Good morning. This Winter Weather Update is from the morning of January 6, 2024. If you are reading this a day later, it is old data and you need to go to my Facebook page or my most recent blog post if I have one.
I have been watching the models, and we may have some snow that can hinder driving and make roads slightly dangerous. The key to a safe drive is TIRES with GOOD tread! You will have issues getting around if your tires do not have good tread
Looking at the Weather Prediction Center we are looking at up to 40% change of snow accumulations at 4 inches or greater for the Jackson County area. The break down of snow amounts for Tuesday January 9, 2024 is this:
Precipitation Chances 1″ or greater of snow accumulation – 90% 2″ or greater of snow accumulation – 60% 4″ or greater of snow accumulation – 30%
Winter Weather Update from WPCWinter Weather Update for Snow amounts
Looking at the NAM model for snow amounts is the perfect esample why I don’t like snow amounts for the usual models I use for severe weather. They are shows 5+ inches of snow and all it does is give me a good belly laugh. These are the things that the Media are going to EAT up instead of heading over to the Weather Prediction Center and getting the correct model for snow amounts.
Severity will be minor according to the Severity index. But that ALL depends on your tire condition. I am sure the NWS will kick off a winter weather advisory / watch soon.
That is pretty much it for today. Stay away from the media for a bit. They are really going nuts out there with this stuff. I would go with the one that is less dramatic on their posts and television forecasts. Take care everyone and enjoy your weekend. I will keep you posted on social media or do another blog post if there are any more changes to this forecast.
Good evening. It looks like rain throughout the evening and well into Christmas. Even though the GFS shows snow, the Weather Prediction Center shows nothing is expected. Temperatures will be in the 50s and 60s until about Sunday evening, about 6 pm, when the temperature will tank. The temperature will be around 36° F by noon.
GFS TemperatureHRRR Precipitation TypeWinter Weather Outlook for Christmas
The sun is pretty active, according to the Space Weather Live website. We had a fairly large earthquake in China at 6.3 magnitude and it killed 191 people. We also had a Volcanic eruption the day before the earthquake in Iceland. Caused by the Coronal hole that passed in front of us a few days before.
Make sure you bring your rain jacket. Wet weather is on the horizon starting Friday, December 15, 2023, at about noon. This forecast will be short, sweet, and to the point.
HRRR Precipitation Type for 6 pm UTC or noon CST
The Weather Prediction Center shows rain throughout the day tomorrow. When the rain starts it looks like it may be about 51° F by the time it starts.
Here is the latest Blue Springs weather and forecast. Good morning. The weather for Blue Springs Saturday snow did not happen like it was discussed on my previous post. Enjoy the sunshine. We will shift to an overcast starting at 1 pm. Winds will be a little calmer today. We will have a peak wind gust at 18 miles per hour by 10 am.
Blue Springs Weather HRRR average cloud cover model at 1 pm CST.Blue Springs Weather HRRR Wind Gust model at 10 am CST
We are not expecting any precipitation at this time. The temperature will hit a high of 45° F.
There’s not a whole lot going on today. Enjoy your Sunday! MP
Good morning. Here is the Sunday weather forecast, but first, our current weather conditions. I hope everyone has had a great weekend. We had some rain over the past 24 hours. It measured at 0.08 inches of rain. The temperature was at 32° F this morning at 6 am. It is now 30° F. Skies are cloudy, and winds are calm as I look out at the windmill in our backyard. The most breeze we have dealt with is nine miles per hour out of the WSW. Pressure is sitting at 29.91 inches of mercury.
Current Weather
Here is the latest Sunday weather forecast. I was looking at the HRRR Precipitation type. I see a small low-pressure system that will be moving through the area. It will bring some possible rain. The pressure will dip to about 29.70 inches of mercury by 8 pm this evening. We may get a few sprinkles or two in the evening, but our chances will increase by midnight tonight into Monday.
HRRR Precipitation Type for 2 am UTC or 8 pm CST
Sunday Weather Forecast
Our Temperature will reach a high of 46° F by 2 pm. We may get some peak throughs of sunshine, but overcast will prevail later today.
Lots of exciting events have occurred from our active sun. I don’t downplay that people got hurt from a 7.6 magnitude earthquake. I prayed yesterday for quick recovery and safety in the Philippines. The sun has a tremendous impact on our planet’s environment and weather. Just like the sun is a type of Christ in the Bible, which affects our climate, God controls our temperature and environment, and it is God that provides the signs from heaven to reveal the events. That is about it. Take care. MP
Here is the latest Tuesday Weather Forecast. Looking at the long-range GFS models, our next event is Thursday. The start time is about noon and ends at 6 pm on Thursday. Precipitation amounts are minimal, according to the GFS. It shows 0.39 inches of rain when all is said and done.
GFS Precipitation Type model for Thursday, November 30, 2023GFS Precipitation model after rain event on Thursday.
Today, we will hit a high of about 42° F by 3 pm. Skies will be mostly clear to clear and there may be a point in the day we encounter an overcast.
Good morning. Here is the Sunday Forecast, but first, the measurements and current weather. I am ready for the summer now—enough of this white stuff. I walked out to get the Stratus and get measurements. We ended with 2.4 inches of snow with a liquid equivalent of .27 inches. That makes the ratio 8.9 inches of snow to 1 inch of liquid. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) was off by about an inch. God said, “Here is a little more to grow on.” He is in control. The WPC is still a more accurate source than the snow amounts for others.
The current temperature is 25° F. Skies are mostly cloudy, and winds are three miles per hour out of the northwest. The relative humidity is at 92%. The barometric pressure is at 29.83 inches of mercury. The radar is pretty clear, and the atmosphere is pretty dry now.
RadarWater Vapor Loop
Here is the Sunday Forecast for today. We will hit a high of 36° F, give or take, by 3 pm. It will be a bit breezy today, with wind gusts peaking at about 27-28 miles per hour by noon today. Winds should begin to calm down at about 6 pm tonight.
TemperatureWind Gust
Lots of activity on the sun’s surface. There are still lots of sunspots. The sun is trying to hold on to that solar maximum before it goes back to sleep and becomes dormant again.
That is all I have to talk about today. Take care. MP
Good morning. Here is the latest winter weather update. I was looking at the latest models. The start time is about 2 pm for rain, and shifts to snow by 5 pm. The Weather Prediction Center still shows a mix as this system moves through the area. The snow probability of one inch or greater has shifted to about 40-50% for the Blue Springs Area, and 60-70% of snow amounts to 1 inch and greater for Independence and Kansas City. With snow amounts of 2 inches and greater, the percentage drops substantially for all areas, so I would not count on more than an inch of accumulation, if any.
WPC Weather MapHRRR Type for winter weather update.HRRR Precipitation TypeWPC Precipitation amount probabilities
Precipitation amounts for the HRRR show too much snow. It sits at 1.8 inches of snow by 10 pm, and the NAM shows snow amounts that are way too much at 4 inches plus. The reason why I don’t subscribe to those is because of the Weather Prediction Center. Don’t hold your breath for an accumulation of 4 inches, or even one inch for that matter, for Blue Springs.
NAM Snow amounts after system passes throughHRRR Snow Amounts by 10 pm CST
The current temperature is about 26° F. The HRRR models show a high of almost 39° F, give or take, by 1 pm. After that, the temperature will begin to fall, and it looks to hover around 33° F by evening.
HRRR Temperatures
That is about it for today. If anything else changes, I will likely post it on Facebook directly. Take care. MP
Good morning. There seems to be a lot of talk about a winter weather forecast this weekend. Most media are dramatizing it and saying we will get a significant measurable amount. If you are new here, you will soon discover that my weather forecasts, especially the winter ones, will be significantly different and sometimes the opposite of what the media says. I have had people who do this sort of thing for a living turn around and tell me that my forecasts are wrong because of whatever atmospheric 10k dollar words they use. I always say we will have to wait and see. Once the event ended, my prediction was correct.
I will be the first to tell you that I am not always accurate, and I always tell folks to grab other sources and compare and go based on what you see. Every once in a while, I get some hecklers that try and put a bad name on my site and they share my page in other groups saying this guy is terrible don’t use him he does this, that, and the other. I smile because people begin to gravitate to my site and I end up increasing in followers and traffic and the people realize that, hey this guy is pretty accurate. Free advertising. Anyway, enough of the rambling from me. How about this Winter Weather Forecast?
Looking at the medium- and long-range models and the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) at this point, it is looking like a do n’t-hold-your-breath sort of forecast. It is still really early in the game, even though we are three days out from the event. Don’t bank on any sort of significant amounts of snowfall. In fact, I will go as far as it being a wintery mix and we would be lucky to have any accumulation.
Inconsistencies in the Winter Weather Forecast
I base my winter weather forecast on these observations and sources. There are some inconsistencies with these models. One inconsistency is comparing GFS 10-1 totals, NAM totals, and the probabilities from Winter WX model totals on the WPC. Here are the differences and below that I will put the images.
GFS shows a significant measurable amount of 2.5 inches
NAM shows a measurable amount of 1.4 inches
The WPC says the chance of snow at 1 inch or greater is 30-40% and 40-50% closer to the downtown KC area.
The other thing to consider is that we are still hovering around a solar maximum that negatively affects snow and winter weather. Why? The temperatures are higher during these periods, and at a solar minimum, the temperatures are lower. Our solar cycles are moving into a Grand Solar Minimum, which you can learn about here. A Grand Solar Minimum is multiple cycles where the sun is not as active, even during a solar maximum on those solar cycles.
WPC Map shows a mix for Saturday into SundayNAM Snow AmountGFS Snow AmountWPC Snow ProbabilityCurrent Sunspot image from Space Weather Live
I always steer towards the WPC model because that model is spot on practically every single time with winter forecasts.
One of the things that is similar is the timing. Every model shows a start time of 6 pm on Saturday evening. It also shows leaving the area by 3 am on Sunday. As we progress, I will post a short statement on social media or another blog post if it is extensive. That is about it for today.
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Good morning. Here is the Wednesday weather forecast for Wednesday, November 22, 2023. Models were about 3 degrees off this morning. We hit a low of 28 degrees. That said, my forecast for today will be 3 degrees lower from the reporting HRRR models on the College of Dupage site. My Atlas is about two degrees lower than the official COOP National Weather Service provided Nimbus, sitting at 26° F. Skies are clear this morning. Winds are calm.
There is not a whole lot going on for today’s forecast. It’s pretty quiet, and even the WPC shows nothing but a warm front to our west. Clear skies will dominate the day. We may shift to an overcast to mostly cloudy by about 11 am today, but it will only last about an hour.
Weather Prediction Center model for today.
As for today’s Wednesday weather forecast, we will be struggling with temperature for a possible high of 41° F (Based on the adjusted temperature).
HRRR Temperature Model for today’s weather forecast at 2 pm CST or 8 pm UTC.
Winds may become breezy around 11 am with a peak gust of 17 mph, give or take.
HRRR Winds gusts for 4 pm CST or 10 pm UTC.
That is about it for today. Take care and I hope you have your Thanksgiving prepped and ready! Please consider visiting the rest of my posts here. MP
