Tag: Tornado

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2023 Missouri Tornado Highlights and Predictions

Here is the 2023 Missouri Tornado Highlights based on an 11-year cycle between 2013 to 2023. I took these from official NOAA storm reports.

2023 confirmed tornadoes based on NOAA have increased 60% from 10 reports in 2022 to 25.

2023 tornado reports are down 124% from 56 to 25.

Out of 11 years, 2017 was the high for Missouri Tornadoes at 56. The low was 10 for 2022.

2023 Missouri tornado highlights 11 year graph.

2023 Jackson County, Missouri Tornado Highlights

For Jackson County Missouri, the highest number of recorded tornadoes was 2 for 2019.

Jackson County Missouri Recorded Tornadoes.

These two confirmed tornadoes were in Cockrell and Vale with no injuries or deaths.

in 2017, NOAA recorded 12 injuries when an EF3 tornado started in Tarsney Lakes, Missouri, and ended in Oak Grove, Missouri.

2024 Predictions

2024 prediction for Jackson County based on trends and patterns looks to be possible 2 tornadic events. I believe that these events may lead to an EF1 and an EF2 event. I cannot determine a location and it would be too difficult.

2023 prediction for the state of Missouri based on trends and patterns looks to be possible 9-12 events. These events may lead to an EF3 event. The location of these events are undetermined because that would be too difficult to determine.

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How is the Strength of a Tornado Measured?

Enhanced Fujita Scale

Enhanced Fujita Scale Measures Strength of a Tornado

The strength of a tornado is determined using the Enhanced Fujita Scale, which assigns a rating from 0 to 5 based on the observed damage. To determine the strength of a tornado, experts examine the type of objects that were affected, the extent of the destruction, and the size of the affected area.

In addition to the EF scale, eyewitness accounts and the presence of other tornadoes in the area can also be taken into account when measuring the strength of a tornado. This is because tornadoes that occur in close proximity are likely to be related and, therefore, potentially of higher intensity.

Size and Shape Affect Strength of a Tornado

It is important to note that the size and shape of a tornado do not necessarily indicate its strength or its capability to inflict damage [1]. Tornadoes can range from a few feet to more than two miles in width and can cause destruction in various ways. For example, some tornadoes may produce winds that cause damage to buildings, while others may produce strong winds that cause trees to be uprooted.

Measurements

To effectively measure and monitor the strength of a tornado, it is important to use various tools and techniques. These can include radar, weather balloons, satellites, and eyewitness accounts. Using these tools, meteorologists can better predict the behavior of a tornado and provide more accurate warnings to the public.

Signs of an Impending Tornado

In addition, it is important to stay alert and be aware of the signs of an impending tornado, such as dark and greenish skies, large hail, and a loud roar. Taking shelter in a secure location and avoiding windows can help keep individuals safe in a tornado.

Measuring and monitoring tornadoes is important to be prepared for these storms and stay safe. Using the Enhanced Fujita Scale, meteorologists and weather researchers can accurately measure the strength of a tornado and provide more precise warnings to the public.

Read more about tornados and the 3 Things That Affect Tornado Strength.

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Current Weather Observations and Forecast, Severe Storms Likely

Sounding for January 2, 2023

Good morning. I hope those of you that are off in observance of the New Year is doing well. Here is the latest Blue Springs Weather to include Jackson County Weather. It is pretty foggy out. According to the HRRR, visibility will begin to open up by about 4 pm this afternoon. According to the National Weather Service in Pleasant Hill, we are under a dense fog until noon today.

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TODAY...

* WHAT...Visibility one quarter to one half mile in dense fog.

* WHERE...Portions of east central and northeast Kansas and
  central, north central, northeast, northwest and west central
  Missouri.

* WHEN...Until noon CST today.

* IMPACTS...Hazardous driving conditions due to low visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If driving, slow down, use your headlights, and leave plenty of
distance ahead of you.

Here is the latest reading from my Acurite Atlas for Blue Springs Weather. Current temperature 41.5 degrees. He have had a low of 37.9 degrees today. Barometric pressure at 29.95 inches and steady. Relative humidity at 98%. Winds are at 6 mph from the NE. Dew point at 43 degrees. Skies are cloudy. Foggy with a visual range of 0.10 miles. We had some drizzle early this morning about 5am from the fog moving into the area.

Looking at today’s forecast, we are still under a marginal chance of severe weather today according to the Storm Prediction Center. According to all the convective models. I would say that the critical time range for severe weather is between 7 pm and 2 am Wednesday morning. CAPEs seem to be just above 1000. Looking at sounding models for our area, they show the possiblity of a marginal tornado, though the Storm Prediction Center shows a very low chance of this. Tornados can happen at any time of the year and any point, it is just that they are less likly in the winter and fall time frame. Dew points will be around 60 and below during that window so there is some moisture in the air that will provide plenty of moisture for possbile severe thunderstorms.

That is about it for today. God should make it somewhat interesting this evening. I will keep an eye on things and update you with Blue Springs Weather as I see any changes. Take care everyone and be safe this evening. MP