Good morning. This Winter Weather Update is from the morning of January 6, 2024. If you are reading this a day later, it is old data and you need to go to my Facebook page or my most recent blog post if I have one.
I have been watching the models, and we may have some snow that can hinder driving and make roads slightly dangerous. The key to a safe drive is TIRES with GOOD tread! You will have issues getting around if your tires do not have good tread
Looking at the Weather Prediction Center we are looking at up to 40% change of snow accumulations at 4 inches or greater for the Jackson County area. The break down of snow amounts for Tuesday January 9, 2024 is this:
Precipitation Chances 1″ or greater of snow accumulation – 90% 2″ or greater of snow accumulation – 60% 4″ or greater of snow accumulation – 30%
Winter Weather Update from WPCWinter Weather Update for Snow amounts
Looking at the NAM model for snow amounts is the perfect esample why I don’t like snow amounts for the usual models I use for severe weather. They are shows 5+ inches of snow and all it does is give me a good belly laugh. These are the things that the Media are going to EAT up instead of heading over to the Weather Prediction Center and getting the correct model for snow amounts.
Severity will be minor according to the Severity index. But that ALL depends on your tire condition. I am sure the NWS will kick off a winter weather advisory / watch soon.
That is pretty much it for today. Stay away from the media for a bit. They are really going nuts out there with this stuff. I would go with the one that is less dramatic on their posts and television forecasts. Take care everyone and enjoy your weekend. I will keep you posted on social media or do another blog post if there are any more changes to this forecast.
Good evening. It looks like rain throughout the evening and well into Christmas. Even though the GFS shows snow, the Weather Prediction Center shows nothing is expected. Temperatures will be in the 50s and 60s until about Sunday evening, about 6 pm, when the temperature will tank. The temperature will be around 36° F by noon.
GFS TemperatureHRRR Precipitation TypeWinter Weather Outlook for Christmas
The sun is pretty active, according to the Space Weather Live website. We had a fairly large earthquake in China at 6.3 magnitude and it killed 191 people. We also had a Volcanic eruption the day before the earthquake in Iceland. Caused by the Coronal hole that passed in front of us a few days before.
Good morning. Here is the Sunday Forecast, but first, the measurements and current weather. I am ready for the summer now—enough of this white stuff. I walked out to get the Stratus and get measurements. We ended with 2.4 inches of snow with a liquid equivalent of .27 inches. That makes the ratio 8.9 inches of snow to 1 inch of liquid. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) was off by about an inch. God said, “Here is a little more to grow on.” He is in control. The WPC is still a more accurate source than the snow amounts for others.
The current temperature is 25° F. Skies are mostly cloudy, and winds are three miles per hour out of the northwest. The relative humidity is at 92%. The barometric pressure is at 29.83 inches of mercury. The radar is pretty clear, and the atmosphere is pretty dry now.
RadarWater Vapor Loop
Here is the Sunday Forecast for today. We will hit a high of 36° F, give or take, by 3 pm. It will be a bit breezy today, with wind gusts peaking at about 27-28 miles per hour by noon today. Winds should begin to calm down at about 6 pm tonight.
TemperatureWind Gust
Lots of activity on the sun’s surface. There are still lots of sunspots. The sun is trying to hold on to that solar maximum before it goes back to sleep and becomes dormant again.
That is all I have to talk about today. Take care. MP
Good morning. Here is the latest winter weather update. I was looking at the latest models. The start time is about 2 pm for rain, and shifts to snow by 5 pm. The Weather Prediction Center still shows a mix as this system moves through the area. The snow probability of one inch or greater has shifted to about 40-50% for the Blue Springs Area, and 60-70% of snow amounts to 1 inch and greater for Independence and Kansas City. With snow amounts of 2 inches and greater, the percentage drops substantially for all areas, so I would not count on more than an inch of accumulation, if any.
WPC Weather MapHRRR Type for winter weather update.HRRR Precipitation TypeWPC Precipitation amount probabilities
Precipitation amounts for the HRRR show too much snow. It sits at 1.8 inches of snow by 10 pm, and the NAM shows snow amounts that are way too much at 4 inches plus. The reason why I don’t subscribe to those is because of the Weather Prediction Center. Don’t hold your breath for an accumulation of 4 inches, or even one inch for that matter, for Blue Springs.
NAM Snow amounts after system passes throughHRRR Snow Amounts by 10 pm CST
The current temperature is about 26° F. The HRRR models show a high of almost 39° F, give or take, by 1 pm. After that, the temperature will begin to fall, and it looks to hover around 33° F by evening.
HRRR Temperatures
That is about it for today. If anything else changes, I will likely post it on Facebook directly. Take care. MP
Good morning. There seems to be a lot of talk about a winter weather forecast this weekend. Most media are dramatizing it and saying we will get a significant measurable amount. If you are new here, you will soon discover that my weather forecasts, especially the winter ones, will be significantly different and sometimes the opposite of what the media says. I have had people who do this sort of thing for a living turn around and tell me that my forecasts are wrong because of whatever atmospheric 10k dollar words they use. I always say we will have to wait and see. Once the event ended, my prediction was correct.
I will be the first to tell you that I am not always accurate, and I always tell folks to grab other sources and compare and go based on what you see. Every once in a while, I get some hecklers that try and put a bad name on my site and they share my page in other groups saying this guy is terrible don’t use him he does this, that, and the other. I smile because people begin to gravitate to my site and I end up increasing in followers and traffic and the people realize that, hey this guy is pretty accurate. Free advertising. Anyway, enough of the rambling from me. How about this Winter Weather Forecast?
Looking at the medium- and long-range models and the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) at this point, it is looking like a do n’t-hold-your-breath sort of forecast. It is still really early in the game, even though we are three days out from the event. Don’t bank on any sort of significant amounts of snowfall. In fact, I will go as far as it being a wintery mix and we would be lucky to have any accumulation.
Inconsistencies in the Winter Weather Forecast
I base my winter weather forecast on these observations and sources. There are some inconsistencies with these models. One inconsistency is comparing GFS 10-1 totals, NAM totals, and the probabilities from Winter WX model totals on the WPC. Here are the differences and below that I will put the images.
GFS shows a significant measurable amount of 2.5 inches
NAM shows a measurable amount of 1.4 inches
The WPC says the chance of snow at 1 inch or greater is 30-40% and 40-50% closer to the downtown KC area.
The other thing to consider is that we are still hovering around a solar maximum that negatively affects snow and winter weather. Why? The temperatures are higher during these periods, and at a solar minimum, the temperatures are lower. Our solar cycles are moving into a Grand Solar Minimum, which you can learn about here. A Grand Solar Minimum is multiple cycles where the sun is not as active, even during a solar maximum on those solar cycles.
WPC Map shows a mix for Saturday into SundayNAM Snow AmountGFS Snow AmountWPC Snow ProbabilityCurrent Sunspot image from Space Weather Live
I always steer towards the WPC model because that model is spot on practically every single time with winter forecasts.
One of the things that is similar is the timing. Every model shows a start time of 6 pm on Saturday evening. It also shows leaving the area by 3 am on Sunday. As we progress, I will post a short statement on social media or another blog post if it is extensive. That is about it for today.
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Good evening. It does not surprise me that Blue Springs weather shifts back and forth like menopause. This happens every season. Winter, spring, summer, fall. The last system was a fairly strong storm in places with only 0.25 inches or precipitation. Why is that? Why do we shift? Because the Earth does not rotate perfectly. It wobbles and, in turn, causes the weather to shift up and down.
Blue Springs Weather Forecast
For now, we are going to focus on the upcoming Friday weather. Mind you, this is still early and will definitely change and shift a little as we move forward. We will start at about 5 pm tomorrow (Thursday) night. It starts off as rain with the temperature at about 47°. According to the HRRR model for the current hour, the rain will shift to Sleet for a short time at 5 am, then shift to very heavy snow by 6 am. It seems that the snow amount, according to HRRR, is 4 inches. Don’t get excited. The WPC shows no real snow accumulation, and the WPC has yet to miss the mark.
So if anything changes, I will update it on social media. Please consider subscribing to my Weather Research site called Project Stormfront. From his site, you will see real science experiments and research papers based on real science. Eventually, I will have ways to support this page and my research on the weather. MP
Blue Springs Forecast for Monday, February 20, 2023. Good evening everyone. Here are our current conditions as of 6:16 PM tonight. The current temperature is sitting at 54.5°. We had a high of 62°. The barometric pressure is 29.8 inches and steady. Winds are at 2 mph from the southeast. The dew point is at 29°, and the relative humidity is at 34%. The skies are cloudy.
Blue Springs Forecast
We are heading into spring-like weather this week, with temperatures in the 50s and 60s during the day and in the 30s over the evening hours. The temperature will be back down to the 30s during the day. By Thursday evening, the temperature will struggle to get to 31°. By Friday morning at about 7:00, the temperatures will be in the upper teens.
We may see some snow on Friday, but all the accumulation will be way north in the Minnesota area, which looks like there is a pretty good possibility of some impressive snow amounts there. We may be dealing with rain this Wednesday morning and the possibility of snow on Friday. The rain could be significant enough to give us a decent ground drenching. The WPC tells us we could see up to a quarter of an inch or more in our area.
Blue Springs Forecast from WPC for Rain in excess of three quarters of an inch or higher
On another note, I hope you will consider supporting my weather research page called Project Stormfront. There I will be posting true scientific research without the agendas. I have already moved my research paper on solar intensity to that site and tweaked it a bit more.
Ready for round two? Here is the latest forecast for tomorrow’s Blue Springs Weather and Jackson County and its impact. Here is the breakdown.
Forecast
6 am Tuesday, System arrives with rain and temperature at 38 degrees. 11 pm Tuesday Rain shifts to snow. Some snow may be heavy. The system leaves the area by 7 am Wednesday.
Liquid precipitation amounts are not much and look to be about 0.26 inches of precipitation.
Snow amounts for the HRRR models are a little over 1 inch for Jackson County and the Blue Springs area. The Weather Prediction Center shows a 10 to 40% chance of snow accumulations of 4 inches and higher. Don’t hold your breath. There is a 50-60% chance of snow accumulations of 2 inches or greater; for 1 inch or greater, we are at an 80-90% chance. So with those numbers, we are guaranteed 1 inch of snow and maybe a little more. I am sure these models will change again by tomorrow, and if they do, I will reach out again.
Conclusion
The impact will be minor to moderate, depending on the part of Jackson County you live in. The Downtown area is moderate.
Good morning Chiefs Kingdom. Here is the latest for Blue Springs Weather and Jackson County. Make sure you bring a rain jacket because it will start at 39 degrees for a high by about 2 pm, give or take. Winds will be minimal and well below 10 mph.
Rains arrive in Jackson County by 1 pm. By 2 pm, the rain will cover about half the county from the southwest corner to the northeast corner then by 3 pm; the entire county should be in the rain mode. By 6 pm, we will shift to snow.
We can expect a small amount of snow, based on the WPC. Although some parts of the WPC show a 95 percent chance of snow up to 1-2 inches around the Jackson County area, I don’t think the snow amounts will add up to much, even though it says 1-2 inches. It looks like Blue Springs is going to be split with more snow possible north of 7 highway and Summit Street.
Impacts will be very minimal and as long as you are driving carefully you should be fine.
That is pretty much it for today folks. Take care and GO CHIEFS! MP
Good morning, It looks like our accumulation of snow has moved far north along the edge of our county. According to the Weather Prediction Center the snow has completely shifted to a mix for Saturday and if there is any accumulation it may be around vegetation, but with what the WPC showing , don’t hold your breath on anything hindering driving unless you live along the northern edge of Jackson County.
WPC National Forecast Chart
Today’s high will only be 36 degrees give or take by 3pm today. Take care.
