix as this system moves through the area. The snow probability of one inch or greater has shifted to about 40-50% for the Blue Springs Area, and 60-70% of snow amounts to 1 inch and greater for Independence and Kansas City. With snow amounts of 2 inches and greater, the percentage drops substantially for all areas, so I would not count on more than an inch of accumulation, if any.

Winter weather update from HRRR Type — HRRR Type for winter weather update.

HRRR Precipitation Type — HRRR Type for winter weather update.

Precipitation amounts for the HRRR show too much snow. It sits at 1.8 inches of snow by 10 pm, and the NAM shows snow amounts that are way too much at 4 inches plus. The reason why I don’t subscribe to those is because of the Weather Prediction Center. Don’t hold your breath for an accumulation of 4 inches, or even one inch for that matter, for Blue Springs.

NAM Snow amounts after system passes through

The current temperature is about 26° F. The HRRR models show a high of almost 39° F, give or take, by 1 pm. After that, the temperature will begin to fall, and it looks to hover around 33° F by evening.

That is about it for today. If anything else changes, I will likely post it on Facebook directly. Take care. MP

November 11, 2023November 11, 2023

Fall Temperatures Continue

Good morning everyone and Happy Veterans Day to my brothers and sisters in arms. It has been a while since I have posted anything to my site. Leaves continue to plague our areas and covering our yards. I spent a few hours yesterday cleaning the front yard of all the dreaded maple leaves. It looked nice yesterday but over night more had fallen and littered my yard.

Fall temperatures will continue. Today will be similar to yesterday, with a high of 56°, give or take, by 2 p.m according to HRRR 2m Temperature model. As I type this, the temperature is 40.1°. The barometric pressure is the highest I have seen on my AcuRite this month. It sits at 30.45 inches of pressure and steady. Last month on October 31st at 30.56 inches of pressure.

The local medi a tells us that there is a chance of rain today with possible drizzle, but I beg to differ with Jackson County. Models for the HRRR Precipitation Type show that the rain will be way north of our county. High pressure continues to dominate

HRRT Precipitation Type for 11/11/2023 5 p.m. CST.

As for sunspot activity, we are still only seeing spots on the right side of the glob and nothing has been produced from the left side. If this persists we may see our first spotless sun since our solar maximum. A Coronal Mass Ejection from a filiment on our suns surface should hit our Earth today around 3 p.m. according to NOAA.

That is about it for today. Michael Pratt

November 9, 2019

November 9th 2019 Forecast

Good morning Blue Springs! I pray that your evening was blessed. It is a crisp clear morning this morning. Skies are clear. No precipitation to report. This weekend maybe a good weekend to put up your Christmas lights. Do some yard work, or spend some time outside enjoying the beautiful fall colors. Come Monday temperatures will be a shocker. Highs will be in the low 30s. Dew point temperatures will be in the low single digits. So very dry. Time to break out the hand lotion, or the humidifier so we don’t all flake away. This is the time of the year that I can’t stand. My legs get so bad and dried out.

CURRENT CONDITIONS

Temperature is 36.6°. We had a high of 41.5 and a low of 18.5 over the past 24 hours. Barometric pressure is 1013( 29.91 inches) and falling. Relative humidity is 72%. Winds are at 2 guesting to seven out of the West. Dew point temperature is 27°. Feels like 29°. Skies are clear. No precipitation to report.

FORECAST

Today, temperatures in the upper 60s. Chance of precipitation 0%. Dew point temperature will be in the upper 30s. Skies will be clear.

Tonight, temperatures in the low 40s. Chance of precipitation 0%. Dew point temperature in the low 40s. Skies will be clear.

Sunday, temperatures in the upper 50s. Chance of precipitation 1%. Dew point temperature in the upper 30s. Skies will be clear to mostly clear.

Sunday night, temperatures in the upper 20s. Chance of precipitation 21%. Dew point temperature in the upper 30s to Upper 20s by 3am. Skies will be mostly cloudy to cloudy. Snow possible after midnight.

Monday, temperatures in the low 30s. Chance of precipitation 7%. Dew point temperature in the upper teens to single digits. Skies will be cloudy to mostly cloudy.

Monday night, temperatures in the low teens. Chance of precipitation 2%. Dew point temperature in the low single digits. Skies will be clear.

MODEL DISCUSSION

Looking at models for this weekend oh, there is nothing going on. Monday however, is a different story. System should start moving in by about midnight Monday morning, then really transition into a snow by 6am. Snow amounts can be up to a tenth of an inch. In some areas of Jackson County you may not get anything at all. It just all depends on where the system lands. Should have a fairly accurate forecast within about 12 to 24 hours before. Temperatures will definitely be much colder indefinitely the coldest for the entire season.

Opening day of deer season on Saturday November 16th it will be wet. Looking at our state overall it looks to be pretty scattered. As far as Jackson County is concerned, we will be getting some rain that morning. Temperatures will be in the low 50s on Saturday. Sunday it will be in the upper 40s. Not sure if deer are going to be active that weekend or not. Hopefully those temperatures will drop a little more.

That is pretty much it for today, may your weekend be a blessing. Be careful this weekend if you are going to be in the yard or on the roof.

November 2, 2019

November 2nd 2019 Forecast

Good morning Blue Springs, I hope and pray that everyone had a good Friday evening, and that you all had a good night’s sleep. Jack Frost came and visited us last night, as we have some light frost on the grass.

CURRENT CONDITIONS

Temperature is at 35.1. We had a high of 54.1 and a low of 29.5. Relative humidity is 89%. Barometric pressure is 1024(30.24 inches) and steady. Winds are 0 gusting to 4 out of the Southwest. Dew point temperature is 30°. Skies are clear. No precipitation to report. Feels like 29°.

FORECAST

Today, temperature in the low 50s. Chance of precipitation 0%. Dew point temperature in the upper twenties. Skies will be clear.

Tonight, temperatures in the upper 30s. Chance of precipitation 0%. Dew point temperature in the upper 20s. Skies will be clear.

Sunday, temperatures in the upper 50s. Chance of precipitation 0%. Dew point temperature in the low 30s to upper 30s. Skies will be mostly clear.

Sunday night, temperatures in the low 40s. Chance of precipitation 0%. Dew point temperature in the upper 30s. Skies will be partly cloudy to mostly clear.

Monday, temperatures will be in the upper 50s. Chance of precipitation 2%. Dew point temperature in the upper 30s. Skies will be partly cloudy to mostly cloudy.

Monday night, temperatures in the upper 30s. Chance of precipitation 5%. Dew point temperature in the upper 30s. Skies will be partly cloudy to mostly cloudy.

MODEL DISCUSSION

This weekend will be beautiful, with no precipitation. Monday morning at about 4am, we may have a small bout of precipitation move in. Models right now show no signs of precipitation, but there will be some clouds hovering about that could bring some. What system should be out by 10am. Jackson County could get clipped by another small system passing through on Tuesday morning at 1am November 5th. This may not produce anything but it is just something to know. Tuesday night into Wednesday morning could bring us some precipitation in the form of rain. This system should be out by 7am Thursday morning. A larger system will be passing through on Sunday November 10th after about 2pm. Bringing rain throughout the day and evening hours. The back side of the system could bring some ice and snow around 10pm on November 11th. The system should be out before 4am Tuesday November 12th.

That’s pretty much it for today. The weekends going to be nice to be able to get the yard mowed and do whatever else. Enjoy your weekend and talk to you soon.

October 26, 2019

October 26th 2019 Forecast

Good morning Blue Springs! Beautiful sky. If you go outside this morning, look to the north high in the sky you will see Orion. If you turn around to the South, look high in the sky and you will see the Big Dipper. It is chilly this morning. There is heavy dew on the rain gauge.

CURRENT CONDITIONS

Temperature is 35.4°. We had a high of 52.7 and a low of 35.4. Relative humidity 97%. Barometric pressure 1014(29.94 inches) and falling. Winds are at 0 gusting to 1 out of the south-southwest. Dew point temperature is 33°. Feels like 30°. No precipitation to report.

FORECAST

Today, temperatures in the upper 50s. Chance of rain 4%. Dew point temperature in the upper 30s. Skies will be mostly clear.

Tonight, temperatures in the low 40s. Chance of rain 0%. Dew point temperature in the low 40s. Skies will be clear.

Sunday, temperatures in the low 60s. Chance of rain 1%. Dew point temperature in the low 40s. Skies will be mostly clear.

Sunday night, temperatures in the upper 30s. Chance of raining 2%. Dew point temperature in the upper 30s. Skies will be mostly clear shifting to mostly cloudy by 1am.

Monday, temperatures in the upper 40s. Chance of rain 37%. Dew point temperature in the low 30s. Skies will be cloudy.

Monday night temperatures in the upper 20s. Chance of precipitation 50%. Dew point temperature in the low 30s. Skies will be cloudy to mostly cloudy.

MODEL DISCISSION

Current model show rain after 7pm Sunday night continuing into the morning around 7am Monday. Another round starting Monday between 7 and 10pm and rolling out by about 7am Tuesday morning. Our snow chances I’ve been pushed forward a little, with snow starting about 1 am Wednesday morning and continuing true Halloween and ending by early Friday morning. Snow amounts will be measurable. I just don’t trust the amounts that the models are talking about. Regardless I am pretty sure trick or treaters are going to be in snow boots and heavy coats and gloves. Temperatures for Halloween will be in the 20s in the evening at this time.

As for the cold front, it will arrive by 10am Monday morning. Temperatures will continue to fall throughout the week next week. By Friday morning, temperatures will be in the upper teens. Looks like average temperatures will be in the low 40s at the beginning of November as we progress into winter.

That is pretty much it for today. Enjoy your weekend. You may want to get prepared for snow by getting your shovels ready and ice melt.

October 19, 2019October 20, 2019

October 19th Forecast

Good morning Blue Springs! Not sure what was going on last night. All of a sudden this page was not available under my pages manager app, but I could get to it through the web. I got up this morning and still was not able to get to it through my app on my phone. I had to actually reboot my phone just to get just page back on my app. It was the weirdest thing. Anyway, enough of that.

CURRENT CONDITIONS

Temperature is 52.2°. We had a high of 68.3 and a low of 51.9 over the past 24 hours. Relative humidity 84%. Barometric pressure 1005 and steady. Winds at 0 gusting to 4 out of the South. Dew point temperature 47°. Skies are mostly cloudy. No precipitation to report. Feels like 51°.

FORECAST

Today, temperature in the low 60s. Chance of rain 80%. Dew point temperature in the low 50s. Skies will be cloudy shifting the partly cloudy by 4pm. Rain likely.Tonight, temperatures in the mid to upper 40s. Chance of rain 80%. Dew point temperature in the upper 40s. Skies will be clear.Sunday, temperatures in the low 70s. Chance of rain 10%. Dew point temperature in the low 50s. Skies will be partly cloudy shifting 2 mostly cloudy by 4pm.Sunday night, temperatures in the upper 40s. Chance of rain 54%. Dew point temperature in the low 50s. Skies will be cloudy Shifting the partly cloudy by 4am. Rain likely.Monday, temperatures in the low 60s. Chance of rain 11%. Dew point temperature in the low 40s dropping to the upper 30s by 4pm. Skies will be partly cloudy.Monday night, temperatures in the low 40s. Chance of rain 5%. Dew point temperature in the upper 30s. Skies will be partly cloudy to mostly clear.

CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

Convective Outlook shows today and tomorrow with a Chance of non severe thunderstorms. Monday has chance of non severe or severe thunderstorms.

MODEL DISCUSSION

Looking at models, rain is currently approaching, and should be here in the next half hour or so. Rain should stop or be on its way out by about 11 this morning. The smaller system on Sunday should be here around 4 or 5pm. It should be on its way out after 1am Monday morning. Another system will be in our area on Thursday October 24th around 10am.There’s another system on Monday October 28th after noon or so. This is the system to watch. As a currently shows 4 inches of snow in our area by 7pm! It is kind of funny though, how these models are acting, the newest run shows nothing! This is one day that has peaked my interest to definately watch! Imagine snow on the ground on Halloween!

October 12, 2019

October 12th 2019 Forecast

Good morning Blue Springs, it is cold outside. Had to crank on the Heat this morning. Walked outside to check the Gage and there was frost on it. I hope everyone had quiet evening yesterday.

CURRENT WEATHER

Temperature is 33.3°. We had a high of 49.2 and a low of 30.6. Relative humidity 82%. Barometric pressure 1018(30.06 inches) and falling. Winds are at 0 gusting to 5 out of the south-southwest. Dew point temperature is 27°. Skies are clear. Feels like 26°.

FORECAST

Today, temperatures will be in the low 60s. Chance of rain 0%. Dew point temperature in the upper 30s by 4pm. Skies will be clear.

Tonight, temperatures will be in the low 40s. Chance of rain 0%. Dew point temperature will be in the upper 30s. Skies will be clear.

Sunday, temperatures will be in the upper 60s. Chance of rain 0%. Dew point temperature will be in the upper 30s. Skies will be clear.

Sunday night, temperatures will be in the low 40s. Chance of rain 0%. Dew point temperature will be in the low 40s. Skies will be clear.

Monday, temperatures in the 70s. Chance of rain 0%. Dew point temperature will be in the low 50s by 4pm. Skies will be clear.

Monday night, temperatures will be in the mid to Upper 50s. Chance of rain 15%. Dew point temperature will be in the upper 50s. Skies will be partly cloudy.

CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

Convective outlook for today and tomorrow shows no severe or non severe thunderstorms in our forecast. Monday into Tuesday shows a chance of non severe thunderstorms.

MODEL DISCUSSION

I see a small system showing up in our area about 1am Tuesday morning. It does not look like it will bring forth much rain. It looks like it may last throughout the day on Tuesday ending about 1pm. A larger system will be producing on Friday October 18th around 10am. The system will last through Saturday and into Sunday morning about 10am. As for temperatures, looks like we will have a former weekend was October 19th and 20th with temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s. Another cold front follows behind that on October 25th where temperatures will be in the low 30s again at 7am.

Not a whole lot going on this weekend weather wise. Looks like it’s going to be clear. We can get our grass mowed. It’ll be pretty nice outside to do some activities.

October 5, 2019

Saturday October 5th 2019 Forecast

Good morning Blue Springs! Southside of Blue Springs receive no precipitation. Some of you have probably received some rain that ran for about 5 to 10 minutes. Currently the system that I have been talking about over the week is approaching our area. It will be a few more hours. Start time was pushed later.

CURRENT CONDITIONS

Current temperature is 57.8°. We had a high of 61 and a low of 49.3 overnight. Relative humidity is 81%. Barometric pressure is 1014(29.94 inches) and falling. Wind’s are gusting to 5 out of the east Southeast. Dew point temperature is 51°. Feels like 56°.

MODEL DISCUSSION

I’m looking at models first, because I know some of you are interested about today with your activities. Unfortunately, it looks like the start time moved up to 10 am and ending by 4 pm. Sunday has changed as well and we may end up with scattered showers throughout our county and the area. Does not look like it will amount to much. May not happen at all since the amounts are so small.

THREE DAY FORECAST

Today, temperatures will be in the low-to-mid 70s. Chance of rain 84%. Dew point temperatures will be in the low 60s. This will start to fall at 4 pm. Skies will be cloudy most of the day turning partly cloudy by 4 pm.

Tonight, temperature will be in the upper 40s give or take. Chance of rain 3%. Dew point temperature will continue to fall this evening and be in the upper 40s by 4am Sunday morning. Clouds will disappear becoming clear throughout the night.

Sunday, temperatures will be in the mid to Upper 60s. Chance of rain 5%. Dew point temperature in the upper 40s. Skies will be mostly clear shifting to mostly cloudy by 1pm roughly.

Sunday night temperatures will be in the mid-40s give or take. Chance of rain 2%. Dew point temperature will continue to fall to the low 40s by 4am Monday morning. Skies will shift from mostly cloudy to mostly clear by Monday morning.

Monday, temperatures will be in the low 70s. Chance of rain 1%. Dew point temperatures will stay in the low 40s. Skies will be clear.

Monday evening, temperatures will be in the upper 40s. Chance of rain 0%. Dew point temperature in the low 40s. Skies will be clear.

OUTLOOK

Convective Outlook shows today with a Chance of non severe thunderstorms. The next two days show no chance of thunderstorms severe or otherwise.

COLD TEMPS

Looking at temperatures ahead, Friday October 11th is something to watch has temperatures are going to be in the low 30s by 7 a.m. as a cold front moves in. Saturday October 12th around 4 a.m. we will hit a low of about 38 or so. Further on ahead on Saturday October 19th our temperature will be a low of about 37 degrees by 7 am. Those forecasts are pretty far out, so those temperatures could increase as we press forward towards those days.

Have a great day Blue Springs and all who follow. Make sure you bring a rain jacket or an umbrella.